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Presidential Primary prediction contest!

by: Grebner

Tue Feb 21, 2012 at 22:07:51 PM EST


I know of two competing assessments of which Republican will win each of Michigan's 14 CDs.  If you have a guess, or hear of somebody else's prediction, please post it, and I will update my chart.

Winning at the district level will essentially completely determine the allocation of delegates, since the winner of each district gets both delegates assigned, and there are only two at-large delegates, who will certainly be split 1-1 between Romney and Santorum.

PPC's prediction was published in MIRS, Feb 20.  Foster, McCollum & White's prediction was published in Gongwer (to which I don't have access) and reproduced in a reply here on ML.

If you want to play, just post a reply with your predictions.  Here's the scoring I'll use:  1 point for every correct guess, -2 points for every incorrect guess, and no score where you don't want to hazard a guess.  So if you don't know, you don't have to provide an answer. 

2/28/2012 GOP Presidential Primary Prediction Contest

CD   FMW  PPC  DonK  MGG  RM   MEM   SU   PB   FMW2 538

  1     S       S      S       S      S      R      S      S      S      S
  2     S       S      S       S      S      S      S      S      S      S
  3      -       S      S       R      S      -       S      R      R       -
  4     S       S      S       S      S      S       S      S      R      S
  5     -        R      S       S      S      S       S      R      R      -
  6     S       S      S        S      S      R      S      S      R      S
  7     -        R      S        S      S      S      S      S      S      -
  8     S       R      S        S      R      R      S      R      R      -
  9     R       R       R       R      R      R      S      R      R      R
10     S       S       S       S      S      -       S      S      -      -
11     R       R       R       R      R      R      R      R      R      R
12     S       R       S       R      R      R      S      R      R      R
13     S       R       R       R      S      -       R      R      R      R
14     R       R       R       R      R      R      R      R      R      R

FMW total: Santorum 8, Romney 3, tossup 3.

PPC  total: Santorum 5, Romney 9.

DonK total: Santorum 9, Romney 4. 

MiddleGrandGuy total: Santorum 8, Romney 6.

Republican Michigander total: Santorum 9, Romney 5.

MEMiller total: Santorum 4, Romney 7, tossup 3.

Scotty Urb total: Santorum 11, Romney 3. 

PBratt total: Santorum 6, Romney 8. 

FMW2 total: Santorum 3, Romney 10, tossup 1.

538.com: Santorum 4, Romney 5, tossup 5.

Grebner :: Presidential Primary prediction contest!

For extra credit, guess the total number of Republican primary votes cast.

PPC's guess:  810,000

 

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My Guess (0.00 / 0)
I'll guess Romney gets 9, 11, 13, 14, and Santorum wins 1-8, 10, 12, so Santorum 10, Romney 4.

Total votes? 780,000


Interesting! You're basically predicting the end of the world for Mitt. (0.00 / 0)
It might happen, but if it does, it would be the beginning of the end for Mitt.  If he can't carry Michigan, when he's still able to outspend everybody else 3-1, what chance will he have when his spending is at parity, and as the campaign moves into the South?

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I was (0.00 / 0)
Well, that's the way I felt on Tuesday. Looking at it now I'd say 7-7 or 8-6 either way. Romney could lose the popular vote and still win 8 districts because Santorum will have some real vote sinks in West Michigan and Livingston County. But that's my guess and I'll live with it.

By the way, I'm not seeing a 3-1 Romney spending advantage. When I'm watching TV it seems to me every Romney ad is followed by a Santorum ad, and Santorum has had the only direct mail in my neighborhood.


[ Parent ]
My guess (0.00 / 0)
1: S?
2: S
3: R
4: S
5: S
6: S
7: S
8: S
9: R
10: S
11: R
12: R
13: R
14: R

I guess it's 8-6 for Santorum as far as I see it, and I think Santorum pulls off the popular vote, too.  I basically see Santorum winning everything outside of Southeast Michigan, except maybe Grand Rapids, and I'm very tempted to say that the 1st could be a surprise, even though it seems way counter-intuitive to some.  I'm just thinking something funny might happen up in Marquette.  I'm also interested to see just how high Ron Paul gets in my 8th.

As for predicting the popular vote, I have absolutely no idea.  It'd be a total shot in the dark.  Just based off gut feeling that this doesn't feel like 2008 I'll go with 750,000.


Dist. 1 (0.00 / 0)
I can tell ya - District 1 doesn't give a wet slap that Willard was born in Lower Michigan.

Plus, I know a few U.P. Dems from the "shenanigans caucus" who are looking forward to torpedoing Romney.  


The Shenanigans Caucus needs to Mobilize, 2000-style.... (0.00 / 0)
Twelve years ago, Sen John McCain scored his biggest primary win and single largest delegate haul when he beat George W. Bush here in Michigan.

The then-wife and I were proud "McCain-iacs" for a day. I've since read that the impact of Democrats taking the GOP ballot was greatly overblown, but I don't have access to hard numbers one way or the other.

For 2012, now that we have the MDP's blessing to both vote in the primary and still take part in the 5 May Caucuses, I hope we really do help deliver a crushing defeat to Willard "Mitt" Romney.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
I've read it was 20% crossover (0.00 / 0)
That sounds significant to me.

I don't know what to expect this time, or which way the dems go in crossovers.



"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP


[ Parent ]
risky (0.00 / 0)
what if some type of major scandal or an October surprise happens and brings down Obama.  Wouldn't we be worse off with Santorum than Mitt?

[ Parent ]
I'm going to hazard my guess (0.00 / 0)
I have 9-6 Santorum, although I'm not strongly confident on the 3rd, 8th, 10th, 12th and 13th.

1 - Santorum - Romney will get the coastal area, but I don't think it will be enough. Ron Paul may be a factor here as well.

2 - Santorum - Romney lost here in 2008

3 - Santorum - Close, but I think Barry and Ionia Counties will make the difference. Kentwood is now in the 2nd district as well, hurting Romney.

4 - Santorum - Just a bad matchup district for Romney

5 - Santorum - Probably his best district.

6 - Santorum - Romney lost here in 2008

7 - Santorum - Another bad matchup district

8 - Romney - Toughest to predict, even living here. I think Romney narrowly takes it with big numbers by Rochester and splitting the rest of the district. I wish I knew where the Oakland lead was. Is it across the board, or limited to the Bloomfields/Birmingham, Farmington Hills areas. North Oakland's a bit different than the Oakland County portrayed in the media. Livingston's more conservative, but both candidates have a fiscal right flank for different reasons. I can see either candidate taking it, but I'm guessing Romney.

9 - Romney - Easily

10 - Santorum - The thumb expands in this district. Macomb's impossible to predict. I'm going with my gut.

11 - Romney - His best district. Plymouth and Northville, along with parts of the Bloomfields, Troy, and Birmingham.

12 - Romney - I think the Ann Arbor area independents and crossovers will save him. I could be wrong depending if downriver turns out. I think RonPaul does well here with Dearborn and UM/EMU itself.

13 - Santorum - I'm going against the grain here. I'm banking that Romney's Wayne County polling lead is due to Grosse Pointe, Northville, and Plymouth. I think Redford and Westland is much tougher territory for him. I don't know if Detroit plans on sending a message like 2000 or not.

14 - Romney - Grosse Pointe, Farmington Hills, and West Bloomfield. That's not Santorum territory.

Some of those are easier than others to predict.

Total turnout 1.2 million.

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP


I have an unfair advantage (0.00 / 0)
posting my guesses now -- I've seen the others, and I think we're beginning to sense the Santorum wave has crested.

1 R
2 S
3 -
4 S
5 S
6 R
7 S
8 R
9 R
10 -
11 R
12 R
13 -
14 R

But then, I have a pretty poor track record on this sort of thing. I thought Kerry was going to win easily.


Gonna be more decisive than people expect (0.00 / 0)
1: S
2: S
3: S
4: S
5: S
6: S
7: S
8: S
9: S
10: S
11: R
12: S
13: R
14: R

Santorum wins the delegate count 23-7, and wins the popular vote 44-32 (14 for Paul, 8 for Gingrich, 2 for the others).

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: The Grand Rapids Press, which rarely endorses Democrats, backs Winnie Brinks


Presidential Primary prediction contest! (0.00 / 0)
In New Hapsire there is the next results of primary presidential contest:
Top 3 finishers and percentage.  
Romney 34%  
Paul 22%  
Huntsman 17%  

Others:  
Santorum 12%  
Newt 10%

Tiebreaker: 225,000 voters.


My prediction (0.00 / 0)
1: S
2: S
3: R
4: S
5: R
6: S
7: S
8: R
9: R
10: S
11: R
12: R
13: R
14: R

Turnout 764,938

Romney 8, Santorum 6. My guess, like Mark's, is that Santorum peaked too early, and isn't up to the task in Michigan. However, I'm eager to be proven wrong by Santorum.



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