Lil' Fella now faces uphill climb in race against Pestka, himself

Questions about poll

I like this poll, but I'd want to see the cross tabs, and am really suspicious about the high percentage of undecided voters. However, given that this poll is in line with Pestka's polls, and Amash has no one in the GOP outside the 3rd District going to lift a finger for him (with the exception of the Pauls), this is good news in the 3rd District.

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by: pbratt @ Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 15:16:57 PM UTC

Undecided voters

I think the large bulk of undecided voters are in Calhoun County, at least that's what I've heard from the Pestka folks and deciphered from the stuff I've read here and there. It's a new county, and both guys are unknowns there. I wouldn't get overly jubilant over things, but I think that's probably a good sign since Mark Schauer got on the Pestka bus early on.  And, since I don't see Joe Schwarz lifting a finger to help Lil' Fella (they are very different kinds of Republicans, after all), that means a few advantages down there.

I think Lil' Fella was overconfident that he represented a west Michigan district as a Republican and as such would always win a general election race with little effort.  He might -- and maybe even probably -- still win, but his poor decision making has made this a winnable race.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 15:32:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Calhoun

If most of the undecides are in Calhoun, I think that bodes rather well for Steve. Try to think of Calhoun as three different regions. The first are the core minority precincts in Battle Creek and Albion City that will go at least 70% for Obama. Here one needs to worry about turnout rather the persuasion. The second portion consists of the remainder of Battle Creek and Albion that house a large working class white population that leans Democratic, but needs encouragement and some persuasion to get voters to the polls. If Dems can get around 56% of the voters here, that puts Steve in a good position. The remainder of Calhoun County makes up the third region. If Pestka can stay above 47%, he'll be in great shape.

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by: pbratt @ Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 15:49:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Calhoun

If most of the undecides are in Calhoun, I think that bodes rather well for Steve. Try to think of Calhoun as three different regions. The first are the core minority precincts in Battle Creek and Albion City that will go at least 70% for Obama. Here one needs to worry about turnout rather the persuasion. The second portion consists of the remainder of Battle Creek and Albion that house a large working class white population that leans Democratic, but needs encouragement and some persuasion to get voters to the polls. If Dems can get around 56% of the voters here, that puts Steve in a good position. The remainder of Calhoun County makes up the third region. If Pestka can stay above 47%, he'll be in great shape.

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by: pbratt @ Mon Oct 22, 2012 at 15:49:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The article shows where the undecideds are:

Here:

Pestka's lead is strongest in the city of Grand Rapids where he's beating Amash by 28 percentage points, 56 percent to 28 percent with 15 percent undecided.

Amash is ahead of Pestka 44 percent to 30.3 percent in Kent County, not counting Grand Rapids, where 24.7 percent are undecided. The freshman congressman is also more than 16 percentage points ahead in Barry, Ionia and a small part of Montcalm County that's included in the district, 26.7 percent to 20.6 percent with 38.2 percent undecided.

In Calhoun County, where 44.6 percent of voters are undecided, Pestka leads Amash 29.7 percent to 18.9 percent.

I'm also rather skeptical about the number of undecideds in this poll, but the general theme it found is one that's been corroborated with other polls done in the district, and that is that this thing is actually close.

BTW, why has no one done polling in MI-11, easily one of the most interesting and bizarre races in the entire country at the moment?  Seems to me that Dems would want to be hear polling...that is if they actually thought that they could win it.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 03:08:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

strategic loss in 11th

I think the GOP establishment are aiming for a strategic loss to Taj thinking that he will be easier to beat in 2014 as compared to an incumbent Bentiviolio.  I've begun to notice Tajs signs on private property along with signs for republican candidates.  

The conservative Novi.org website endorsed every republican candidate but Bentiviolio and stated: "We believe Dr. Syed Taj, a well-respected retired physician, would best represent us in Washington, and while we don't agree with all of his positions, we do believe that Bentiviolio is just too extreme and carries with him an odd array of baggage that leads us to seriously question his ability to serve." http://novi.org/opinions.htm

Dailytribune editor recommends: "Hold your nose, if you have to, but plunk down your vote for the Democrat. In two years, this mess can be straightened out and a field of reputable GOP candidates will surely emerge to vie for the seat." http://www.dailytribune.com/ar...  This article also claims: "When facing a lawsuit and testimony before a jury [Bentivolio] uttered some amazing statements about believing he lived a dual life and perhaps needed mental health treatment. In a legal deposition, he reportedly blurted out, 'I have a problem figuring out which one I really am, Santa Claus or Kerry Bentivolio.'"

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by: ibelieveinMichigan @ Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 14:59:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DCCC Strategy

If the above is true, then perhaps the DCCC figures it is best not to spend a lot of money on a race that may be a one-time fluke.  

It sounds like a win-win in the short term for the Dems regardless of the outcome on Nov. 6th even if there is no long-term win.  

If Taj wins, they get an extra vote in Congress for a term followed by a likely GOP win in Nov. 2014.  If Bentivolio wins, they get a volatile GOP primary in Aug. 2014 followed by a likely GOP win in Nov. 2014.

I can see why they might think there money is better spent elsewhere.

"I never did give anybody hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell." -- Harry S Truman

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by: Butch Snider @ Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 17:52:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There, their, they're...

...sigh.....

"I never did give anybody hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell." -- Harry S Truman

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by: Butch Snider @ Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 17:53:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are you sure?

What I've been hearing out of the district and even the media is that both sides realize that Bentivolio is likely to win both the special and general just because of the lean of the district, and that they aren't spending any money this time around, and will primary him out in 2014.  I have heard absolutely nothing indicating that they think Taj has this in the bag or even that's it's really a dead heat.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 00:40:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Internall Polling in the 11th...

Shows the race to a dead heat.  The Taj campaign just started a new ad buy on broadcast and cable that educates voters on Bentivolio's record and what other Repubs think of him.

The 11th should come down to the wire as well.

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by: 48101 Guy @ Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 15:33:32 PM UTC

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BTW

Amash needs a new spokesperson or maybe they really are in a lot of trouble, because the tone out of that office the past few weeks has been down-right bitteer and undisciplined and unusually so for a campaign for an incumbent.  You can almost smell the desperation.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Tue Oct 23, 2012 at 03:10:01 AM UTC

I've noticed that

My favorite? They claimed that he wouldn't be participating in any forums for... wait for it... financial reasons.

Uh, hello? You don't pay to participate in a forum! They're free! They're inviting you, Justin! I didn't have to pay to participate in a candidate forum a couple weeks ago.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Thu Oct 25, 2012 at 02:17:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]