Virg gets in; Dem prospects improve

by: Eric B.

Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 12:20:56 PM EST

This morning, the field of avowed Democrats in the race for governor grows by one, now to include Virg Bernero. It's a moment the Republican Party was apparently preparing for, since after his last State of the City address it's spokespeople launched what might be the least effective response to any address given by any elected official in the history of the Republic.

There's good reason for that. Bernero has two things going for him that potentially could give Republicans fits this campaign cycle.

The first is his municipal experience. Bernero can tap into resentment towards ineffective state government by pointing out that a) he was just as much a victim of it as anyone, since he had a budget to balance and services to provide, and b) he's gotten through it in pretty good shape. I know some people who live in Lansing and aren't connected to the political scene who would disagree with that, but his State of the City address in which he said that they've balanced the budget without laying anyone off is a pretty big accomplishment. He's managed to do this by co-opting the GOP's biggest talking point, fiscal conservatism. In fact, the message he can lay out to people who genuinely believe government ought to tighten its belt is, "They talk, I do." At a time when most people believe that what we primarily get out of Lansing is a lot of talk, this has serious potential to speak to them.

The other, and this is perhaps the biggest thing going for him, is his message. Bernero, if I understand it correctly, is going to campaign as part of a fight to rebuild Michigan's middle class. He plans to do this by continuing what he is most closely associated with ... restoring manufacturing. His campaign will be one to challenge the assumption that we need to transition to a service economy, which he says is an economy built on nothing, and that more average people benefit more when we have an economy based on making things. And, there is also his advocacy that the loans that helped save Wall Street have not translated into help for Main Street ... that is, the big banks were bailed out, but have locked up that money rather than producing loans for small businesses. In fact, coverage following his State of the City address included laudits from the state's small business association for his work in this regard. In short, it will be a campaign waged against the excesses of Wall Street on behalf of Main Street.

To understand the potential of this, let's sum up the campaign planks of others we know to be in the race:

• Andy Dillon wants you to believe that he is equipped to reform state governor, despite his role in two of the last three budget debacles.
• Mike Cox wants you to believe that he can eliminate $2 billion in the state budget without also hurting essential services.
• Peter Hoekstra wants you to believe that he will keep you safe from terrorists at night.
• Rick Snyder Michigan wants you to believe that he can transform the state into a New Economy state.
• Alma Wheeler Smith wants you to believe that the key to transformation is overhauling the state tax code and key reforms in how government operates.

Do you notice what is missing there? Right, there are only oblique mentions of Michigan's people. Summed up, it's all, "When we do these things I propose, things will trickle down to make your life better." Bernero's campaign platform is to cut right through all of that and say to people of all political persuasions and who are fed up with government that does not work on their behalf, "I plan to make my governorship all about you." The difference between his campaign and everyone else's can be summed up thusly ... rather than saying, "Michigan's families have suffered," his says, "You have suffered."

I give you what perhaps could be the best explanation for the possible ultimate potential for this.

Put it to you like this: FDR was economically farther to the left than just about any president in American history — hell, can you imagine what Glenn Beck would do if Obama ordered the confiscation of all privately held gold as FDR did?

And yet, the American voters elected him to a record four terms as their president. Why? Because his shit was working for them. He took steps through the Works Progress Administration and other initiatives to significantly lower the nation’s horrendous employment situation. He set up Social Security to help ease older workers into retirement to make room for younger workers. The Wagner Act helped make organizing unions easier, which in turn helped people negotiate for better wages.

Right ... conservatives, as usual, have misread the anger of voters.  They interpret it as a rejection of Obama's policies because of where they perceive them to lie on the political spectrum. In reality, voters aren't angry about a dot in the political spectrum, but because they think that when the chips are down government isn't doing much to help people.

Of the candidate's running so far, Bernero has the greatest potential to tap into that. He comes with credibility as a municipal leader who's had to balance difficult budgets while trying to maintain services, and as a leader who can point to a track record of building local partnerships for the betterment of both business and regular people, but also as someone who has honed a message with broader potential appeal than I think most people understand for the last year in sometimes hostile environments like Fox News.

Don't take this as a prediction or an endorsement, because Bernero still has serious hurdles to overcome, first and foremost whether he can raise enough cash to get his message out. If he does, and he manages to pair his twin messages of fighting on behalf of the middle class with experience as a fiscally conservative mayor into a message that gains traction, there is certainly good potential that he could win.