A SoapBlox Politics Blog
[Mobile Edition]
About
- About Us
- Email Us (news/tips)
- Editorial Policy
- Posting Guidelines
- Advertise Here
Feedburner

Subscribe to Michlib daily email summary. (Preview)
Enter address:

Donate
Become a sponsor and support our work.

 MichLib sponsor list

Michigan Political Blog Ad Network

Advertise Liberally

50 State Ad Network

Uh...wow. New MI Poll on Marriage Equality

by: PerfectStormer

Sun Jun 07, 2009 at 15:48:11 PM EDT


How's this for a quote?

In what Glengariff Group pollster Richard Czuba describes as a seismic shift in public opinion, even support for gay marriage has nearly doubled since a similar poll in 2004

NEARLY DOUBLED. The question was "Do you support or oppose allowing gay/lesbian couples to marry?" Five years ago 24% of respondents said yes and 61% said no. Two weeks ago, only 48% said no and 46.5% said YES. Imagine that...right here in the Mitten we're darn close to a plurality of support for same sex marriage. Knock me over with a feather, why don't you? I don't know about any of you, but this poll made my day.

Oh, but the news gets better:

Glengariff also measured support for: adoption rights (57.5%), same-sex partner benefits for government employees (65.5%), inheritance rights for gay and lesbian partners (70.9%) and recognition of same-sex marriages from other states (53.5%).

In other words, two thirds of the electorate now disagree with the fallout created by the most restrictive marriage amendment in the country and think that the state should be allowed to offer domestic partner benefits. Nearly sixty percent support allowing same-sex couples to adopt children together. Imagine getting two thirds of the electorate to agree on something like health care reform. This news is nothing short of earth-shattering. We may have lost the Proposition 8 fight in California that was supposed to have opened the floodgates of equality, but the floodgates are open anyway. LGBT families are winning acceptance all over the country, including right here in my backyard.

The next time I'm inclined to whine about incrementalism and waiting my turn and justice delayed being justice denied, someone please hit me upside the head with a copy of this poll. We like to taunt our foes by reminding them that people of my generation are much more accepting of LGBT people and remind them that we're winning this battle over time, but the proof is in these poll numbers. In five years the support for marriage equality has gone from the low twenties to the mid forties, and by the time we're ready to put it back on the ballot in 2012 we just may be looking at a marriage equality victory. Our opponents can cling to their outdated definitions of family and outmoded visions of the world for as long as they want, but the tides are against them and they know it.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to celebrate with a piece of cake...and then I'm going to go back to fighting for LGBT equality over at RainbowMittens.com.

PerfectStormer :: Uh...wow. New MI Poll on Marriage Equality
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Polls aren't quite the same as ballot proposals. (4.00 / 2)
The outcomes of ballot proposals are notoriously difficult to predict from conventional polling, but certainly these results say we should shift our discussion from defense to offense.  Maybe by 2012, the public would be ready both to repeal the current prohibition and to replace it with a (mild) statement of equality before the law.

Nate Silver, over at FiveThirtyEight.com predicted from a regression analysis, that Michigan would tip to being pro-gay marriage by about 2012 or 2014, but this poll suggests public opinion has already shifted faster than he expected.  Sometimes public opinion doesn't change smoothly over time, but jumps in reaction to events.  Or maybe this poll is an "outlier" and slightly overestimates present public support.  But it's certainly good news, anyway.

If anybody is interested in actually testing a ballot proposal or two, using my "straw ballot" technique, please let me know.  (Commercial disclaimer: The most important component of "interest" is having access to a few thousand dollars to help with expenses.)


I was excited by (4.00 / 1)
Nate's analysis, and at the time I thought perhaps it was a bit too optimistic...but that was before Iowa, New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine all legalized same sex marriage in the last three months and shifted the debate toward finding a way for marriage equality and religious freedom to coexist.

It's probably too late to mount a serious effort for 2010, but the groundwork is already being laid for a repeal of Prop 2 in 2012. We're already getting pretty loud rumblings from the various fragments of the LGBT community that they think it's perhaps feasible.


[ Parent ]
The election will be tough enough (0.00 / 0)
in 2010 for Governor, no need to drive the wingnuts to the polls...

[ Parent ]
I'm with Grebner (0.00 / 0)
I'd like those that would like to uphold the ban try to explain how it fits with the American ideals of equality and freedom of expression.  It would be nice if they could also find intelligent reasons other than that which they think they read in their bible.  I mean really, it must have been on the tablet that Moses dropped, and they left out the part when Jesus opposed same-sex marriage.

Let's go on the offensive!

(My only concern would be the number of young folk leaving the state to find work...  this could make things even more confusing to the pollsters


Given how prevalent (4.00 / 1)
homosexuality was in Rome, funny Jesus never brought it up.

[ Parent ]
Eventually (4.00 / 1)
they will be dead...wait ten to fifteen years and the point will be mute...

I've always been an advocate of going for civil unions/etc FIRST... (0.00 / 0)
...and THEN, a few years later, when it starts to dawn on the public at large that the earth DIDN'T open up and swallow the state in Hellfire, that would be the point to consider getting out a sharpie and changing "civil union" to "marriage" on the various documents.

The bandwagon effect of Iowa, Vermont, New Hampshire, etc is certainly helping move things along swiftly, and as Nazgul noted, time is on your/our side--wait another 10 years and a huge chunk of homophobes will be dead anyway.


Gay marriage (0.00 / 0)
I'm all in favor of equal protection under law, but especially given the cost of a wedding, there are some real advantages to not having the social expectations of getting married.  I hope it doesn't come too soon.  Having a household to maintain is expensive enough.  I don't know how those couples do it with kids included in the package as well.

Don't Want a Wedding? (4.00 / 2)
Don't have one.

In the meantime, don't get in the way of those who actually do want to get married.


[ Parent ]

Search
Progressive Blogroll
For MI Bloggers:
- MI Bloggers Facebook
- MI Bloggers Myspace
- MI Bloggers PartyBuilder
- MI Bloggers Wiki

Statewide:
- Blogging for Michigan
- Call of the Senate Dems
- [Con]serving Michigan (Michigan LCV)
- DailyKos (Michigan tag)
- Enviro-Mich List Serve archives
- Democratic Underground, Michigan Forum
- Jack Lessenberry
- JenniferGranholm.com
- LeftyBlogs (Michigan)
- MI Eye on Bishop
- Michigan Coalition for Progress
- Michigan Messenger
- MI Idea (Michigan Equality)
- Planned Parenthood Advocates of Michigan
- Rainbow Mittens
- The Upper Hand (Progress Michigan)

Upper Peninsula:
- Keweenaw Now
- Lift Bridges and Mine Shafts
- Save the Wild UP

Western Michigan:
- Great Lakes Guy
- Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott
- Mostly Sunny with a Chance of Gay
- Public Pulse
- West Michigan Politics
- West Michigan Rising
- Windmillin'

Mid-Michigan:
- Among the Trees
- Blue Chips (CMU College Democrats Blog)
- Christine Barry
- Conservative Media
- Far Left Field
- Graham Davis
- Honest Errors
- ICDP:Dispatch (Isabella County Democratic Party Blog)
- Liberal, Loud and Proud
- Livingston County Democratic Party Blog
- MI Blog
- Mid-Michigan DFA
- Pohlitics
- Random Ramblings of a Somewhat Common Man
- Waffles of Compromise
- YAF Watch

Flint/Bay Area/Thumb:
- Bay County Democratic Party
- Blue November
- East Michigan Blue
- Genesee County Young Democrats
- Greed, Eggs, and Ham
- Jim Stamas Watch
- Meddling Outsider
- Saginaw County Democratic Party Blog
- Stone Soup Musings
- Voice of Mordor

Southeast Michigan:
- A2Politico
- arblogger
- Arbor Update
- Congressman John Conyers (CD14)
- Mayor Craig Covey
- Councilman Ron Suarez
- Democracy for Metro Detroit
- Detroit Skeptic
- Detroit Uncovered (formerly "Fire Jerry Oliver")
- Grosse Pointe Democrats
- I Wish This Blog Was Louder
- Kicking Ass Ann Arbor (UM College Democrats Blog)
- LJ's Blogorific
- Mark Maynard
- Michigan Progress
- Motor City Liberal
- North Oakland Dems
- Oakland Democratic Politics
- Our Michigan
- Peters for Congress (CD09)
- PhiKapBlog
- Polygon, the Dancing Bear
- Rust Belt Blues
- Third City
- Thunder Down Country
- Trusty Getto
- Unhinged

MI Congressional
District Watch Blogs:
- Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood (CD08)

MI Campaigns:
MI Democratic Orgs:
MI Progressive Orgs:
MI Misc.:
National Alternative Media:
National Blogs:
Powered by: SoapBlox