| I suppose that over the next few days, we're going to hear an increasing number of people tell us about how Michigan went for McCain back in 2000, and how it makes him some kind of presumptive favorite here. Let's review a few things, and then come back to the present. First, back in 2000, Michigan was declared as the firewall for George Bush. It was a state Bush had to win, because everyone had gone all squirrelly over McCain's win in New Hampshire. Who declared Michigan to be Bush's firewall? None other than Beal City's own John Mathias Engler. Most of us remember that, and remember what came next. The glee with which the state's Democrats crossed party lines and helped to embarrass both Engler and Bush by handing the state to McCain. McCain won Michigan because he managed to capture the key voting bloc of mischief makers, people motivated by a desire to see Engler humiliated on the national stage. This year, he comes to Michigan without that advantage. The mischief makers have thrown their weight behind an even wackier candidate ... Ron Paul. So, when you read things like: McCain campaigned in Michigan, hoping to reprise his win there in 2000 just as he did in New Hampshire. staggering one-time poll leader Mitt Romney.
...you're reading something based on numbers and not actual understanding. McCain could very repeat a victory here, despite the loss of the mischief bloc (which is itself highly disorganized), because his ground organization here is said to be much better this time around than it was last time. In fact, word on the street is that the GOP leadership, much of which has thrown its weight behind Native Son Romney, was a-scared of a convention, because the local party posts have been taken over by McCain partisans. We'll see ... but let's keep in mind that McCain didn't actually win Michigan last time around; he was handed the state's delegates courtesy voters who were motivated more by a hatred of John Engler and a desire to embarrass him than out of genuine support for John McCain. |
