Michigan Youth Vote Good News for Democrats

by: lpackard

Wed Jan 16, 2008 at 16:25:34 PM EST

Posted on behalf of Michael Connery, the author of Youth To Power, who blogs about the youth vote at http://www.futuremajority.com/. 

Despite low turnout due to bad weather and a virtually uncontested primary, young voters gave Democrats much to be happy about in yesterday's primary.  According to data released by CIRCLE (an organization that specializes in studying civic participation among 18 – 29 year olds), turnout among young voters in the Democratic Primary rivaled participation among conservative youth in the GOP primary, which was hotly contested.
 
Overall, 100,776 young voters aged 18-29 participated in yesterday's Democratic Primary, compared to 112,833 in the Republican Primary. Not only did almost as many young Democrats head to the polls on Tuesday, but young Democrats had a larger say in determining their party's nominee. Young voters made up 17% of the Democratic electorate compared to just 13% of Republican voters. These numbers are a far cry from turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire though, where young Democratic voters outnumbered Republican youth by about 2–1, and young voters outnumbered or rivaled turnout among 30-somethings and those over 65. 

Nevertheless, the numbers were good news for Democrats. Unlike in the first two primary states, Democrats did little campaigning in Michigan, and Senator Barack Obama, the most popular youth candidate on the Democratic side, was not on the ballot. The fact that Democrats were still able to compete with the Republican turnout, despite less than ideal conditions, suggests that the eventual Democratic nominee will have a significant advantage in Michigan come November.

Youth turnout was not the only surprise in yesterday's primary. While Clinton – running unopposed – gained a higher share of the youth vote than in the previous two contests, she still lost the youth vote to "uncommitted" by 48 – 43%, according to CNN exit polling. This defeat spanned both segments of the youth demographic – 18–24 and 25–29 year olds. It seemed to erase Clinton's gains among the older demographic, in which she narrowly beat Senator Obama by just 2% of the vote in New Hampshire. 

On the Republican side, young voters gave Mitt Romney a plurality of their votes, though it was a fairly tight race between the Governor and his top three opponents - McCain, Huckabee and Paul. So far, Republican youth have split their votes in the first three contests of the primary season: choosing Mike Huckabee in Iowa, and John McCain in New Hampshire. 

Lack of Election Day Registration also may have played a role in driving down overall turnout on Tuesday. Both Iowa and New Hampshire, which saw record youth turnout, allow voters to register to vote the day of their caucus or primary.