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State House Pre-Primary Filing Statements Analysis

by: pbratt

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 08:49:47 AM EDT


(cross-posted at WMR and BFM-pb)

As with the State Senate pre-primary filing statements, I've performed an analysis of the top fundraisers for the Michigan State House primary races. Again, for those interested in the complete set of financial data, you can request a subscription at peterbratt@gmail.com.

The top fifteen candidates in terms of money raised are listed in the link provided below:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Five of the top 15 fundraisers are incumbents, and five of the 15 are Democrats.  Two of the top fundraisers are Mike Shirkley and Mark Ouimet, Republicans running in open swing seats (Districts 65th and 52nd) that the Democrats will be fighting to hold. It is interesting to note that of the top Democratic fundraisers, only one is from metropolitan Detroit (Rashida Tlaib District 12). If the Democrats remain in the majority (which I predict they will), I'd expect to see Scripps, Schmidt, and Tlaib in the running for leadership positions. In good news for the Democrats, Brandon Dillon, who is running for the 75th State House seat vacated by Robert Dean, raised a significant amount of money that leaves him with a comfortable cash on hand advantage for the general election.

The top 15 spenders are listed next (the second tab of the spreadsheet):
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

Once again, Republicans dominate this list, with self financers like Holly Hughes (District 91-Swing) and Jeff Oesterle (District 67-Safe DEM) repaying a large portion of their loans and thus leading the list. As with the State Senate list, many candidates with heavy spending are in competitive primaries.

Incumbents and candidates personally financing their campaigns dominate the list of candidates with the most cash on hand listed on the third tab of the spreadsheet:
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

11 of the 15 candidates with the greatest cash on hand advantage are incumbents, and nine of these are Democratic incumbents, three of whom are in swing Districts (Dian Slavens District 21, Sarah Roberts District 24, and Lisa Brown District 39). This financial edge is a heartening sign for continued Democratic control of the House.

Finally, Republicans hold all of the top 15 spots on the fourth spreadsheet listing candidates with the greatest amount of personal debt.  
https://spreadsheets.google.co...

While money can't buy victory, it sure can help in competitive seats like Districts 21, 52, and 91. As in some State Senate primaries, the candidates are literally locked in a spending arms race in the final weeks until August 3.  

pbratt :: State House Pre-Primary Filing Statements Analysis
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67th District (0.00 / 0)
I'm not sure how you justify putting HD67 in the "Safe Dem" category. That district is looking at a Dem base this year of 49.3, and Republican Jeff Oesterle has already spent over $100,000 to defeat Barb Byrum. The House Republicans have this seat on their hit list.

Contributions to Barb's campaign can be made here.


67th (0.00 / 0)
I put it on the safe Dem list in part because of Barb's strength as a candidate. Oesterle has made a grand 40 expenditures in the past six months, and $81,000 of the $100,000 he spent was to repay his loans. I think Barb will win easily, but if Oesterle is running to position himself for this open seat in 2012, then the seat will fall back to being a swing district.

[ Parent ]
In 2012, HD67 will have different boundaries. (0.00 / 0)
If the Apol rules (as codified by statute) are followed, it seems like Ingham will still get exactly three seats, and HD67 will lose about 10,000 people in Lansing.  So in 2012, if the rules don't change, and the Census population estimates turn out about right, it'll be redrawn about 2% more Republican.

[ Parent ]

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