15 weeks until filing deadline: Congressional campaigns heat up; DFA voting underway

Some State lawmakers need a new job (4.00 / 1)

The reps primaring Conyers either face term limits or soon will. They need jobs, and there's a new district. Anderson, Jackson, and Johnson I believe are all term limited.

Conyers is over 80, and his wife is in prison and very, very, very, unpopular. Carolyn Kilpatrick lost partly because of her son, and partly due to Hansen Clarke being a hell of a campaigner with a nice-guy reputation. I think many reps there see an opening.

I think Peters has no chance, and that the "Crossover white" vote won't necessarily go his away as it would if it was Conyers v Peters. Hansen Clarke ran very will with white people in his elections, much more than Carolyn Kilpatrick and John Conyers did in previous races (comparing them to top of the ticket). Brenda Lawrence by all accounts has a good rep as a competent mayor in a tough position with demographic changes (income class, not race - Southfield's been black majority for years).

I think Clarke will win, but wouldn't be surprised if Lawrence did. Conyers I think has a tougher race with more variables.  

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 21:12:18 PM UTC

Anderson and Johnson aren't term-limited (4.00 / 1)

Anderson's term goes through 2014, and Johnson is in his first term and could be in office until 2018. Shanelle Jackson is term-limited, however.

I disagree about Peters having no chance. He has an incredible ground game and broad support. I'd say he's the favorite at this point.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 03:06:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No chance? (4.00 / 1)

You say Peters has no chance? I would say that is not a very astute evaluation. Not only has he been a good Representitive, but take a look at his campaign filing figures. He has , by far, the most cash. It's too bad that Clarke will have to leave Congress. He's a good man.

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by: Mitch @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 12:53:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not just SOPA with Conyers (0.00 / 0)

Conyers has repeatedly tried to extend copyright protections beyond what is reasonable at the expense of the public interest. For instance, he also favors overturning the NIH Public Access Policy. While I agree with you that single-issue voting is not generally a good practice, these positions make me question Conyers' judgment and if I were in his district, I would give Anderson a strong look.

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by: Seth9 @ Tue Jan 31, 2012 at 21:39:54 PM UTC

Conyers (0.00 / 0)

Conyers time has come and gone.  He's probably stayed a term or two too many for my liking.  If I lived in the district, it'd be time to thank him for his service and send him on his way.  I think it's time that all the old guard stand down, many of them being 80+ and let others take the reins.  Conyers has definitely been slipping as of late.

In the 14th, if by some chance Clarke gets bumped, I'd hope it'd be in favor for Lawrence.  I'm a huge fan of Clarke, easily one of the most genuine people in Congress, so I do hope he survives.  There has been much made about the expanded borders of these districts into the suburbs, but my gut tells me that these will continue to be very much Detroit-based districts for a time to come, and I think that's a good thing.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 01:36:40 AM UTC

A Note on the 14th (0.00 / 0)

In the nearly five months since Rep. Gary Peters announced his run for the 14th District and Rep. Hansen Clarke "traded" districts with Rep. John Conyers so he could run there as well, I've been very impressed by the civility shown.

So far as I can tell, neither Peters nor Clarke has gone negative against his opponent (I'm on Peters' email list and Clarke's Facebook group). This is a good thing.

But now, with only six months until the August primary, and the March 10 Democratic "Endorsement Convention" looming, will Brenda Lawrence have to go negative to get some traction against two sitting members of Congress who have served honorably and scandal-free, each of whom have entrenched constituents and money in the bank (Peters has a lot more, but Clarke isn't exactly squeezing nickels)?

The attack lines are pretty obvious:

Hansen Clarke is a freshman, charismatic but light on accomplishments, with a tendency towards "big progressive ideas" that are doomed to never see a committee vote, never mind becoming law. Comparing Clarke in 2011 to Peters in 2009 (his first year) shows a stark contrast in how effective each was in getting bills and amendments passed -- though to be fair, Peters was part of a huge Democratic majority supporting a popular President, whereas Clarke took office along with the new Tea Party-driven GOP House majority. That said, Clarke's far too liberal for the "Greater Detroit" of the NEW 14th, which is after all more than half suburban.

Gary Peters has a more conservative voting record (given his background and the "purple" nature of the current 9th, this is not a shock), and has on several occasions been lumped in with the dreaded "Blue Dogs." He has voted against the President more often than Clarke, and could be portrayed as "representing white suburban business interests over the people of the City of Detroit" -- highlighted by the fact that Clarke is a member of the Congressional Black Caucus.

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by: helzapoppn @ Wed Feb 01, 2012 at 21:18:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just to be clear.... (0.00 / 0)

the March 10 Endorsement Convention will not have any legislative races on the agenda. Only Supreme Court and Education Boards (state Bd of Ed, UofM, MSU, Wayne).

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by: memiller @ Thu Feb 02, 2012 at 23:09:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

7th District... (0.00 / 0)

Is any Democrat running against "Congressman Tim"?  I've heard no names for the seat.  Maybe with redistricting the chances are small, but I bet Howard Dean's 50 State plan would at least have a credible candidate to contest the seat.  I'm sorry Mark Schauer isn't running again...  

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by: firescot6 @ Fri Feb 03, 2012 at 12:41:11 PM UTC

recruitment agencies (0.00 / 1)

That said, he's got quite a bit of grassroots support, so it could happen. Plus, the non-Detroit parts of the district usually see higher turnout than Detroit. I wonder, however, if Conyers might benefit from a split anti-Conyers vote.
recruitment agencies

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by: jameel123 @ Fri Feb 17, 2012 at 12:36:26 PM UTC