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Latest poll: Bernero, Rick Michigan up, but undecideds still rule the day

by: Eric B.

Tue Jun 01, 2010 at 12:15:33 PM EDT

I'm not a big fan of using polls for anything other than as a snapshot of what people think at the immediate moment, but the latest poll from PPP out of North Carolina -- besides telling us that lots of people are still undecided -- is kind of interesting because it's the first poll that has both Virg Bernero and Rick Michigan at the top of the heap. Granted, it's a very small lead, and statistically insignificant, but it is a lead.

In the GOP battle, four candidates are within the margin of error of the lead. Venture capitalist Rick Snyder tops Congressman Pete Hoekstra, 20% to 19%, with Attorney General Mike Cox at 17%, Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard at 15%, and State Senator Tom George at 9%. As many voters, 20%, are undecided as support the leader. Hoekstra leads at 21% among the 71% conservative majority, with the other candidates close behind and a few points between each. Snyder gets 28% among the 21% moderate minority, with the other three leading contenders at 18%.


In the Democratic contest, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero edges State House Speaker Andy Dillon, 26-23, with almost twice as many, 51%, undecided as support Bernero. Bernero is favored by the 32% liberal minority, 38-15, while Dillon leads among the 49% moderate plurality and 19% conservative minority, 29-27 and 20-5, respectively.

Two-thirds to three-quarters of the most informed Democrats are not aware of these two candidates, and neither has a positive favorability grade. Bernero is a little less known but slightly more popular, with a 13-14 to Dillon’s 14-19.

I left that second paragraph on the Dems' results because the first sentence troubles me. I can't see how you can call yourself one of the most informed Democrats in this state and not know who Andy Dillon is.  Still, read the results as you will. I myself think that we've entered into a period where a large body of undecided Democrats is probably good news for Andy Dillon. That assumption is based on a presumably fatter campaign chest, which his people will be able to use in the run-up to the primary to get their name out there in quick order.  To people who live outside Lansing, the contest will appear to be the mayor of Lansing versus that guy who'se spending a lot of money.

Eric B. :: Latest poll: Bernero, Rick Michigan up, but undecideds still rule the day
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This is excellent news...for Hillary Clinton.

In this case, I think it's actually true.
I think a lot of those undecideds represent people who would like to support Bernero but who think that Dillon will be a stronger candidate in the general. So, if Dillon's campaign opens up its campaign chest in the month before the primary and floods the airwaves with their guy, that's apt to reinforce that belief.

If I were the Bernero campaign, I'd start advertising.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
Congrats to Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero!
More evidence that the August primary will be dominated by Democratic and Progressive voters, because Independents right now are more interested in crossing over to vote in the GOP primary than supporting Andy Dillon.

The key now is to help Virg get the word out to the undecided Democrats before they can be swayed by slick marketing.

And that takes money, folks.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
Same conclusion
I reached this same conclusion.  Seven months ago.  Remember the $1 million Bernero told Skubik he was going to raise before he would decide for sure if he was running?  Having the heart to run for office is a very different thing from having the ability to do it successfully.

We reached the same conclusion down very different paths...
Also, I'm pretty sure that in their personal histories, Virg Bernero has won more elections than has Andy Dillon.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
And from more people
in larger districts...

[ Parent ]
This poll means nothing at all
It's not a live interview poll.
It surveyed less than 400 voters.
It has a margin of error of at least 5.5%.

Check it out:

I noticed the rather small sample size for a state-wide poll and high margin of error as well.  But given that it's the first & only poll that shows Bernero in the lead, even as it indicates he'll lose the primary, one has to forgive his supporters for over embellishing any slightly good news for Virg at this point in the campaign.  

[ Parent ]
Sure you did...
...right after plumbing it for reasons why it was good news for Andy Dillon (see your above comment where you said as such).

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
Dillon Dominates in SE Michigan
In addition to the North Carolina based PPP poll Eric shared through this diary, a second poll specific to Southeast Michigan was released today by a Michigan firm. It has a smaller margin of error.  The poll, taken after Bernero's political graveyard Macomb County endorsements, shows Dillon heavily dominating Bernero in Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties.  From Gongwer...

"Meanwhile, a separate poll shows Mr. Dillon with a 23-9 lead over Mr. Bernero in the pivotal metro Detroit counties of Macomb, Oakland and Wayne.

The poll was commissioned by the Perricone Group, Rossman Group and Denno Noor Polling. It was conducted by Denno Noor among 600 general election voters between May 22-24 and has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points."

Talk about meaningless samples...
The whole point of regional endorsements isn't to immediately move the polls, but to put individual political machines to work for a particular candidate.  So, it goes without saying that polls taken just two days after those endorsements were made wouldn't show much movement. Plus, it's Dillon's backyard.

In short, this is even more meaningless than the PPP results.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
I still wish Dan Kildee was running n/t

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