Florida Gov. Supports New Democratic Primary, Michigan Gov. Does Not

Much ado about nothing at this point (4.00 / 1)

I really think this will be over after Tueday's vote.

Then everyone will settle down, all states will attend and be seated at convention, it will be a love-fest and everyone will bet on board.  Michigan and Florida will put all their votes behind Obama (the likely nominee, let's be honest here) becauase Hillary will release them,

She's not been a big wave-maker up to this point, in order to live to fight another day, she will "fall in line" as her husband urged us all to do in 04.

After Tuesday, if what I predict comes to pass, all this talk of do-overs will fade away and any effort invested will have been for naught.

With that said I urge all who are putting time and effort into a do-over, go and find yourself a worthy candidate near by and help them.  That is an investment that can really pay off handsomely.  

Julie

To prepare for when your life flashes before your eyes, make sure it's fun to watch.

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by: JNelson @ Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:54:15 AM UTC

agree about finding a local candidate (0.00 / 0)

But, if things don't go as planned on Tuesday -- and Clinton wins Ohio and at least has a credible tie in Texas -- then the do-over in Michigan will be getting a huge push from large sections of the grassroots.

That being said, I do really hope this thing is over by Tuesday just before midnight -- though I believe we should have a Hillary v Obama Ohio Cage Match at the Thunder Dome: Two Candidates Enter, One Candidate Leaves!

Oh, and who ever is the nominee I think there will be sanctions -- the DNC will want something and Michigan is not well-loved right now among politically aware Democrats.  Michigan just isn't going to get fully seated.

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

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by: philgoblue @ Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 13:57:47 PM UTC

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The time has come Phil. (0.00 / 0)

I contend we will be seated and we will vote.  I say we make a wager.  If you are right I will give $25 to any Dem candidate of your chosing.  If I am right you give $25 to the Dem candidate I chose.

Deal?  :-)

Julie

To prepare for when your life flashes before your eyes, make sure it's fun to watch.

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by: JNelson @ Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 15:33:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Clinton may yet be the nominee (0.00 / 0)

You're both probably right.  There won't be a do-over election because the Republicans in the Michigan Legislature won't agree to pay for a new primary and the MDP isn't foolish enough to open up a huge box of snakes that would cause a civil war among Michigan Democrats disrupting local and Congressional races this spring.  That being said, the Democratic Presidential primary won't be over tomorrow night unless Obama can score solid wins in Texas and Ohio.  And that appears unlikely.

Keep in mind that it takes 2,025 delegates to become the Democratic nominee not counting the delegates from MI or FL.  According to CNN, Obama has 1369 total delegates to date (656 short) and Clinton has 1267 (758 short).  Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont combined offer under 400.  350 of the automatic delegates are still on the side-lines.  Sixteen states have yet to vote after tomorrow including Pennsylvania on April 22 where Clinton is currently up 9%.

All during February, the Obama campaign has been trying to create the impression of his inevitablity banking on a line-up of states last month that were widely acknowledged to be favorable to him well before they held their elections.  Obama's team has looked at the calender and understands that tomorrow is his third and last shot to win the nomination during the regular primary season.

To date, Obama hasn't fared well with his attempt to bank on his perceived inevitability.  He used a very friendly press to create that perception after Iowa.  But Hillary came back and won New Hampshire.  That was Strike One.  Obama then used a solid victory in South Carolina resulting from nasty race-based politics to attempt to spin inevitability going into Super Tuesday.  He had some high profile endorsements from people like Maria Shriver, Ted Kennedy and John Kerry.  But Clinton won California and Massachusetts on Super Tuesday.  Stike Two.

Tomorrow is Obama's last chance to put Clinton away.  His poll ratings have peaked over the past 10 days and the media has begun to ask tougher questions.  In little reported news, Clinton had her best fundraising month ever in February.  If she can win Ohio tomorrow and keep Obama close in Texas, a favorable spring primary schedule and the remaining automatic delegates (who are waiting to see if she can hang on) will make her the nominee.  Tomorrow, it's Obama's race to lose.  If he does lose in either Ohio or Texas, the race becomes Clinton's to win.  

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by: Brady @ Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 16:48:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no one could have predicted, how fickle primary voter's could be (0.00 / 0)

Democracy can be so damn fickle sometimes.  Clinton if she wins, after blowing 20 point leads in both Texas and Ohio will be the clear favorite after Ohio, somehow.  Obama, will be on the defensive because he has failed to knock out Clinton after 3 tries, even though he's won 24 contests to Clinton's 11.  Clinton has never been the favorite in this race, except when she had 30 point leads against all of her opponents throughout all of last year, even reaching 50% in some polls.

but now we have one of the biggest whoppers, the DNC needs to fix a problem that it created.  The DNC? Hello?

As a former Edwards supporter who now leans towards Obama, I surely hope that the race comes to a close tomorrow.  Although, it's starting to smell more and more like a contested primary in a safe democratic congressional district.  Win the primary and you win the general.  But more so than not, if Clinton doesn't win now, this may be her only chance at the nomination.  Although alternatively, her supporters have invested $10millions and countless hours, and just don't want to go out without a fight.  

It's in the hands of the Texas and Ohio voter's, I count neither out. I prefer one and I retain a great deal of ire towards Granholm and other Democratic leaders that played insider politics(very badly) with our votes.

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by: Gaspare @ Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 17:30:58 PM UTC

Granholm (4.00 / 2)

I don't think it is fair to accuse Governor Granholm of playing insider politics.  What exactly are you accusing her of?

Was it insider politics to sign a bill creating the OPTION for the two political parties to participate in the January 15 primary; a bill that had the support of majorities of the Democrats in both the House and Senate?  

Was it insider politics for Granholm to ask all the candidates to remain on the Michigan ballot so Michigan Democrats could have a full choice of candidates?

Was it insider politics for Granholm to endorse Clinton after Clinton remained on the ballot and Obama and Edwards took their names off?  Do you feel the same way about the Governor and other high level politicians like Ted Kennedy and John Kerry who have endorsed Edwards or Obama?

I don't see how the governor can be accused of insider politics.  If you don't like how your legislator voted, talk to her or him about it.  If I remember right, the vote by the MDP executive board to participate in the primary was like 30-1.  If you don't like their decision, run for the MDP board if you feel you're qualified for the position.  The people who sit on that board are there because of their exceptional and sustained commitment to the Michigan Democractic Party, not because they feel strongly about one election and one candidate.

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by: Brady @ Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 18:01:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not a situation favorable to Clinton (0.00 / 0)

She would end up with far less delegates than she got from the Potemkin election in January.

It would be a much closer race with a much closer result.

It is almost impossible for Team Clinton to win the delegates necessary to catch Obama, but adding in Florida and Michigan as they stand now could close the gap...

And Mark Penn knows this.

They are hoping for enough of a win tomorrow to keep the campaign going to agitate for seating Michigan and Florida with the current results.

Given Team Clinton's current scorched earth strategy, it doesn't look to me like a campaign that has the best interest of the party at heart.

And everyone should consider the ramifications of any Michigan delegates on the current primary race...

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by: Nazgul35 @ Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 03:09:09 AM UTC

Delegates won't be seated based on Jan.15th (0.00 / 0)

Just a few points based on what I have read, so far, in this thread:

1)Hillary has NO realistic chance for the nomination barring a cataclysmic and unforeseeable event. The delegate math just doesn't work out.

2) The ONLY reason Charlie Crist wants a Dem do-over in Fla. is because it draws out the chaos in the Democratic race and helps his (almost certain) running mate McCain.

Jen Granholm doesn't want a do-over, because, since she is still (delusionally) holding out hope of a seating of the MI delegation based on Jan. 15th. Obviously, any do-over, would, certainly, help Obama.

3) Someone mentioned the "favorable primary calendar for Clinton in spring".

After Pennsylvania, the only states that award more than 70 delegates are Indiana (a border state with Obama'a Illinois) and North Carolina (a state Obama is sure to win BIG), so I'd question the wisdom of any claim that the calendar after PA is favorable to Hillary.

4) If the Clintons go "scorched earth" and take this thing all the way to the convention, the seating of MI and FL will be decided by a vote of all the delegates at the convention. Obama will have the MAJORITY of these delegates. Thus, barring an (agreed upon) do-over, there is NO way the delegations from MI or FL will be seated in a way that will skew the results in Clinton's favor.

These are, simply, the facts.

"Those who attempt to censor free speech by filtering the Internet, are... the... TRUE... "tiny cats" of cyberspace."

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by: detroit tiger @ Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 18:20:17 PM UTC

Automatic Delegates (0.00 / 0)

You forgotten about the automatic delegates.  350 of them have yet to commit to a candidate.  Given that Obama and Hillary are only 100 votes apart in total delegates and Clinton may very well reduce her deficit significantly tonight and in Pennsylvania, the automatic delegates likely will decide the outcome of the election.  While some people say that the automatic delegates won't vote against the candidate who has the most pledged delegates, I think they easily would if that margain is less than 150 pledged delegates.  The automatic delegates are individual party activist with independent votes.  They're not heards of sheep.  If Obama were to win Ohio and Texas tonight, I think most automatic delegates will go to him.  If that doesn't happen, I think the great majority could go to Clinton and she could become the nominee.  One can't simply ignore the automatic delegates because they're inconvenient to the manufactured perception that Obama is the inevitable nominee.  He's failed twice to put Clinton away in New Hampshire and Super Tuesday and if he fails again tonight his credibility is will be seriously diminished.

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by: Brady @ Tue Mar 04, 2008 at 19:24:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

16 years in the White House (0.00 / 0)

The ONLY reason Charlie Crist wants a Dem do-over in Fla. is because he is a first term governor and wants a second term.  He's pandering to the Democrats down there.

The DLC is going to be looking for unity and Obama and Clinton as running mates would be ideal.  Who is the top of the ticket is the question.

How great to have 16 years in the White House ... Clinton 8 and Obama 8.

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by: Cole6015 @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 18:51:11 PM UTC

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