Wherein we learn that Democrats have already lost the 2020 elections

by: Eric B.

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 13:54:39 PM EST

Peter Luke takes data from a Republican-leaning polling firm and Bill Ballenger, and talks to a new Republican state senator and discerns that Democrats are screwed.

According to fresh polling by Lansing-based Marketing Resource Group and Bill Ballenger’s Inside Michigan Politics newsletter, nearly all the independents said the economy had gotten worse in the last year and two-thirds said it’s unlikely to get any better in the next 12 months.

Independents aren’t quite as pessimistic about how the state’s being run as Republicans are, but it’s close. Ninety percent of Republicans surveyed said the state is on the wrong track. Nearly three-fourths of independents said so. Nearly half of Democrats, amazingly, said Michigan was on the right track.

By a 12-point spread, independents disapprove of Gov. Jennifer Granholm’s job performance. And they are almost as opposed to higher taxes as Republicans are.

This last bit conflicts with most every other piece of recent polling on the budget, all of which says that most voters would prefer to see a compromise of cuts and taxes rather than all of one or the other. But, if you're bound and determined to read too much into last Tuesday's elections, I guess you take what you can get.

Actually, the premise is probably not all that far off the mark. I think people would like very much for things to change, and if they can't get it from the Democrats they elected, they'll get it from the Republicans who they unelected because they wanted change last year, also. The Democrats, given a substantial mandate to fix what is broken in this country, have managed to get basically nothing accomplished this year, excepting that we finally managed to get a vote on a health care bill without federal funding for abortion. Naturally, this has put people into an uproar, guaranteeing more months of yelling and fighting while everyone else continues to get increasingly fed up with the entire thing.

We've seen the results here in Michigan. What's left of the state's media has largely taken away a similarly-sized mandate won by the governor nearly four years ago due to disuse. Today, any time she pops up and says anything, she's immediately set upon by the likes of Ballenger like a flock of crows.

I wouldn't read too deeply into these things, at least right now. The GOP victories Tuesday were less referendums about the president, and more referendums on poorly run campaigns. The vibe I got from the Griffin campaign here in Michigan, at least, was "Vote Griffin because you've got nothing better to do with your time."

As for the distaste for higher taxes ... I assume that's also true, but again to a point. I very much doubt that any regular people will really sign off on the impact of state budget cuts that have yet to take effect. My guess also is that there is a good deal less appetite for not raising taxes, and more appetite for not raising taxes and handing it over to the crowd in Lansing. I think if someone were to make a case to the people of Michigan -- bring forth a package that balanced the budget, spread the pain, funded things people think are important, did it all in a way that encourages government efficiency, and -- most important of all -- did it in a way that suggested that things were solved for the time being, I think you'd find that people would be a good deal more open to something like that.

Meanwhile, somewhere, Nolan Finley shouts at a wall.