If You Want an Election and Not a Coronation You Must Act Today - Wednesday Edition

by: philgoblue

Wed Nov 28, 2007 at 12:54:41 PM EST

As most folks know last night the MDP Central Committee vote 39-1 to submit a new Primary Plan to the DNC.  Chairman Mark Brewer will submit such a plan to the DNC Committee's Rules Committee on Saturday.

Here's my take on what happened....

If that [the MDP CC voting on Tuesday to substitute the January primary for an earlier plan to hold a 9 February caucus -- it did happen] happens, Brewer will file the primary plan with the Democratic National Committee's Rules Committee on Saturday. The DNC likely will threaten to strip the party of its 128 national convention delegates for holding an election before Feb. 5, but Brewer thinks the delegates ultimately will be seated [he's wrong, see Rule 20.C.1.a. of  the Delegate Selection Rules].

...But he noted the executive committee could change its decision anytime before he meets Saturday with the DNC Rules Committee [presumably they could afterward to, say on Monday].

Saturday [1 December] also is another deadline, since county clerks are supposed to deliver absentee ballots to local clerks by then. Brewer said there are serious constitutional issues with forcing candidates to be on the ballot and wants lawmakers to stop trying to get the names back on so clerks can get the ballots printed.

I'm guessing that Brewer is allowing the 15 January Primary folks to get there say with the DNC.  That's a smart move -- a good chair allows all sides to have their say -- and the reason for near unanimity on the Tuesday night vote.

However, the DNC will indeed refuse to accept the MDP's 15 January Primary Plan on Saturday.

Michigan's current 15 January Primary Plan violates Rule 20 of the DNC's Delegate Selection Plan (by breaking into the 5 February Window set aside for Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina).

At that point reality will sink in (not only will a 15 January Primary not select delegates, but by Saturday it'll be too late to organize such a primary with all the candidates on the ballot and I don't really think anyone but a small minority want that, also it will be too late to even organize a primary so my guess is that on Friday the clerks will print ballots with just Clinton, Dodd, Gravel and Kucinich).  The MDP CC will have to meet again for the final showdown vote on whether to stick with a now clearly NO DELEGATE-selecting "primary" on 15 January or a 9 February Caucus that will mean Michigan gets delegates, campaigns, candidate visits and a Michigan voice on the issues.

And I think the 9 February Caucus folks will win the Showdown Vote because they were able to win the opposition to the implementation of the 15 January Primary when all Democratic Senators voted NAY (or not present) on the Immediate Effect of HB 4507 (the revised Republican 15 January Primary Bill) and when a majority of House Democrats broke with their leadership (Dillon and Sak) and followed Representative Miller in defeating the Immediate Effect of HB 4507 in the House.  If the 9 February Forces have two wins among the electeds then it appears likely they'll have the votes to win in the MDP CC.

So, I'm going to take Debbie Dingell at her word and conclude that the 9 February Forces are made up of Edwards supporters and "the unions," including the powerful UAW.  Here's Dingell's take on how the Forces of Coronation lost the battle in the Michigan House and the House Democratic Caucus despite a full court press from Dingell and (reportedly) Granholm herself.

Democratic National Committeewoman Debbie Dingell -- who along with Gov. Jennifer Granholm backs Clinton -- blamed the Edwards campaign for derailing the vote.

"It's very clear that the Edwards people have been at the forefront of trying to keep the primary from happening in Michigan," Dingell said Tuesday. "They felt they would have had a better chance at a caucus" because union members who like Edwards would make up a disproportionate share of Democratic caucus voters.

Also, it appears that the rumors that MDP Chairman Mark Brewer is in favor of a caucus (maybe not a 9 February Caucus, but that'll be the only option left after Saturday's DNC rendition of Monty Python's Knights Who Say NI) are true.

Here's our old buddy Saul who might be saying this for his own perposes (duh) but it probably includes a grain of truth:

Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis blamed both the Edwards campaignand Michigan Democratic Chairman Mark Brewer for keeping the names off the ballot.

Both have "been working for months to scuttle Michigan's presidential primary, working in open opposition to Gov. Granholm...."

So if the Forces of the 9 February Caucus have Brewer, the UAW and other unions, and the "Edwards people," then the 15 January Primary will be defeated in the MDP CC on Saturday or Sunday or Monday.

By the way, from what I've heard all this talk about how "the Edwards people" are behind this is greatly exaggerated.  From what I've heard Bonior and the campaign have stayed very far away from this issue.  And while it's true that endorsers like Bart Stupack and Fred Miller have been at the forefront of support for a DNC-sanctioned caucus, other endorsers haven't (heck JRE-endorser Doug Bennett (D, Muskegon) voted for HB 4507 yesterday).  Still, the first draft of history will state that when it came time to fight to support democracy in Michigan, the unions and Edwards people were at the forefront (something I'm proud to say I played a very little part in) while Hillary people opposed a real election and Obama's leadership appears to have been AWOL (though some of his grassroots folks were active, most weren't).

It looks like there is a good chance we'll end up with a three-candidate "primary" (the Pledge Breakers Clinton and Dodd and that guy Dennis who couldn't find a notary, oh and the loon from Alaska, but ... come on) on 15 January that will select no delegates.  However, the MDP will also decide to go with the DNC-sanctioned 9 February Caucus and that will be where Michigan Democrats select their candidate delegates (there is the outside chance that the DNC may allow Michigan to hold a caucus just barely inside the 5 February window and if that happens, it'd be, on balance, a good thing).  Once this is done we'll be at a point where we can have candidate visits, campaign offices, mailings, ads, delegates to the National Convention, and a voice for Michigan.  I can't wait.

But, we've still got to make it happen, so here's what you can do:

1. Help the Forces of a 9 February Caucus by contacting the Michigan Democratic Party:

Call the MDP: (517) 371-5410
Email the MDP: midemparty@michigandems.com

A sample email:

I urge Chairman Brewer and the MDP Central Committee to opt-out of the 15 January beauty contest and go to a DNC-sanctioned primary where candidates will campaign, Michigan Democrats can vote for who they want to vote for, and our votes can actually choose delegates to the National Convention.

I want a DNC-sanctioned caucus on or after 5 February so there can be campaigning in Michigan, so the candidates will address Michigan issues, so that all the candidates will be on the ballot, so that we'll be choosing delegates and not having a mere beauty contest, and so that the DNC will be in a position of power to enforce primary calendar reforms for 2012. And I want it now, since we're losing valuable time when the candidates could be coming to Michigan this month.

Sincerely,
Name
Phone Number
Email address
MDP Party ID (if you've got one) and County Party Membership status (if you're in one)

If that is too long, just say

"I'm against the 15 January primary/beauty contest and for a DNC-sanctioned 9 February Caucus."

2. While we do this with a heavy heart, we believe that it is necessary to have the voices of rank-and-file Michigan Democrats heard on this issue.  Therefore, we our organizing a Implementation Challenge to the Michigan Democratic Party's decision to utilize January 15, 2008 primary as the method for selecting delegates to the National Convention.  This violates both the DNC Rules on primary timing, as well as Michigan's own delegate selection plan.  We believe that this protest is legally correct and also will assist those MDP CC members who support a caucus.

If you would like to join us we can send you a form for you to sign, notarize and fax back to us by 5:00 pm today.  Simply send us an email at giveusavoice2008@gmail.com

Update: Here's the revised Delegate Selection Plan: http://michigandems.com/2008DS...