2010 Recap Part II: Michigan State House

Nice work and some comments (0.00 / 0)

The white working class populist areas statewide swung hard in the 2010 election. I noticed that even the white Genesee County districts were close. Davison almost flipped. I think the Flushing area was close too. The 50th (Davison) and 96th (Bay City) districts shouldn't have been on the radar.

Double the minority percentage in the 17th% (at least). Redford's demographics are shifting, and not just on the Detroit border. That's also a reason why that district is no longer close. That's solidly dem, especially for someone with an Irish last name like Cavanagh who'll get the white union vote. I think Dearborn Heights is changing as well, although more Middle Eastern than black.

Same probably goes for the Slavens district, at least in the Van Buren/Belleville portion, Barnett in Farmington Hills, and possibly Lane in the Mt Clemens/Clinton Twp district. I think the Grand Rapids area (city and Kentwood) has the same types of migration, but I'm less familiar there.

The 52nd and 55th (partly) were Snyder wins, as it was the townships where he cleaned up. Redistricting will be tough there. Ouimet lives in Scio Township, so they can't lump Scio with the Ann Arbor City district. Census numbers will be interesting there. If the 52nd can shed part of NE Ann Arbor, they will. It will clash with the 55th which has Pittsfield Township. Monroe County went hard for the GOP this time. John Dingell lost there by 8000 votes. Whether it turns into another St Clair County remains to be seen.

The 67th would have flipped if the last name wasn't Byrum, especially with republicans doing well in Holt and Mason. Byrum runs ahead of everybody in rural areas like Onondaga and Stockbridge. That along with South Lansing, saved the day.

57, 64, 65, Lenawee County no longer has Spades running. That was Walberg's old seat and then the Spade brother took it for 12 years. Griffin ticked off too many people in Jackson County and the late Mike Simpson was just one hell of a candidate in the rural populist district.

Kate Segal's district I think benefited from Albion, Battle Creek, and Springfield all in the same district. Some consider it swing, and I considered it lean dem. Albion's the overlooked variable. Mike Nofs won that district he wasn't supposed to really win on paper for the same reason Mike Simpson won his rural Jackson County he shouldn't have won on paper. People liked them.

23rd District was a populist swing combined with Grosse Ile's GOP base. Huron Township is competitive and went for Bush as well. I'm interested in what Brownstown Twp did. That district leans slightly dem until now. I'm interested in what happens with redistricting. Wayne County's population shift will most that away from the Detroit.

The UP is what shocked me. I thought we would get the 107th back. I didn't expect a 20 pt blowout in the 108th over an incumbent, nor the 110th which was only close once recently (2000). Alpena surprised me as well. That's been the close no cigar district for 15 years. The 103rd surprised me because Sheltrown's a good name there.

The 101st I'll be interested in for 2012 with Obama leading the ticket. There's a Chicago influence out that way along Lake Michigan.

It was a rural and white working class backlash. I know it well. We got socked in 2006 (and 2008 by lesser extent) by the same thing. People are throwing the bums out. If there's a lesson for all sides, it is that mandates didn't exist, do not exist, and won't exist in the future.  

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Tue Nov 23, 2010 at 19:58:42 PM UTC

Keeper (0.00 / 0)

This thread is an instant keeper and reference tool.  Thanks for taking the time to do this, pratt.

Somethings that stuck out to me is how Ann Arbor's influence doesn't seem to extended into the out-county like here in Lansing or in Flint.  This area, in the Irish Hills area, is mostly in Walberg's district, so that could explain to huge swing, this time.  That doesn't seem permanent, nor does the state house seats in the Dingell district.  

I'm a bit more worried about what may be taking place in Northern Michigan and the UP, as I'm not entirely sure what is going on.  It may be a temporary swing, or it may actually be a shift.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 01:27:57 AM UTC

Oops (0.00 / 0)

Read more deeply and see that you are right.  The loss in Washtenaw is a direct effect of Snyder leading up the ticket.  For whatever reason, I don't tend to think of Snyder as being from anywhere, you know, like some slicky marketed product.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 01:46:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ann Arbor's influence extends heavy in four areas (4.00 / 1)

Not counting Ypsi, which is more distinct and has its own long history.

Scio Township (Between Ann Arbor and Dexter) took the most dramatic swing in the last 10 years. It's the reason Walberg struggles in Washtenaw County. It was a swing or marginal blue area until around 2000, but it's not even close these days.

Pittsfield Township between Ann Arbor and Ypsi, and points South is about the same as Scio Township, although the Saline area is a little more conservative than one would expect.

Ann Arbor Township. Parts of it are surrounded by the city but are not incorporated due to annexation laws. Those are no different than Ann Arbor itself in politics. One precinct is the mostly rural just north of the City mostly between Joy Rd and M-14. It was moderately blue in 2000 and now in the 60%+ range.

Superior Township is and always has been blue. Part of it is Willow Run/Ypsi, but the whole area is blue.

Lesser influenced is Manchester (swing), Chelsea (leans blue), Northfield Township (has a Livingston County influence as well), and Saline (City swings, township solidly republican). Throw in Canton (swings) and south of M-36 in Green Oak and Hamburg Township in Livingston County.

I do think there's also a backlash to some affect against Ann Arbor (not as much the Townies) outcounty and its more East Coast style that causes some to "rebel" in their voting. I fully admit that may be my Livingston County bias creeping in however.  

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 02:49:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ann Arbor et al (4.00 / 2)

Any post's worth is determined in part by the comments posted in response. I'm always glad to see Dan (Republican Michigander) commenting, even though though his politics differ from many at ML.

I think Northern Michigan is a much longer-term problem for the Dems than downriver/Washtenaw County. Jackson County has always been a swing county, and the lackluster performance that the local Democratic Party has provided has been a big ucler for Mark Brewer (If anyone wants an ignored copy of the report I did for Mr. Brewer last January, shoot me an email at peterbratt@gmail.com). I think Dan is right on the political geographies of Washtenaw County. Ypsi is its own separate political universe-Ypsilanti City is in many ways like Dearborn, while Ypsilanti Township is much more Republican (although still generally 55-66% Democratic), Southern, and suburban than Ypsi City, which historically was populated by the professional class Germans and New Englanders/upstate New Yorkers until after WWII. Indeed, the City of Ypsilanti turned down the Township's request for annexation at four different times between 1930 and 1959-I doubt the township would want to participate in that deal today. If you want a place to check out neat architecture and a forgotten urban gem, check out Ypsilanti.

I digress. I'd say that Scio and Pittsfield are where UM college students live when they make there money at the age of 40, and still vote Democratic. Some of the more western townships (such as Manchester and Sylvan) are much more republican, but their population is dwarfed by metro Ann Arbor, so it doesn't really add up that much. I haven't broken down the data on the municipal level yet, but I'm pretty sure that Snyder carried everything in Washtenaw except A2 and Ypsilanti City. With Snyder off the ticket in 2012, I think the GOP is going to have a much harder time carrying the 52nd or 55th. You really can't make the 52nd much safer unless you want to sacrifice the 55th. If I was a GOP strategist, I'd much rather strengthen the 55th than the 52nd, and let a self financing candidate like Oumiet try to win on his own.

The Dems really need to develop a long term strategy for northern MI over the next year. Historic loyalties to the Democratic Party isn't going to hold as much weight as time goes by, and the party needs to develop some new faces to mold a new coalition together. I, for one, will be thinking long and hard about this.  

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by: pbratt @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 03:46:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Washtenaw County (0.00 / 0)

Snyder won Ann Arbor Township, Chelsea, Scio Township, and ran even or slightly better in Pittsfield Township. He ran close in Superior Township, losing mostly because of Willow Run/MacArthur Blvd. I'll consider all of those aberrations and not to be expected on a regular basis. He lost bad in the cities of Ann Arbor, Ypsi, and Ypsi Township.

I don't know a lot of differences between Ypsi City and Township outside of EMU. Both have a heavy minority population and labor history. I was a little surprised at how spread out the blue area in Ypsi Township was, and expected it to be more confined to the area near the city. Superior Township seems to be more divided between North and South, and I expected some of the same in Ypsi Township. My gut reaction is Downriver type union traditions, but that might be off base.

If the census numbers are what I expect for 2011 redistricting, Ypsi contracts a little, Ann Arbor suburbs grow, and Ann Arbor (Estimated at 115K) itself can go either way with student fluctuation. If the population is 9.9 Million and there's 90000 in a district, that leaves probably 25K of Ann Arbor that goes into another district. This right now is in the Ouimet district and is his worst area. There's 21K in Ypsi, 49K in Ypsi Township, and 11K in Superior Township. Salem's in that district, but is more culturally with South Lyon than Washtenaw County. Can East Ann Arbor get pushed to Ypsi with a Pittsfield Twp Split (there already is a slight Pittsfield break)? I'd rather get Superior Twp and Salem than Ann Arbor, but we'll see.

Up North (and the thumb) I expect to continue to be very independent and a nightmare for both parties. They don't have a lot of tolerance for arrogance or bs and expect candidates to be honest, humble, and have common sense. We got ripped there in 06, and you got ripped there in 2010. I don't know what will happen there, but nobody can take it for granted. They vote the person there and not the party.

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 17:44:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree about the backlash effect (0.00 / 0)

This is often visible in countywide elections, where there is often a divide between Ann Arbor and the outcounty area, as Ann Arbor's priorities and attitudes are very different from the rest of the county.

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by: Seth9 @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 03:49:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, then... (0.00 / 0)

So what you're saying is that all of the pickups around Ann Arbor are a direct result of Snyder's candidacy, right?  I just want to be sure.

Looking how the state house seats are drawn around those parts, it looks like the GOP did a very good job cutting up suburban Ann Arbor to dilute it's influence.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 04:38:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldn't say all of them were (0.00 / 0)

but 52 certainly was. 55 and 56 were certainly greatly impacted by this race as well.

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by: pbratt @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 14:05:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm (0.00 / 0)

I'm really only belaboring the point about Ann Arbor's influence because I imagine 55 and 52 have to be more blue-leaning than 67, which basically covers all of Ingham County outside Lansing and East Lansing, yet Dems have been able to win and then subsequently hold such an incredibly rural seat in such an increasibly tough year for Dems.  Barb Byrum got a really good challenge this time, and it seems like someone like her should have lost.  Perhaps, more of the population of 67 is in Lansing proper than I assume.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Thu Nov 25, 2010 at 02:29:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

52nd yes, 55th possible (0.00 / 0)

Ouimet (52nd) won because of Snyder and his money and moderate reputation. That district has part of the City of Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Township, and Scio Township.

The 55th was hard to tell because Rick Olson did very well in Monroe County, but he won by 500 votes the Washtenaw County portion too so Snyder influenced it.  

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Wed Nov 24, 2010 at 16:55:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

HOUSE (0.00 / 0)

loomed very large.
House control was lost by a cumulative margin of less than than 18,000.

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by: Egalitare @ Fri Nov 26, 2010 at 10:48:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry cut and paste frazzle (0.00 / 0)

The Snyder factor loomed large, especially in a low turnout environment. A lot of "our" voters figured the election was already settled, and our downballot candidates got impacted. As I posted above, control of the House was lost by less than 18,000 votes, and while many of those were "swing" districts, the margin was "our" voters staying home, not GOP voters swamping the polls.

Just to put this in perspective, Nationally the 28 closest House races were decided by less than 300,000 votes. These margins get lost in all the talk of mandates, waves and counting of seats picked up. The GOP didn't post overwhelming numbers of voters. They could have been defeated by a marginally better ground game. We simply didn't invest in one because media spending cannibalizes GOTV efforts. The fog of campaigning creates that bias: "this radio ad buy will move the needle" is patently false when the same amount of money can get you several hundred door to door contacts to casual voters.

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by: Egalitare @ Fri Nov 26, 2010 at 11:06:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lansing (0.00 / 1)

I'm really only belaboring the point about Ann Arbor's influence because I imagine 55 and 52 have to be more blue-leaning than 67, which basically covers all of Ingham County outside Lansing and East Lansing, yet Dems have been able to win and then subsequently hold such an incredibly rural seat in such an increasibly tough year for Dems.

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by: Gassepraxia @ Thu Nov 25, 2010 at 07:15:54 AM UTC