Analysis of Competitive and Potentially Competitive Michigan State House Races

Dennis Lennox is a CMU student, not MSU. (4.00 / 1)

At least, I hope he's never enrolled at MSU.

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by: Grebner @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 05:28:06 AM UTC

Thanks, fixed (4.00 / 1)

I'm sure I made a few more mistakes.  I really should right these diaries during the day instead of at 1 in the morning.

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by: Menhen @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 05:33:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Write", right? (0.00 / 0)

But perhaps you meant to say you should "correct" them during daylight, so you meant to select that word in sense of "set it right".  

If you had meant you think of yourself as a "wordsmith" or "wright", forging your prose on the Intel-based anvil, you could have used an archaic spelling of that word.

I guess your original word-choice was "right", right?  Sorry to have questioned it - I was wrong.

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by: Grebner @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 18:52:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no, I meant to type "write," of course. (0.00 / 0)

In this case, you are "right," and in the future I will set myself a curfew of midnight for replying to comments.

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by: Menhen @ Sun Aug 23, 2009 at 23:03:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

District 107 (0.00 / 0)

The two most WESTERN Counties in the Upper Peninsula? The last state map I saw they were the two most EASTERN Counties in the U.P.  

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by: cueball @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 13:35:29 PM UTC

More races (0.00 / 0)

I think that while Menhen has done a good bit of analysis here, this estimation is overly optimistic for the House Democrats as the head into the 2010 cycle. According to this estimate, the Democrats will have between 65 and 69 seats, something that I want to see happen as well.  

That said, I think that there are a number of seats that a extremely vulnerable to a GOP pickup, even without a GOP wave next fall. Seats tend to be most vulnerable when they are open seats or when a first-term incumbent is defending in a swing or leaning-Democratic/leaning Republican district.

I agree with Menhen that many of the seats he lists (Districts, 30, 57, 70, 71, 83, 85, 91, 97, 99, 103, 106, and 107) are in play. I would think that 57, 83, and 107 are especially vulnerable, given their GOP lean since the late 1990s, and wouldn't be surprised to see the Republicans pick up these seats. I think that picking up District 79 is a pipe dream, given that we have a very weak bench in south west Michigan. An Obama swing might be nice to have in 2010, but even with the Obama vote last year we were unable to pick up District 78, which had a great Democratic candidate running in an open seat. Taking a District here requires some long-term party building, not national wave numbers.

Other open seats that I'm worried about are Districts 52 (western Washtenaw County) and 56 (eastern Washtenaw). While both of these seats have been increasingly Democratic over the past four cycles, they still are prime GOP pickup opportunities should the GOP run good candidates in these open districts.

In seats that are represented by first-term Democrats, a bunch of seats in metropolitan Detroit are potential flips. District 1 (eastern Wayne County), 21 (Canton), 24 (Macomb) and 37 (Oakland County) are all seats that were won by Democrats in excellent campaigns that beat GOP candidates in historically GOP districts. I can't see the GOP letting these candidates have an easy pass this cycle, especially since they will likely be invulnerable for the following cycle with an increasingly Democratic friendly redistricting. The same goes for Districts 62 and 65. Should Mike Nofs win the State Senate special election in District 19, the GOP might think that it is a sign that Segal's victory in District 62 was a fluke, and they'll try to run a spirited campaign against her. Likewise, Districts 64 and 65 in Jackson County are seats that the GOP will try to flip, especially if Marty Griffin loses by a spectacular amount in November 2009 against Nofs.

Simply put, there are 12 seats that are really up for grabs, with three that are more likely to go GOP than Democratic. Likewise the Democrats have to defend 2 other open seats that are in the weak-Democratic column. Also, there are 7 first-term Democrats that are potentially open to strong GOP challenges. Thus, the work of preserving a Democratic majority in the State House must begin in earnest.

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by: peterbratt @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 13:46:39 PM UTC

The 99th (0.00 / 0)

Nice roundup.  I was having a conversation with a local political junkie yesterday over this post (yes sir, you had people in Mt. Pleasant talking local politics).

Some thoughts on the 99th:

*--The Native American population here is not all that high.  A couple thousand on the Isabella reservation versus 23,000 in the city of Mt. Pleasant itself, another 20 grand in Union Township, and 20,000 full-time students on CMU's campus.  There is some mixing in there (CMU students live in both the city and Union Township and declare this their full-time homes).  Also, a lot of them are decidedly apolitical the closer to local government you get (that is, except tribal politics).

*--Christine Alwood lost a county commission race. Her husband Russ, who's actually more popular among local Republicans, lost the race for county drain commissioner.

*--I've talked to Jim Holton a few times over the years, and he gives every indication that he's more interested in expanding his business and spending time with his family than in elected office above the local level.  That is, if Jim Holton was somehow talked into running, there's a very good question of whether his heart would be in it.

*--The only other prominent local politico who I could see running (one of the Republicans on the county commission is a farmer who has no apparent interest in politics, the other Republican has health problems) is former mayor Jon Joslin. But, he's opening a new business and helps his wife run her business.

*--Toni Sessoms should learn the language of wood chippers, and start talking them their use in biomass energy.  Isabella County is the wood chipper capital of the world, and being able to credibly talk about helping those manufacturers would help in the out-district areas where she'll have the most trouble.

*--The juggernaut in this district last year was the CMU student base in Union Township.  The casino and university have changed the demographics of Isabella County to a huge degree.  I rate this race as Lean Democratic because the local Dems give every indication of repeating their success in turning out CMU students in Union Township next year, and the local Republicans show little awareness that it's no longer a safe district and are likely to continue campaigning like it's 1994.  If I'm right on both accounts, and Sessoms gets Michigan lawyer money and the Republicans continue to falter with fund raising (and the state party is unable to spread the wealth to the 99th), the uphill fight here is likely to be for the GOP.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 14:16:33 PM UTC

sessoms (0.00 / 0)

I have only met tony sessoms once or twice and for all she of course seems like a nice and intelligent person.  Yet, I really hope they can find someone more moderate to run out of the 99th or else there will be another GOP person in that seat.  People forget how many votes in that district are in midland county, and how big of a conservative margin it has.

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by: beenrolling2long @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 16:25:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Midland County (0.00 / 0)

I was looking at numbers for this district a few months back.  All of the townships outside of the population center in Mt. Pleasant and Union Township accounted for about one-third to 40 percent of votes last November.  Midland County's townships were tacked onto this district back in 2000 with the idea that they would help the Isabella County Republican Party retain control of this district.  And, even then, they had to carve out a giant "C" to prevent the county's blue tilt from taking down a state Senate seat.

Traditionally, the local Dem party has always run a somewhat moderate person with name recognition and they've always lost no matter who wins at the top of the ticket.

No matter who runs, unless they can mobilize the CMU students in Union Township like they did last November, the Democrat is probably going to lose.  I went to the Isabella Dem's inauguration party last November.  These were all the people who helped run the county's campaign alongside the Obama folks; many of them were the people swept into office out in Union Township.  Toni Sessoms was there.  John Barker was there.  None of the old guard moderate Dems were there.  Old guard moderate candidateside in this district=campaigning like they did when Sue Smith and Sharon Tilmann ran=FAIL.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 17:06:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

More than 34 (0.00 / 0)

Because most of the Senate seats are up in 2010, we will see a number of non-term-limited House members switching to a Senate run, just as we saw in 2002 when most of the Senate seats were last open.  Thus, it's hard to guess at this point how many House seats will be open in '10, but it will surely be many more than 34.

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by: politicaljunkie @ Mon Aug 24, 2009 at 15:54:33 PM UTC

30th (0.00 / 0)

How is Dave Flynn even being mentioned for this seat ?

1. He doesn't live in the district
2. He doesn't even live in the district he represents on the County Board of Commissioners !! He lives in Lansing as he is a student at MSU. I'm gonna go ahead and assume that he just wants a job thats a little closer to home.

I really don't see how Ken Lampar doesn't win this seat for the Dems considering  
that primary voters won't wanna vote for someone who doesn't even live in their district and the GOP has no electable candidates.

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by: cfcapitol @ Tue Aug 25, 2009 at 21:33:23 PM UTC