Latest PPP poll: State still hates benevolent overlord Rick Michigan

Here's the piece on PPP's website:

Here. One thing I find telling:

It could get worse for Snyder before it gets better. These Democrats all lead despite having very little statewide name recognition- 46% of voters are familiar with Bernero and from there it drops to 35% who know Peters and just 30% who know Schauer. As a result the undecideds in all of these contests lean strongly toward people who disapprove of Snyder and voted for Barack Obama last year. Those are folks likely to end up in the Democratic column once the party has a candidate and that person builds up their name recognition.

I'm not sure how many people pay attention to the fact that it was rushed through, other than those of us who pay attention to the processes behind this - and it's not like our votes are going to be swayed.

It's interesting that MIRS is suggesting that Peters and Schauer aren't likely to run. I don't have subscribers' access to MIRS anymore, but I did see a headline a few weeks ago about Schauer being, in their analysis, unlikely to run. That could be, but either way, I would like to know their reasoning - i.e., has he said as much?

PPP did a similar poll back in December, they tested him against four Democrats: These three plus Whitmer (the only one of those four who has since declined to run). That leaves three people who may very well run - which contradicts the "Dems-have-no-candidate" chatter.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 21:03:46 PM UTC

My guess is that Snyder won't run for re-election.

From now until the filing deadline, Snyder has every reason to PRETEND to be running again, even if he's sure he won't.  It's no fun being a lame duck, especially an unpopular one.  Nobody will give you a tough vote, and nobody really cares what you think, if they know you're on your way out.  So there's every reason for Snyder to sound like he's planning his next campaign.

But let's look at the world from his genuine perspective, and try to ignore the hints that may be designed precisely to mislead us.  The only issues he really cares about - cutting taxes on business - have been pushed to their limits.  Beginning last year, and continuing as long as he's in office, the far right is interested in ramming through crazier and crazier legislation, and then cornering Snyder to force him to sign it.  (My reading of RTW is different from everybody else's: I think Snyder signed it because it was the only way to buy enough votes to get the rest of his Lame Duck agenda through.  If he hadn't given them RTW, every single bill he wanted would have been side-tracked and killed.  If you look at the roll calls, after he signed RTW, Snyder picked up a lot of unlikely Republicans for things like the Bus Rapid Transit authority in the Metro area.  I don't think that was a fluke, but a deal.)

It would be bad enough to suffer through two more years of this.  What will be the point of signing up for four ADDITIONAL years, during which he really WILL be a lame duck? He has no future in national politics, given his dangerously squishy views on abortion/guns/Obamacare/...  So staying for a second term would be risking being trapped in  no-win squabbling over issues he either opposes or doesn't care about.

My guess is that Snyder will wait until the last possible minute, and then announce that his agenda is complete, that he's had a lot of fun, and he's leaving to rejoin his private sector friends. He'll probably try to hide this decision from the far right (meaning, the Republican establishment) because he doesn't owe them anything and doesn't like them.  The only person who is likely to be tipped off in advance is Brian Calley, who has been a loyal soldier all along and has earned some gratitude.

If I'm right, the main public sign will be that Calley will act like a candidate for Governor, picking and choosing his public exposure, and being careful not to get caught on the wrong side of any issue that would be a deal-breaker in a Republican primary. Meanwhile, Snyder can undertake every possible meaningless gesture, like announcing campaign officials, holding fundraisers, dropping hints about long-term political agendas, and all that sort of nonsense.  Which is exactly what he appears to be doing.

We'll see.

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by: Grebner @ Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 21:37:11 PM UTC

Exactly

I'd say you're clairvoyant, but the spirits told me you don't believe in it.

Calley is staying squeaky clean. I'm trying to remember who his friends were when he was in the state house. Seems like the Teapots opposed him for LG, but it's been a while. He did mail a lot of odious flyers around my district when he was running for the house that were funded by the party and Right to Life, but that's business as usual out here in Clinton County.

I'm not that eartha - or that one either

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by: eartha651 @ Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 22:36:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two thoughts/questions

I was thinking about this while walking home from work, and ended up with two disorganized thoughts:

1) Whitmer took herself out of the running, and Democratic candidates haven't exactly been rushing to jump into the race. Is uncertainty about whether Snyder runs affecting of the decision-making timeline? Schauer/Peters/whoever are probably doing the same mental calculations as we are on Snyder's candidacy.

My inclination is to guess that it's not as much of a factor as, say, working out your relationship with the new leadership at the MDP or waiting to see if Carl Levin opens up a better gig in the Senate. But I have also never run a statewide campaign for governor and don't really know what you think about when considering one.

2) Can Calley effectively clear the primary field? If yes (minimal to no opposition), he's basically the incumbent but with none of the personal unpopularity that Snyder has, and is probably in a better position. If no, then this is a true open seat and Calley has to deal with the craziness of the GOP primary.

Here, my guess and hope would be that he'd face at least some significant challenger-- as LG thus far, he's been... in attendance? Unremarkable? I can't really remember him being in the news in a big way at any point this term. Not that we should expect much more than that from an LG, but the Republican Party in general right now seems more eager to embrace the loud Tea Party I'm-principled-look-I'll-prove-it-by-saying-something-incredibly-stupid kind of candidates. Calley doesn't strike me as that guy right now, so I imagine someone with a desperate need for attention will step up and make the primary interesting.

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by: Fitzy @ Wed Mar 06, 2013 at 23:35:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Calley and the field for governor in 2014

Bill Clinton ignored all the posturing and pronouncing, and just plain ran against George HW Bush, while the big shots convinced themselves that Bush was a shoo-in for the second term because of the ever-popular Gulf War.  The lesson I draw is that if you want to be governor, you should run for it, and not try to out-guess future events.  That goes for Schauer, Peters, Whitmer, Bernero, and a hundred people we've never heard of.

Calley has actually done a lot for Snyder, by serving as his point person on legislation.  Calley has credibility and friends in both houses, and he has put it on the line over and over to line up the votes for various Snyder initiatives.  And at the same time, he has NEVER cast a shadow over his boss, blurted out something inconvenient (e.g.: Biden on gay marriage) or looked like he was trying to advance himself.

I think there's no chance whatever that Calley will be able to clear the field, mainly because term limits have created strong pressure on Schuette, Cox, and some folks in the State Senate.  Once it becomes clear that Calley has folks out collecting the 15000 signatures he needs, he'll draw plenty of competition.  The LG position simply isn't powerful enough or visible enough to intimidate anybody - ask Jim Brickley, Dick Posthumus, or John Cherry.

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by: Grebner @ Thu Mar 07, 2013 at 00:40:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Snyder does bow out, it will be wild race on both sides

I could see Bolger, Richardville, Calley and then a few wild cards on the repub side.  Then on the Dem side, Whitmer, Schauer, maybe even Peters would take another look.  Interest in an open seat will be crazy...

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by: Jensen @ Thu Mar 07, 2013 at 13:44:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Schuette's running...

I was at a funeral yesterday in Gratiot County and Schuette was there for both funeral and wake. He's running hard, based on how much work he was doing in that room. Now, he was/is a long-time family friend of the deceased so his being there wasn't a surprise but it was pretty damn tacky to hear him talking fundraising, primary field candidates and such while memorializing a very dear friend. 

I was so damn disgusted, I left early. I'm a hardcord political person but counting votes while the body is still warm is beyond the pale.  

Do stupid people know they are stupid?

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by: JPowers155 @ Thu Mar 07, 2013 at 15:03:53 PM UTC

Yep

Yep, this guy has been running for governor since he was running for AG.  It's so obvious that I think it's going to backfire on him.  He's one of those classic hacks and hangers-on.  The best comparison of him I would make is Mike Pence down in Indiana, someone always looking for the next, better job.

I could see him winning a MI GOP primary, no problem, but even he has to realize he's way too conservative to win a governorship in Michigan.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Fri Mar 08, 2013 at 01:37:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]