AV ballot return rates in the primary

LOL @ "candidate-psychosis" (0.00 / 0)

I KNOW what you mean!

Respectfully,

Ken R. Whittaker

Caucus & Club Coordinator, Membership Director, and Webmaster

14th District Democratic Party

Executive Director, President Emeritus

Young Democrats of Michigan

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by: kenrwhittaker @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 15:19:42 PM UTC

There is a wide range of symptoms. (0.00 / 0)

It's not just about AV ballots; it's a pervasive distortion of reality.  Once affected, otherwise sensible people seriously begin to believe the only reason for the sun to rise is to allow daylight for door-to-door canvassing.  They assume lost-cat posters on telephone poles carry coded political messages.  They believe that a huge lead could be overcome, or thrown away, by wearing a jacket with a different color, or by the nuance of a single word buried in the eighth paragraph of a page five story in a newspaper no one reads.

Fortunately, it's never fatal, and rarely leaves lasting disability, beyond a tendency to recur.

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by: Grebner @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 15:31:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Recur at highly predictible intervals. (4.00 / 1)

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by: memiller @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 15:48:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks for this - (4.00 / 1)

highly informative and useful. Passing this on to campaigns with AV programs.

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by: memiller @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 15:50:53 PM UTC

Yeah, but they won't believe you. (0.00 / 0)

"Don't 90% of them return their ballots the day after they receive them?".

Exact words of a long-time client, last month.

I think there's a tendency toward faster turnaround when the ballot carries only a few, simple choices.  I think people hold their ballots longer when it contains obscure offices (Wayne State Board of Governors, Register of Deeds, Court of Appeals) or vague ballot proposals ("To Establish a Separate Tax Limitation and reestablish the maximum operating tax levy for the county, general law townships and intermediate school district.").  

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by: Grebner @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 19:13:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Procrastination (0.00 / 0)

I've certainly almost always procrastinated when I voted absentee.  And it was because I wanted to do some more research on some of the more obscure races.

But I suppose as a Candidate, I would be more worried about missing the 20% (or, as it turns out, 5%) who are prompt than about getting it there a few extra days too early for the procrastinators.

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by: JimJ @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 20:03:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you! (0.00 / 0)

I was always under the impression that people voted them right away as well, and its helpful to know that this is not true.

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by: cmichalakis @ Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 19:17:23 PM UTC

Shame you can't get a hold (0.00 / 0)

of individual data on ballot return...

There would be some interesting info in that.

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by: Nazgul35 @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 01:26:00 AM UTC

I've got it. (0.00 / 0)

I have individual level data on date ballot was applied for and date it was returned (if ever).  I don't know who they voted for, of course, if that's what you meant.  But the data grain size is very small.

It's by linking the individual ballot information back to my statewide voter file that allows me to say things (as I have in the past) that Republican ballots are coming back a few percentage points faster than Democratic ones, or whatever.

There are various flaws in the data, but it consists of roughly one million transactions showing that a particular person took a specific action on a particular day.

If you have a research project in mind, I'd be happy to send you a slice of data....

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by: Grebner @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 02:21:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cool (0.00 / 0)

I was thinking about the type of voter kind of study.

In other words, what can we say about those who send back early as opposed to those who send back later (or not at all).

This could greatly impact campaign contact activities re: informational versus persuasive, GOTV tactics (for those who don't turn in) or locking them down early (before anything bad could happen).

Especially when you consider some states that use Absentee ballots exclusively (Oregon I think) and states that use early voting (could inform us about that behavior as well).  

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by: Nazgul35 @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 16:35:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Individual return dates (0.00 / 0)

Does this mean you can tell the candidates "Sure, it went out, but these are probably the only hundred you need to contact this week"

Would that ease their crazy, or only make it worse?

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by: JimJ @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 23:09:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The main use of individual AV data (0.00 / 0)

...is to allow the candidate first to mail to the flood of people who submit applications before the ballots are ready, then to parcel out additional mail to the dribble of applications that are received from them on.  Finally, it allows names of people who have returned their ballots to be dropped entirely from remaining mailings.

There are all sorts of theoretical tactics that could be employed based on classification of absentee voters by whether they vote early or late, or possibly might not vote at all, but in practice, all we deal with is the fact somebody has a ballot, and later doesn't have it any more.

If the Democratic Party could abandon GOTV practices that would have made sense to developmentally disabled people living in 1960, the AV data would be used to track down unreturned ballots in the hands of Dem/D-leaning voters.  But that's WAY beyond their practical reach.

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by: Grebner @ Tue Aug 31, 2010 at 23:34:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Slight update to AV data from the primary (0.00 / 0)

I added columns to show ballots:

1) that weren't mailed out, because the applicant received the ballot in person at the Clerk's office, voted it, and returned it to the Clerk the same day, and

2) that were mailed out, but not returned in time to be counted.

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by: Grebner @ Sun Sep 05, 2010 at 02:51:34 AM UTC