| I'm not a big fan of using polls for anything other than as a snapshot of what people think at the immediate moment, but the latest poll from PPP out of North Carolina -- besides telling us that lots of people are still undecided -- is kind of interesting because it's the first poll that has both Virg Bernero and Rick Michigan at the top of the heap. Granted, it's a very small lead, and statistically insignificant, but it is a lead. In the GOP battle, four candidates are within the margin of error of the lead. Venture capitalist Rick Snyder tops Congressman Pete Hoekstra, 20% to 19%, with Attorney General Mike Cox at 17%, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 15%, and State Senator Tom George at 9%. As many voters, 20%, are undecided as support the leader. Hoekstra leads at 21% among the 71% conservative majority, with the other candidates close behind and a few points between each. Snyder gets 28% among the 21% moderate minority, with the other three leading contenders at 18%.
...snip... In the Democratic contest, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero edges State House Speaker Andy Dillon, 26-23, with almost twice as many, 51%, undecided as support Bernero. Bernero is favored by the 32% liberal minority, 38-15, while Dillon leads among the 49% moderate plurality and 19% conservative minority, 29-27 and 20-5, respectively. Two-thirds to three-quarters of the most informed Democrats are not aware of these two candidates, and neither has a positive favorability grade. Bernero is a little less known but slightly more popular, with a 13-14 to Dillon’s 14-19.
I left that second paragraph on the Dems' results because the first sentence troubles me. I can't see how you can call yourself one of the most informed Democrats in this state and not know who Andy Dillon is. Still, read the results as you will. I myself think that we've entered into a period where a large body of undecided Democrats is probably good news for Andy Dillon. That assumption is based on a presumably fatter campaign chest, which his people will be able to use in the run-up to the primary to get their name out there in quick order. To people who live outside Lansing, the contest will appear to be the mayor of Lansing versus that guy who'se spending a lot of money. |
