Swing State Project: Redistricting Michigan

That one is really not a lot of change (0.00 / 0)

1 - Stupak has won tougher districts than the current one and will still be a tough fight for either part if opened. Advantage democrats simply because of the tradition in the UP.

2 - Not as republican as the poster thinks. Neither is Camp's district for that matter.

3. This one will depend on the candidate. While it would genericaly favor the dems, someone like Ehlers, Hardiman, or Van Woerkem has a history of winning that area. For the dems, Steve Peska is probably the best shot.

4. Safe R, the old Upton seat with Hoekstra's Ottawa.

5. This is almost the old Wolpe district. The "gerrymander" was actually back from the split control 1990's with the Smith district. Throwing in Lansing as well as Kalamazoo makes this safe for Schauer.

6. I could live with this being the "new 8th."

7. Kildee unchanged except adding Holly and Rose townships in Oakland.

8. Does that new 8th have Mt Clemens? Other than that, no change.

9. If Peters has both Southfield and Pontiac without West and Central Eastern ends of Oakland, he's safe.

10. Call me crazy, but I think that district is actually winnable for the GOP in a good year. I have to check the numbers, but I think Posthumus gave that district a good run in 02. Of course if Dingell runs there, he wins.

11. Is the Levin district big enough in population if we lose a seat? It doesn't look like it. It looks the same, just switching Troy and all of Royal Oak for Southfield.

12. Somewhat similar to the old Rivers district. Only way the GOP wins here is if there is major infighting between the Ann Arbor/Ypsi liberals and the rural moderate and more social conservative democrats. I think there's an outside shot if Brater is the nominee, but not if Spade or one of the Monroe democrats is the nominee.

13. Kilpatrick seat.

14. Conyers seat, with Livonia and Reford added.  

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:19:49 PM UTC

Pestka lives in Cascade Township (0.00 / 0)

So there would have to be slight motifications to this 2nd to include Peska's home east of the airport.

Pestka would be a strong candidate.

West Michigan Rising: The Progressive Blog for Our (future) Left Coast

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by: philgoblue @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 13:53:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Third: Add Newaygo (0.00 / 0)

Drop the crazies in the lower tier of townships.  

While Pestka would be strong, in fairness, Tony Tague (Muskegon) would also be an obvious choice in a winnable seat.

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by: Harris @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 23:45:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A few comments (0.00 / 0)

1.  It is real difficult to draw new district BEFORE we have the new census numbers.  You can only do so much with Census estimates and the ACS (American Community Survey).

2.  Does this plan still maintain two majority minority districts?  Looking at them (without crunching any numbers)  it seems like the Conyers' district does not have enough of Detroit to be majority minority.

3.  I don't think these districts would score well verses the state statute governing Congressional districts.  Of course if we have complete control, then those rules can be rewritten...

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by: dfox @ Tue Jun 16, 2009 at 20:05:35 PM UTC