What the suits call a win-win: Sink your ballot proposal while flushing away your credibility

Just read this

I can't believe I'm about to say this, but I might not vote for 2 just because of this unholy alliance.  You know, they ineleganty say "any stick to beat a horse."  Well, I'm not sure I want to pick up this stick, this time.  Someone talk me down.  This is so incredibly craven and cynical.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 03:40:58 AM UTC

Desperation

Prop 2 is sinking under the weight of an ugly teevee ad campaign that has effectively equated collective bargaining with allowing child molesting teachers to run rampant in school classrooms. Polling shows Prop 2 is almost certain to be defeated if things continue on their present course; a defeat almost certainly means Republicans will shove Right to Work down our throats next year absent an unlikely Democratic takeover of the state House.

There is near-parity in spending on both sides of Prop 2 and that's a problem for labor. Prop 2 opponents have the advantage of simply creating doubt--which research shows results in many voters opting to vote no.  

To overcome this default to no voting, the yes side should be outspending the no side by 3-to-1. Unfortunately, the labor folks thought they could do this campaign with about a third of the money they really needed to succeed and now find themselves facing an existential threat to their existence if they go down to defeat next month.  

So they are dealing for cash. They are desperate. This is not likely to end well.

 

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by: LiberalBubba @ Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:02:33 AM UTC

Polling

How recent is the polling you've seen?  I've seen two polls done on two, both with the measure polling ahead, but with caveats by some pollsters that it's not high enough to guaruntee it's passage.  So, seems to me that this is more likely to pass than not, and I've seen nothing in the way of polling since the despicable child ads were ran against the proposal.

Of the proposals, it seems like the bridge one (despite it's spending) has polled the worst, three and four have been polling the best, and the rest (including two) seem to be polling somewhere inbetween.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 06:34:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

None are near 50% approval

Prop 2 is at 43% approval and Prop 3 40%. The only one above 50% is Prop 4, the home health care one.  This from yesterday's DTW News. Unless things change they are going down because it's highly likely the 10-15% undecided break to a "no" vote by a large margin.  Would like to see some other numbers if you have them.  

http://www.detroitnews.com/art...

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by: LiberalBubba @ Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 13:05:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A couple thoughts

First of all, polling on ballot initiatives is notoriously inaccurate. For all we know, if the election were held today, it could pass easily - or it could fail easily. Or it could be neck-and-neck. Polling on the 2006 affirmative-action proposal was neck-and-neck; it ended up passing by a considerable margin. There was a proposal about 10 years ago that had to do with allocating the tobacco settlement money. After getting 60% support in a poll, that one ended up going down by a 70-30% margin.

That said, the PWF folks need to be telling the truth about how these millionaires and billionaires are trying to buy our democracy, and how they are resorting to fear, etc. (Americans soundly oppose corporate influence on politics; PWF needs to take advantage of that!)

They have talked about why collective bargaining is needed; now that they are being attacked, they need to fight fire with fire. They can't just refute what the other side is saying; they actually need to frame the issue. No holds barred; the working class is depending on it.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:02:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly correct.

You really can't predict the outcome of ballot proposals from telephone-based polls.  I'm in the middle of conducting an extremely labor-intensive "straw ballot" poll, which involves taking facsimile ballots to the doors of random voters and asking them to complete and mail them back anonymously.

Let's just say that not all the polls recently published by the newspapers are going to turn out to have been correct.

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by: Grebner @ Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 05:38:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This sounds ominous

But, my interest is piqued.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Thu Oct 18, 2012 at 15:53:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you study the published polls long enough...

... you will erase any trace of knowledge you may have picked up through common sense or talking to ordinary people. I plan to post my picks here on ML, on the eve of the election.  I may not get them all correct, but I bet I'm at least in the right ballpark.  Which is more than will be said of some other polls....

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by: Grebner @ Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 09:56:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mo' Money? Same Problem

Ain't gonna fix the problem.  The fact that they still have not replied to the child molester allegations with any force is the reason.  This late in the game that genie isn't going back in the bottle.

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by: Fez Marie Whatley @ Sat Oct 13, 2012 at 04:41:05 AM UTC

Bob King

Ruh-roh.  Bobby King has fucked up bad...really bad:

Unions on both sides of the border support a new publicly owned international bridge and are surprised that UAW President Bob King might not.

"I am shocked," said Canadian Auto Workers President Ken Lewenza, who was planning to call King on Friday for clarification. "Until I talk to Bob, I won't believe it."

Lewenza said the New International Trade Crossing "is the most significant infrastructure project in Canadian history. The CAW supports the bridge."

Mike Jackson, executive secretary-treasurer of the 14,000-member Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, said Friday the new bridge "seemed like a no-brainer to us" and would put many of its members back to work.

So, then Bobby King gets back from South Korea and is neither denying nor affirming that he's talking to Matty, but gives some bullshit answer that Matty hasn't (yet) bought the UAW.  I can't believe he thought he could lay down with a dog, and believe that no one would find out when the fleas started biting everyone.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Sun Oct 14, 2012 at 01:23:26 AM UTC