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Cox in the Lead?

by: kelster

Mon Nov 30, 2009 at 20:04:22 PM EST


Political Wire picked up this story from DetNews:

A Mitchell Research poll in Michigan finds Attorney General Mike Cox (R) is the front-runner in next year's governor's race.

In the GOP primary, Cox leads Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), 27% to 24%, with Michael Bouchard (R) in third with 12%.

In a general election match up, Cox is 16 points ahead of Lt. Gov. John Cherry (D), 47% to 31%.

kelster :: Cox in the Lead?
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Cox in the Lead? | 6 comments
Mitchell is on Cox's Payroll (0.00 / 0)
Mitchell is a longtime Republican hack that even the serious Republican camapaigns do not use as their actual campaign pollster. Interestingly Mitchell's wife, his firms President and CFO, was a fundraiser for Kilpatrick and Mitchell probably did other work for Kilpatrick. Maybe Mitchell is the person who put Cox together with Kilpatrick to thwart the MSP investigation of the Manoogian?  

Lead (0.00 / 0)
It depends on what one means by lead.  Cox has been on the state-wide ballot twice and is currently in state-wide office.  Hoekstra never has.  A year out from the election when there has been no media campaign taking place, Cox should be polling far ahead of Hoekstra.  The fact that they're in a statistical dead heat is a very good sign for Hoekstra, especially when other recent polling shows Hoekstra slightly ahead.

4% Margin of Error, So 3% Lead Over Hoekstra Means Little (4.00 / 1)
And the link is missing a trailing .html, BTW

CrossTabs please (0.00 / 0)
Anytime I see one of these polls, I ask "where are the crosstabs?" Mitchell (surprise) does not provide crosstabs for much-nor does the Yob outfit. Mitchell came to one of my graduate classes at Michigan to talk about polling and GOP politics, and boy was he a hack. A week before Graholm thumped DeVos, Mitchell said that DeVos was going to win by 7%.

Personally, I think Cox is not going to do too well, although if he makes it to the general, good for the Dems.  


Works for Governor DeVos (0.00 / 0)
In a hypothetical election for Governor of Michigan today, 8/8/2006, Republican Dick DeVos defeats Democrat incumbent Jennifer Granholm, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDIV-TV Detroit and WZZM-TV Grand Rapids. DeVos gets 50% today, Granholm gets 42%.

SurveyUSA, three months before Granholm trounced him by 14.

In other words, you know that idea that polls don't mean much? It's true.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott


Mitchell may be a hack, but (0.00 / 0)
Politico picked up the story. We'll see how far Cox will run with this in his fundraising.

Cox in the Lead? | 6 comments

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