Good News in the SoS Race!

Quick Question (4.00 / 1)

Who conducted the poll? Also, is there any way you can link to it?

---

by: Seth9 @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 18:57:23 PM UTC

Poll (4.00 / 1)

I got the info from the MIRS Newsletter, which requires a paid subscription so I can't link to it.  But it says the poll was done by Foster McCollum White and Associates and Baydoun Consulting.

---

by: MSURyanJ @ Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 22:39:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmmm...it appears to be the same outfit (4.00 / 1)

...that ran the Snyder/Bernero poll last week:

http://detnews.com/article/201...

---

by: Brainwrap @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 00:32:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uhh...I don't think so... (0.00 / 0)

The Detroit News just released a report (article dated 10/15) about a Foster McCollum White and Associates and Baydoun Consulting poll. It featured the following information about the SOS race:

In the secretary of state race, 46.7 percent of voters said they were either certain to vote for Benson or leaning toward Benson, compared to 52.9 percent for Johnson - roughly a 6 percentage point gap, with a 2 percentage point margin of error. The telephone poll was of 2,282 likely voters.

I don't know how reliable they are because they have Snyder up over 20 points in this post-debate poll and had him up only 13 points in their pre-debate poll. Furthermore, it shows that Bernero's support has dropped from 37.1% to 32.5% after the debate, something I rather doubt happened unless voters in the state have suddenly stopped supporting candidates that go negative and repeatedly attack their opponent. That said, I'd like to see their crosstabs, which they will almost certainly release because they claim to be attempting to uphold the standards of the National Council of Public Polls.

At any rate, if this poll is correct, then the race is all but over and Johnson's going to win so long as she doesn't have a massive screwup. Getting over 50% (and beyond the margin of error too) is a big deal because it means that even if all the undecided voters break to the trailing candidate, the leading candidate still wins.

---

by: Seth9 @ Sat Oct 16, 2010 at 03:59:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We can win (0.00 / 0)

the down ticket races.  A lot of people will split the ticket and I don't think that the polls can tell us too much at this point.  Support tends to be softer.  What we need to do is GOTV and get our message out.  I assume (& hope) that Benson and Leyton are saving most of their ad cash for a last-week blitz.  The gov's race is probably over, but we need to focus our effort into making sure that we win the AG and SOS races.

---

by: smithj86 @ Sat Oct 23, 2010 at 16:38:46 PM UTC