GOP: We won't/can't win in 2010

by: LiberalLucy

Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 12:39:42 PM EDT

Encouraging and interesting news comes to the state courtesy of a new white-paper from an interesting group of Republican strategists - the GOP just can't win in 2010. The article from MIRS (subscription only) is quite revealing. For instance -

A new white paper by MDJ&R Strategy Consultants takes a look at why the GOP went from controlling the governor's mansion and both houses of the Legislature before the last redistricting in 2000 to having a Democratic governor and House today. Their study of election data trends predicts neither will change hands in the 2010 election and Republicans will drop to a 20-18 majority in the Senate.

"The numbers aren't there to be successful in 2010," said Dennis DARNOI, former chief of staff for Senate Majority Leader Mike BISHOP (R-Rochester). "It's clear that the message the top-of-the-ticket candidates have been using isn't resonating. It hasn't been successful for six years."

Darnoi said the GOP has lost suburban and independent voters, particularly from the five biggest counties -- Wayne, Oakland, Macomb, Kent and Grand Traverse. Only 32 percent of Michigan voters identify as Republicans, even though 40 percent say they're conservative. Republicans need an 83-county strategy, he said.

Hmm, an 83-county strategy, eh? Sounds a little familiar, kind of like a 50-state strategy implemented by the Democratic National Party in 2008? You betcha! (wink)

Oh, but there's much, much more...

The article goes on...

Darnoi put together the white paper after attending former Gov. John ENGLER's talk before the Detroit Economic Club last year and bumping into former GOP strategist Richard MCLELLAN and Suzy HEINTZ-AVERY. He worked on it with Chicago pollster Richard CZUBA; Matt MARSDEN, who is Bishop's press secretary; and former John McCAIN campaign staffer Paul EGNATUCK. None are working on campaigns for '10. (emphasis mine)

With the Michigan Republican's All-Stars already lining up for the 2010 gubernatorial race (Attorney General Mike Cox, Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land, U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra), this can't bode well when all the consultants have jumped ship.

The methodology is quite interesting and also very telling -

The consultants looked at county data from 2000 to 2008. Former President George W. BUSH won 68 counties in 2004 -- besting the GOP average from 2000 to 2006 of 61 counties and Granholm's 55 in 2006. The 2010 model assumes a 3.99 million turnout. It gives the GOP gubernatorial nominee every county Bush won and even assumes s/he will win Oakland County at 56 percent, which County Executive L. Brooks PATTERSON did in 2008. That goes against the current Democratic trend.

The model also assumes the nominee will lose the other counties by the least margin possible. That especially makes a difference in the massive Democratic stronghold of Wayne County, which is how Engler won in 1990. But times and demographics have changed. The 2010 nominee is still on track to lose by 96,000 votes. While it's a far cry from Granholm's 525,000-vote margin in '06, it still means that Republicans haven't cracked the code of how to win in Michigan under the current political climate. 

Darnoi said Republicans need to change their message to attract ticket-splitters. The message of "no new taxes, no new taxes and tax cuts, tax cuts" won't cut it with a majority of voters anymore.

"No one's interested in paying more taxes and giving the government more of their money," he said. "But for whatever reason with the situation we find ourselves in, people will reluctantly pay more in taxes if they think they're getting something in return."

Darnoi said Republicans have to emphasize transparency and accountability now. When the economy recovers, they can fight for "fiscal sanity." But he said the GOP in Michigan and nationally isn't taking that course.

"The Republican response we're seeing to more big government is to push back hard," he said. "This effectively allows Democrats at the state and federal level to label us obstructionists with no new ideas."

Obstructionists? Sounds about right. For instance, my personal favorite hair model, Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop (R-Hair Gel) is the definitive captain of that ship. He's managed to successfully block and/or neuter any significant piece of legislation that's gone to the Senate in the last several years.

But don't take my word for it - check out this article from yesterday's Grand Rapids Press where Bishop himself admits to blocking the Drug Immunity Bill that has now been twice sent over from the House, with a bi-partisan vote no less, and has essentially lingered since early 2007.

The state House last month passed bills to repeal Michigan's immunity law, but state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop, R-Rochester, said he does not intend to allow a vote on it in the Senate.

"There are some things I have to be a stopper for," he said. "I don't have any intention of taking this issue up."

To be fair, it was one of the top issues that helped Democrats regain control of the House in the '06 Election. God forbid that Mike Bishop appear to be anything but a puppet for the Republican talking points.

Instead it appears that he's found a cozy spot in the pocket of the multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical industry.

A major goal of the law was to attract more pharmaceutical companies to Michigan, Bishop noted.

Clearly, it's in everyone's best interests to give breaks and protections to Big Pharma than protect Michigan residents, despite the fact that it was the people who elected Bishop. But I digress...

The white paper is good news, but it also offers a cautionary tale for Democrats.

"It is this inability to connect with voters, and not some new found affinity for the Democrat Party, that is at the heart of Republican's lack of competitiveness," the consultants wrote. 

....

The question, Darnoi said, is if moderate Republican candidates can get out of primaries. The track record for that in Michigan has been mixed.

At this point, one might have better luck of finding a white elephant running around these parts than you would a moderate Republican.

I doubt that any of the declared Democratic gubernatorial candidates will take this as an opportunity to rest on their laurels. For the last several election cycles, Democrats have a solid record of running hard, regardless of what the polling numbers are predicting. Michigan is a blue state, and it's likely to remain a blue state for the near future, but any good candidate knows that you can never ever take anything in politics for granted. 

I'm guessing there's more than one reason why Darnoi is the former chief of staff for Bishop. You can only bang your head against the wall so many times before you just give up and have to move on. But I won't lie, it's really nice to hear the other side trash themselves in a very public way.