Who REALLY has the momentum in the Governor's race?

by: MSURyanJ

Sun Jul 25, 2010 at 22:49:17 PM EDT

Supporters of Virg Bernero were on top of the world last week.  Political pundit Bill Ballenger released a poll of the Democratic race that he stated showed such a "substantial lead" for Bernero that he was ready to call the race right then and there.

Supporters cheered while Bernero released statements showing his campaign had the momentum behind it now and it was all going to be smooth sailing from there.

But just as quickly as that good feeling set in, it seems like it was pulled away as reality came crashing in.

Where was this momentum coming from that Bernero bragged about?   Dillon had just come off getting the endorsements of Detroit Mayor Bing, former mayor Archer, and the bulk of the rest of the prominent Detroit officials.  Considering Detroit is likely to represent a sizeable percentage of the overall turnout on August 3rd, that was certainly momentum for Dillon.

Then came the campaign finance reports turned in on Friday, which not only showed Dillon out-raising Bernero 2:1, but also showed Bernero with very little money left in the bank.  While fundraising by no means represents votes, with such a large percentage of voters still undecided about who they are voting for, it will be critical for both campaigns to get their candidate's name out there to voters as much as possible in the remaining few days.  Dillon has the resources to do that, Virg doesn't seem to.  Again, momentum Dillon.

Then came the newspaper endorsements.  Bernero had almost bragged about Dillon getting endorsed by the right-leaning Detroit News editorial board, which would have been a good argument in a primary race were it not for the fact that Dillon subsequently got endorsed by both the Detroit Free Press and Grand Rapids Press this morning as well.  Once again, momentum Dillon.

And then comes this, from today's Detroit Free Press Poli-Bytes, regarding the Ballenger poll that had the Bernero faithful so excited in the first place.

Things that make you go, 'Huh?'

Lansing pundit Bill Ballenger stirred the Democratic campaign for governor last week with his poll showing Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero has pulled ahead of House Speaker Andy Dillon by 14 points.

What's surprising is that Dillon has been leading Bernero, most recently by 9 percentage points in one poll.

And Ballenger's poll included only 139 people from around the state.

Usually, such polls query 400 or more voters for a statistically sound sample. A sample of 139 likely voters -- culled from 2,000 robo-calls to voters -- was ridiculed by Dillon supporters.

Ballenger said he believes efforts by the UAW and other large labor unions that endorse Bernero will spring him to victory ahead of Dillon.

With only nine days left until the primary, Ballenger noted that the poll showed 42% of likely Democratic voters were undecided.

 

"If they got to know him. they might not like him very much". Bill Ballenger , on sometimes brash Democratic gubernatorial candidate Virg Bernero, who Ballenger said is not well-known outside Lansing, where he's mayor.

So, let me get this straight, he's not only declaring the race for Bernero based on 49 people's responses to a robo-call, but he's also saying that Bernero should go hide in a cave for the next week so that he interacts with as few people as possible, because once you get to know Virg, apparently you don't want to vote for him! I guess Virg's Momentum Express bus should just stay in his driveway this week.

Bottom line, this race isn't over either way, but if there is one candidate you can say has momentum, it easily HAS to be Dillon.   The endorsements are all falling his way, he has the cash to get his name out there far more than Bernero, and every other poll shows him with a 9-10 point lead.  

I have a feeling Mr. Ballenger is going to regret some things come next week.