How to Recall the Governor

In other words, it's about like running a fall campaign. (4.00 / 1)

You have the same tasks as involved in a GOTV operation, only with demonstrable, measurable outcomes, rather than "X pieces of literature dropped" (dropped, yes, but who knows where?)

A number of times we've had paid canvassers for GOTV in Kalamazoo County; after the last time in 2010, I swore that I would never be involved in another such fiasco ever again. The only measurable effect it had was a slight stimulus to the local economy from the wages paid.

Now, of the above roles, I've worked (in campaigns, not recalls) as (9) canvasser, (8) driver/supervisor, (5) office organizer, (4) MIS (although not at a state-wide level), (3) data entry. All of these were volunteer on my part, but I get where the stress points are.

I think you could do it for maybe $4-$5 mil, using more volunteer labor, IF the party and unions (assuming an R being recalled) were fully on board. And this would likely be the case, IF your first assumption -- that the official is unpopular enough that 60% of solicited voters are willing to sign -- were true. That condition would entail a highly motivated party and auxiliaries eager to get on the bandwagon.

That is my no means the case for the Snyder recall. My direct observation suggests the compliant fraction is more in the 30-35% range. Which, if true, given the fraction to be collected, makes the task virtually impossible - regardless of how much imaginary money our team started out with.

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by: memiller @ Sun Aug 21, 2011 at 21:40:29 PM UTC

Paid canvassers (0.00 / 0)

We had paid canvassers for the transit millage in GR - and the millage passed by 136 votes out of 34,000. I don't know how many canvassers there were, but suffice it to say there were quite a few. Did it make the difference? I haven't seen the evidence, but it would seem that it at least helped.

Perhaps it's different from election to election. Last year, not much could've stopped the drought of Democratic voters. As both of you (Grebner and Miller) have mentioned, there have been a lot of flaws in the way GOTV has been run up to this point. In particular, GOTV efforts often reach out to those who would not be swayed by such efforts, while those who would be swayed do not hear from us.

Perhaps it would be wise to adjust the strategy.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Sun Aug 21, 2011 at 22:01:50 PM UTC

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I think we could get 60% to sign a Snyder recall petition (4.00 / 1)

That's based on some polling we did in HD51, which showed Paul Scott only slightly more unpopular than Snyder.  Canvassers in that district were able to get slightly over 50% to sign Paul Scott petitions.  Finally, HD51 is considerably more Republican than the state as a whole, so we should be able to get better percentages than we did against Scott.

Maybe 60% is too high, but I'd be pretty confident of exceeding 50%.

Keep in mind that with hundreds of canvassers in the field, there's a Darwinian selection process for the best opening lines.  The pitch that get the most signatures - even if it's of dubious honesty - spread quickly among the staff.  Over time, the best canvassers are the ones that continue, since they're the ones who actually earn decent money.  Their pitches gradually evolve to match each situation that arises.

I'm told that by the end in HD51, one of the most effective tacks was for the canvasser to explain that he hadn't been able to find a real job, and that this gig paid $3 per signature - so if everybody at this address signed, he'd make enough to buy his kid's diapers.  HD51 wasn't very friendly territory, but the number of signatures gathered - in exactly 14 days - was 2000 more than needed.

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by: Grebner @ Mon Aug 22, 2011 at 00:55:10 AM UTC

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Yikes! (0.00 / 0)

...the canvasser to explain that he hadn't been able to find a real job, and that this gig paid $3 per signature - so if everybody at this address signed, he'd make enough to buy his kid's diapers.

Well, well... democracy in action.

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by: memiller @ Mon Aug 22, 2011 at 02:56:17 AM UTC

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Bottom Line Numbers for Recall of Snyder (0.00 / 0)

I read Grebner's comment and explanation of earlier comment with respect and interest.  I just have to take issue with his pessimism.  Based on the numbers, recall petition gatherers must obtain 806,522 signatures.  This is about 11.1% of the total registered voters as of July 2011 and 10.6% of the voting age population as of 2010.  While the goal may be difficult, it is not out of reach if one counts those who typically do not vote.

The recall petition drive may seem quixotic.  But this is not a valid reason for not signing and supporting it.  What is politics without ideals, a brokering of only what is probable.  In a democratic system that has inherent bias for leeping things as they are. the probable should never preclude the possible.  Ideals and dreams collide with realities in everyday politics.  But is is never a reason for not nurturing or possessing ideals and dreams of what could be.

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by: Jim Brazier @ Mon Aug 22, 2011 at 19:26:26 PM UTC

A lot of those "non-voting registered voters" don't exist. (0.00 / 0)

Michigan's voter rolls typically have about the same number of names as the total adult population of the state.  Roughly 3 million of those records are duplicate or reflect people who have moved or died.  There are really about 5.2 million people registered to vote at the address at which they currently reside.  So 800,000 is 15% of that total.  

Let's guess half of those approached will decline to sign, and half of the ones who would be willing to sign won't appear at any public gathering which your circulators are able to cover. If 10% of the signatures you collect are bad because of circulator error or wrong township/city, and 10% more are duplicates, it would mean you basically need to collect every possible signature from everybody at every event.  And that means that by the end, 80% of the people you approach will have previously signed, or previously refused.  Good luck!

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by: Grebner @ Mon Aug 22, 2011 at 22:12:51 PM UTC

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Is the QVF of poor quality? (0.00 / 0)

The QVF replaces the old voter registration rolls.  In my experience of worling elections, I have observed improvements in accuracy.  The 15% cited by Grebner seems high but I have not had a firm that seeks to validate the QVF and enhance it for lists like Practical Political Consultants.

More than any other issue, the recall drive suffers from poor management in giving feedback to circulators.  I receive plenty of emails asking me to show up at large people events but there is never any feedback on the number of signatures obtained so far except when there was a renewal of the drive with a new start date of July 1.  While I have confined myself to my neighborhood and social circles for circulation, the efficacy of big events for signature productivity may explain the strict scrutiny that apply to instructions for such circulators and all others.

I have found that leaders are convinced that minor glitches will disqualify signatures and petitions.  The only evidence for this fear has been the new format for petitions that requires separate sheets for each municipality from the S of S.

I have found that people conflate signing the petition with disapproving of Snyder as a person instead of using it just to express dissatisfaction with his policies.  One signer heard of Snyder's record of support Ellie's place and is related to the founders.  This personl will not sign because the founders have been asking people not to do so.  Another person who is an advocate for the poor will not sign because of the fear that there be a loss of influence with the Snyder administration.  Many are convinced that the GOP scrutinizes the petition for their signatures.  I have found this to be the case for state executives.  If the target number is not reached it will be due to these people who would sign but do not because of a variety of political reasons.

Missing the first target date will also undercut the recall drive since there is a sense of failure emanating from the earlier effort.

It will not be easy to achieve success but the effort is worth it for the sake of the ideals that empower our politics.

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by: Jim Brazier @ Sat Aug 27, 2011 at 16:35:50 PM UTC

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