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"Primary" Thoughts

by: philgoblue

Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 11:00:43 AM EST


The final statewide numbers (from CNN).

Clinton: 55% -- 328,151 votes
Uncommitted: 40% -- 236,723 votes
Kucinich: 4% -- 21, 708
Dodd: 1% -- 3,853 votes
Gravel: 0% -- 2,363 votes

Overall, I'm just amazed that 40% of those that voted, took the time to go out and vote for "nobody" given there was no campaign to speak of, just some small grassroots work on LTEs and email lists. Especially given that Team Hillary Michigan sent out glossy mailers and held rallies for Hillary. I also credit the media which around here and I know in Lansing, got the word out that Edwards and Obama supporters were advocating Uncommitted.
philgoblue :: "Primary" Thoughts
County Results

Results from some of the larger and more Democratic counties (U=Uncommitted, C=Clinton, K=Kucinich)

Washtenaw: U 47, C 44, K 9. A major county with an Uncommitted Win! To which I can only say: Go Blue!
Kent: C 50, U 45, K 3. I really feel like the local activists for Edwards and Obama were able to hustle out hear and get media and LTEs and email lists and flip the national average by 10%. Congrats to Celia, Melissa and all of us that played a role.
Wayne: C 50, U 46, K 3.
Oakland: C 51, U 44, K 4.
Macomb: C 64, U 31, K 3. Disappointing.

So, in the big cities and in our premier college town, among our most informed Democrats, Uncommitted did very well, about 10 points better than state-wide (other than Macomb).

Seems like the message just didn't get out to some of the medium cities in Michigan.
Saginaw: C 61, U 36, K 2.
Genesee: C 57, U 40, K 2.
Muskegon: C 61, U 36, K 2.
Livingston: C 59, U 34, K 4.

though other medium cities did vote for Uncommitted at a rate higher than the state-wide rate:
Kalamazoo: C 52, U 42, K 5.
Ingham: C 52, U 41, K 5.

It'll be interesting to see where the 5 delegates from the Third Congressional District go. My guess is 3 Hillary and 2 Uncommitted with maybe the Alternate going Uncommitted.

On Turnout

In Michigan, according to the CNN website:
Total Voters: 1,456,098 voters, a 21% turnout among registered voters.
Republican-ballot Turnout: 864,303 voters, or 59% of total turnout.
Democrat-ballot Turnout: 591,795 voters, or 40% of total turnout.

We haven't had a primary in years, so it's near impossible to compare apples and oranges as far as turnout goes since caucuses are Party-run and have far fewer polling places (but, so you know, 162,929 people voted in the 2004 Democratic caucus).

However, what we can look at is comparative turnout with Iowa and New Hampshire. In both cases, Democratic turnout far surpassed Republicans (68% Democratic, 32% Republican in Iowa; 58% Democratic and 42% Republican in New Hampshire, both traditional swing states).

In the New Hampshire primary 58% of registered voters participated. In Iowa, turnout was a historically high 17%, which seems low, but remember you're asking folks to run out after dinner and sit in a room with their neighbors to discuss politics for about an hour and a half.

In Michigan, our turnout was a dismal 21% of registered voters. Of those Michiganders that voted, 59% voted in the Republican primary and just 40% in the Democratic "primary."

So, here in Jennifer Granholm's Michigan, the Republicans, even though they're disheartened in general, outpolled Democrats 3-2, reversing national trends of Democrats outvoting Republicans almost 2-1. Michigan, with its Blue voting record, a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators should have been part of the nation-wide enthusiasm for our Democratic candidates and the Democratic Party in general. We weren't, largely because our governor was able to strongarm our Party into this farcical primary. The legacy of Jennifer's "primary" is confused and angry voters as well as unenthusiastic and very angry activists. The effects of this purposeful fiasco will be felt in November for the detriment of the Michigan Democratic Party, Michigan and maybe even America.

How Did Democrats Vote?

Remarkably, 40% of those Democrats that did turn out voted for "nobody," with another 5% voting for minor candidates, one who dropped out 2 weeks ago, while from my math it seems that about 10% of Democratic voters switched over to the Republican ballot.

If we could look at the Democratic vote on both ballots it would be something like.
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Uncommitted: 36%
Various Republicans: 11%
Kucinich or Dodd: 4%

No word on spoiled votes as far as I know, but about 98% of those spoiled ballots would have been Write-Ins for someone other than Hillary.
Add in that apparently 15% of the Clinton vote was made up of folks that would have voted Edwards or Obama had they been on the ballot, and even among those who bothered to go out yesterday, Hillary was the first choice of significantly less than 1/2 of all Michigan Democrats even though she was the only candidate on the ballot.

There's also the interesting fact that 2% of those voting on the Republican side voted Uncommitted. I wonder if those were mostly Democrats who heard the message that "the Democratic ballot is largely meaningless, so vote in the Republican primary" and the message "vote Uncommitted" and combined them.

For a study of exit polls, see nirmal's What do the Exit Polls Tell Us About the Michigan Primary? which is very impressive, though it's really hard to tell what would have happened in Michigan had their been an actual campaign (heck, if Michigan was this early and important there probably would have at least been a Michigan UAW endorsement and from all indications I've heard, that would have gone to Edwards). One of the many interesting facts that come out of the exit polls and nirmal's reading is that

According to the exits, the Republican primary vote consisted of 7% Democrats, 25% Independents, and 68% Republicans.

So, for all the scheming of Kos for Romney and others for Paul and Huckabee, must Democrats who didn't stay home, stayed with their Party. The hoped for or feared Democratic ballot-switcher was far rarely than most believed. That's good news all around. And, a plurality of those Democratic and independent voters who went with the Republican ballot voted for McCain rather than the candidates of the failed mischief-makers.

Now, we'll have to see how the delegates are divided among Hillary and Uncommitted in the Congressional Districts and what Uncommitted delegates are elected and which candidate they support. In some ways, there is a second vote for Michigan's delegates on 29 March at the Congressional District Conventions. Join our Party -- it needs some fixing -- and come to the Convention.

Oh, and by the way there was a story on what Democratic activists were thinking heading into the primary by Matt Miller in the Lansing State Journal on Saturday which was very well done (not to mention I'm quoted in it). And, yes, it was this blog that was mentioned on CNN and got a minute of national air time on Wolf Blitzer's The Situation Room (though I still have to check my tivo to watch it, I've gotten several emails, including one from my parents who were largely blissfully ignorant of my blogging, phone calls, and folks coming up to me that saw it. I don't really watch TV, but it's amazing how many people heard that story. Well, that's how little ole voters and activists like me can get heard, just sign up for a blogger account and starting writing and doing. Heck, the governor calls me philgoblue, though now she probably prefaces it with "that damned."
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"Primary" Thoughts | 30 comments
Crossposted at the Michigan for Edwards blog (4.00 / 1)
http://michiganforedwards.blog...

Another piece of the puzzle I'm very interested in is what percentage of Democratic ballots were spoiled.  Anyone know?

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

Not yet, but I'll be finding out for Kalamazoo. (4.00 / 1)
Phil, do you know who the 'connected' Edwards supporters are in the 6th? I know a few, but they do not seem to know who any others are (since we did not have a campaign). I need to get in touch with them (see my diary). memiller55 at charter dot net.
[ Parent ]
Stopped by County Clerk this morning - Kalamazoo results: (4.00 / 2)
Poll Book 12909
Clinton 6478
Dodd 81
Gravel 63
Kucinich 599
Uncommitted 5157
Valid Votes 12378
Spoiled 531 4.1% of poll book
[ Parent ]
Washtenaw & Jackson Counties (4.00 / 1)
Together totaled just over 1,000 spoilt Democratic ballots.
[ Parent ]
Can you tell me where you found this information? (4.00 / 1)
[ Parent ]
On the Internets (4.00 / 1)
Here are the results for Jackson and  Washtenaw Counties.

http://www.co.jackson.mi.us/El...

http://electionresults.ewashte...

249+607 write-ins = 856 spoiled ballots

My earlier math was incorrect.

[ Parent ]
Spoiled ballots (4.00 / 2)
Not sure what you want to understand by determining the number of spoiled ballots.

Spoiled ballots are ballots that have errors, and thus the voter requests a new ballot, because they don't want to vote the previous ballot they were issued.  There is no limit to the amount of times you can request a new ballot.

They are not ballots that were write ins, and thus not counted.  Spoiled ballots are not counted, because they were not cast.

"What is the the number of write in votes that were not counted?", is a valid question, but these votes should not be called spoiled.

Forgive me for being technical.

[ Parent ]
Spoiled ballots are "counted" (4.00 / 1)
but they are not tallied.

They are counted in the poll book, to ensure the number of votes cast equals the number of ballots issues minus the number of ballots spoiled.

[ Parent ]
So, how can we learn the (4.00 / 1)
number of write-in ballots that weren't counted?

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast
[ Parent ]
This should be on the SoS website (4.00 / 1)
but is not, so far as I can tell. (By 'should', I mean this is information that should be part of the public record - not that I had heard it would be there).
[ Parent ]
memiller was close (4.00 / 2)
Using the provided numbers

Poll Book 12909
Clinton 6478
Dodd 81
Gravel 63
Kucinich 599
Uncommitted 5157
Valid Votes 12378
not valid votes -  531  or 4.1% of voters poll book

12909 - 12378 = 531 uncounted (non spoiled) ballots, most of these are probably write ins.  Other possibilities are over voted (but not spoiled) ballots, and people who occasionally cast a blank ballot.

There are some additional remarks in the poll book that are supposed to document over votes, but I don't believe that would be easily accessible.

[ Parent ]
You are right (4.00 / 3)
I used the term 'spoiled' without thinking about it because Phil had, but that has a different meaning as you point out. The correct term for what we are talking about is 'cast ballots without a valid vote'.
[ Parent ]
Three More Positives From Yesterday (4.00 / 5)
1. Right to Work (for Less) apparently failed miserably.
2. The word is that the Dean recall effort in Grand Rapids was largely a failure with petitioners collecting very few signatures in the morning and then going home.  Heck I even heard a story of one $9/hour petitioner who was encouraged to call Robert Dean himself and the Reverand Representative talked the guy into quitting.
3. Look, everyone knows I'm not pleased with our Party and its "leadership." But with so many Uncommitted delegates up for grabs at the District Conventions, maybe Democratic voters can be encouraged to join the MDP so they can vote in the 29 March District Conventions so they know the Uncommitted Delegates are really supporters of their favored candidate.

So, as I said, our Party needs some fixing, and the way to do that is stay active and join the MDP and work for reform from within: http://www.michigandems.com/

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

WWJ radio focusing on city of Detroit's vote (4.00 / 2)
on WWJ radio this morning, they put a lot of emphasis on how Clinton lost to Uncommitted in a very large drubbing from voters in the city of Detroit. I didn't catch the exact numbers, but they were huge. The rest of Wayne helped Clinton quite a bit.

I think it was Skubick (ick) who was waxing on about what this might mean for Hillary Clinton in other areas where there is a large African-American population. He theorized that the Detroit result may indicate she may lose SC to Obama. I think that's pretty stupid analysis, as the stats show that many of the Uncommitted voters in MI would have gone for either Obama or Edwards - and, they didn't campaign here. Comparing Michigan's apple to SC's orange is just silly. But hey, it was coming from Skubick (ick), so whaddya expect.

I'm curious if his analysis will catch fire with the media who seems bent on hyping a big, ugly racial controversy between Obama and Clinton. They've been enflaming the comments from the Clinton and Obama camps to try to make racial tolerance the central difference between these two candidates, and I find that to be repulsive.

HuffPo covering the issue (4.00 / 3)
I just noticed this on Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

a snippet:

Among black voters, Clinton was crushed by "uncommitted," 26-70. If that kind of margin among African Americans continues into future primaries, she faces major problems in the heavily black January 26 South Carolina primary and in the states with large black populations going to the polls on February 5 -- so-called Tsunami Tuesday. Clinton carried whites in Michigan by a 61-30.

Of course, this also ignores that Clinton did better than Uncommitted with women, with people aged 45-up, oh, and she generally did better in all areas than she did when she was running against more than just Dennis Kucinich on a ballot.

I don't see how the MI Democratic primary results can be construed as shedding any light on other races.

(However, I do find it very interesting that once again, a lot of polls indicated McCain would win or be too-close-to-call with Romney. Romney took a decisive win, fueled by conservatives - not D or I crossovers. What this proves is yet again, pre-race polling is not revealing reliable results).

[ Parent ]
Problem for Clinton (4.00 / 2)
Even as a Clinton supporter, I'll freely admit she needs to close the gap with Obama on Black voters, young voters and male voters.  She's not doing very well with Black voters anywhere except on this blog and it will cost her South Carolina.

That being said, her problem with black voters and new voters is more of an issue in November than it is in winning the nomination.  And as much as the press likes to turn this into a Clinton problem, the other side of the coin is just as big of a problem or perhaps bigger for Obama.  In a divide between older voters and younger voters and female voters and male voters, a Democrat is better off having the older voters and the female voters in securing the nomination.  But again, they both need to close their gaps.

[ Parent ]
Black voters (4.00 / 2)
Although many AA voters are supporting Obama, I don't think many of them would be too disappointed with another Clinton in the White House. Seems like a nice problem to have:  
"You can have a BMW or a Lexus. Which one do you want???"

Nothing is easier than solving a problem on the back of the poor. People who don't have lobbyists or clout.
[ Parent ]
Her young voter problem (4.00 / 1)
Is one of non-college young voters.  For much of the same reason Obama carried the more affluent areas surrounding Ann Arbor (affluent whites) he carries the college towns.

College students such as myself, who come from working class backgrounds, join the working men and women in our age range and support Hillary because, even though we are protected from some of the economy by the ivory towers of academia, we still see our parents struggle to make ends meet and know that we will soon be entering the work force.  We're going to need more than hope and vision-setting to tackle the problems we face -- we're going to need leadership, strength, and experience.  In a word, we're going to need Hillary Clinton.

Hillary speaks for me.

[ Parent ]
the LV debate last night put those problems to rest hopefully (4.00 / 1)
Repulsive is right. Skubicky The Shill has a very stupid analysis as you correctly say. The conservative leaning AOL poll shows Clinton leading in SC, but we all know by now there is barely a poll nor pollster to be trusted any more than the media and pundits. While he is too busy drooling, he's missing the national news that a truce was called (we say inside party leaders gave Obama a talking to of what dangerous territory and harm he's been doing) and a new tone and understanding was immediately obvious in the debate last night that Skuby DooDoo must have not watched. Oh Timmeh and Willard tried their best to inflame it further but our fine candidates didn't let it happen, in fact they ended up controlling the debate and not the flummoxed bully Timmeh. If you haven't watched it get out your popcorn and go to MSNBC.  

It was impressive, all 3 of ours were impressive. They're baaaacckk in top form, but you'll forgive me if I add Hillary never lost hers in the first place, nor her class. And how did the debate go? Well, when even Tweety Methane was gobsmacked by her performance and calls her powerful and played the power play of the night, I don't have to bother listing the 10 major news organizations that I have excerpts sitting right here raving about her to tell you who they also think won and looks the most Presidential. They just can't compete with her knowledge, experience, proposals, and intellect. And Obama has been put on notice nobody is going to tolerate race baiting. Hillary immediately fired any of her connections that tried to explain themselves wrong, he needs to start doing the same and get the air cleaned up once and for all.  
 

[ Parent ]
I give up. Who's Tweety Methane? (4.00 / 3)
Wait let us guess. Is it Chris Matthews?

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson
[ Parent ]
See Exit poll stats (4.00 / 2)
Congrats on getting a shoutout! I hope it will lead to more people here having their positive viewpoint expressed and noted.

Studied the Exit polls yet? They are fascinating in the breakdowns. Just like the county by county breakdowns, I sure loved seeing so many 70's for Hillary. Ouch, that left a collective mark. Bruising even.

It's fair to pointout that Uncommitted doesn't just mean voting for "nobody", and I know that doesn't mean any of our mighty fine candidates are worthless like that sounds, but Uncommitted also means Undecided. Some of them did vote that way, undecided. There's also a long time to go in fast paced political jockeying, and deciding, that any delegate has the free will to change their minds by March for whatever reason, which can go any way.

Hold on just a sec, my crystal ball has started glowing and levitating... OK, it's saying that 4 years from now that the real story is that Michigan, and this moment in history, is going to be credited with not only changing politics and the DNC forever, but more importantly the way primaries are implemented, conducted, and equally carried out. As in being THE catalyst of forging the path of true reform for the whole country. I'll suffer through our sacrifices and hardships today if it will improve our lot for everyone tomorrow. If our screwed up primary can help kickstart this process and evolve it by lightyears in one fell swoop, so be it. We're all going to be proud as punch then when they ALL say Michigan changed everything, that it started here first. (Everyone loves being number one don't they, not to mention being an historical first in the books that will be written about it and taught in schools)

That's a Vision Quest I'm going to be working hard for, to change things for the Highest Good For All Our Relations.    

How can getting stomped on (4.00 / 1)
and getting all muddy lead to reform at all, much less reform that put's Michigan near the front?

Everything I needed to know, I learned in Kindergarten.

Cheaters never prosper.
And remember, Debbie Dingell's plan with Saul is for a coin flip.

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

[ Parent ]
Irony ore (4.00 / 5)
Dear Phil, our sweet grasshopper, there is another old adage: "The iron ore thinks it is being tortured going through the fires, but the fine blade of steel looks back, and knows better."

Many of us here have went through so many political cycles, and went through much worse than this. Hard to believe isn't it unless you have the closet full of teeshirts that we do.

It's perspective. We all have a different one this is true. We all have valuable input. But it's the work and actions we actually put out that manifests true reforms. It takes patience and very hard work of all involved.

"The art of diplomacy is letting other people have your way."  

[ Parent ]
I agree (4.00 / 2)
Not only is an "uncommitted vote" possibly a vote for "Undecided," there were PAID efforts by Obama backers to get out the vote for Uncommitted.

Michigan Rep. John Conyers and his wife, Detroit city council member Monica Conyers, taped a radio advertisement Wednesday afternoon. In it, they called on Obama backers not to surrender their vote. They say on the radio spot that they intend to vote "uncommitted" and give Obama a chance to compete for those delegates in Denver. http://blog.washingtonpost.com...

A newly formed group, Detroiters for Uncommitted Voters, which also supports Obama, has campaigned door to door and on the phone asking people not to commit to any of the candidates listed on the ballot. Detroit News, http://adopt.specificclick.net...

A group of several hundred Michigan voters plans to knock on doors, make calls and hold rallies for an unconventional candidate in Tuesday's primary: uncommitted. The only way backers of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama or former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who withdrew their names from Michigan's Democratic primary ballot, can show their support is to vote uncommitted. AP, http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/d...

And still, with all these forces allied against her, she still won a state without campaigning in it.

We were successful in at least one thing - changing the face of the nominating process for good!

Hillary speaks for me.

[ Parent ]
Do we have an estimate of what percentage (4.00 / 1)
of Michigan Dems voted?
My fuzzy math that I did in my head (2.00 / 3)
leads me to guess that if total voter turnout was 21% and Republican-ballot voters outnumbered Democrats 3-2 that ...

Democratic turnout was an anemic 15%.

Sad that Jennifer's "primary" accomplished nothing but give Republicans free money and press and left Michigan Democrats dejected.

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

[ Parent ]
Well, at least the turn out was much more than the 225,000+ in the 2004 caucus. (4.00 / 2)

[ Parent ]
wow, impressive demonstration (1.00 / 2)
of poor reading comprehension, poor math skills and a weak knowledge of history.

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast
[ Parent ]
Pardon me? What are you trying to say? (4.00 / 2)

[ Parent ]
It's misleading to say people were voting for "nobody" (4.00 / 2)
especially if they were supporters of Edwards or Obama and those campaigns or their agents contacted them and urged them to vote "Uncommitted to vote for Obama."

Hillary speaks for me.
"Primary" Thoughts | 30 comments

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