Dear national media: Please do a better job talking about Levin's open seat

"Tiger Beat on the Potomac"

It's always good to find fans of Charlie Pierce in the blogosphere. Just don't guzzle too much antifreeze this weekend.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.

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by: Hy Dudgeon @ Sat Mar 09, 2013 at 18:23:27 PM UTC

Really

I won't even address the Jennifer Granholm speuclation and your comment, since when you seem to have an axe to grind, the only way to take it from you is your cold, dead hands (see: Granholm, Bernero...)

But, I've also been very annoyed at the national coverage of this, particularly of the dominant angle that seems to at least imply that this is going to be really competitive in the general.  Let's get real, as much as we legitimately whine about not being able to convert stuff in the state legislature, this is still very much a blue state at the federal level, so a Dem is favored by default.  Anything can happen, but whoever the Republican happens to be (or even whoever the Dem happens to be) will have to fight like hell to get this seat.  

I see all of this silly concern trolling about how this won't be a presidential year, as if that stopped Granholm from beating DeVos like he stole something from her, or Stabenow beating Mike Brouchard like a rented mule.  I know Republicans want to make this state Mississippi, and some Dems seem to fall into the trap of actually believing that's what we already are, but this is still a blue state.  

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 02:03:30 AM UTC

Axe to grind

They aren't axes to grind. They're reminders that there are people whose time in the limelight has come and gone. They've gotten a chance and come up wanting.

Jennifer Granholm turned out to be a terrible governor, and not just because she had to deal with an all-Republican Legislature, but because she didn't find her gumption to fight until after she left office and got a job advising other elected Democrats to do what she didn't do when she had the chance.

Bernero was a terrible gubernatorial candidate. After he lost his race, he went on to make a series of highly offensive comments. Also, I know a lot of people who live in Lansing and aren't wired into politics. To a person, they all think he does a lousy job as mayor.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 04:26:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bernero's Lansing

I live in Lansing. We have great recycling, mostly strong neighborhoods, an increasingly vibrant downtown and crime that's under control. We also have struggling neighborhoods and local politics that gets too infected by interest-group agendas. No, we're not George Hartwell's lively Grand Rapids yet, and may never be because we don't have that city's geographic advantages.  But we are not hopelessly mismanaged like Flint and Detroit or dead in the water. Lansing's a good place to live. That's the city I experience living here. Whether Virg Bernero deserves blame or credit is another matter, but until he became mayor we were on a decline.  No more.  

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by: LiberalBubba @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 15:01:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A couple things

Grand Rapids also has benefactors Devos and Van Andel to pay for all their big nice things.

Detroit and Flint aren't in their current state solely because of being "mismanaged." Irresponsible state government has also played a huge role in their current fiscal status.

And I wouldn't quite categorize crime as 'under control' in Lansing. I read about roughly one shooting per week it seems as of late. Anecdotal I know, but it's also starting to get some play as a local political issue here.

That being said, your overall point - Lansing's a good place to live - is correct :).

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by: MIChange @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 15:15:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not saying that Lansing is a bad place to live...

I'm saying that people who I know and who live in Lansing and who don't run in political circles (this would leave you out), all think Virg Bernero stinks as mayor.  I personally have no opinion on his tenure one way or the other, because it ain't my town.

He was also a lousy gubernatorial candidate.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 15:19:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The other day, a couple of people tweeted that:

1. Snyder just got re-elected, so with an open Senate seat,  Dems won't want to run against Snyder; but

2. It doesn't matter how popular Snyder is, because he is term-limited.

D'oh. I know more about Colorado politics than these guys knew about Michigan politics!

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 02:20:46 AM UTC

Potential Candidates for Levin's Seat

The media has passed up a rising star among the Democrats, Gretchen Whitmer.  Her political career could end in 2014 if she does not run for office,  She could launch a winning campaign for U.S. Senate.  Gary Peters and Virg Bernero could launch campaings that could lose the senate seat for Democrats. Virg was a disaster in his gubernatorial race.  That image that cost him could torpedo any bid for U.S. Senate.  Peters only had a plurality victory in 2010, very unimpressive.  In 2012,  a gerrymandered district delivered an impressive victory for Peters.  So, electroal vulnerabilities are likely for either Bernero or Peters.

Whitmer's salience on issues dear to Democratic hearts at the state level could help the Democrats in trying to unseat Snyder by spurring higher voter turnout.  Whitmer could feed the enthusiasm needed for Democrats in 2014.  Her being the nominee for AG would not have the same force as being the nominee for U.S. Senate.

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by: Jim Brazier @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 20:40:48 PM UTC

I disagree.

Having lived through it directly and analyzing the precinct-level data, the Gary Peters 2010 re-election victory was very, very impressive.

Look at the 2010 precinct results. I specifically would call your attention to Waterford Township precinct results. West Bloomfield Township. Sylvan Lake, Keego Harbor and so forth.

The level of Democratic candidate cratering was massive. 2010 was a Democratic massacre. Gary Peters bucked the trend by a substantial spread. While many others were imploding, he was surviving.  

Say what you will about other factors, but I respectfully challenge your assertion that his 2010 re-election was unimpressive.

Finally, Senator Gretchen Whitmer stated Friday that she will not be a candidate for Governor, Senator or Pope.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

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by: Michael McGuinness @ Sun Mar 10, 2013 at 23:36:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Okay

I just finished adding up the totals for Peters compared with Bernero in the old 9th (and also did a "what-if" for Obama '12 in the old district boundaries - not quite comparable because Royal Oak changed their precinct boundaries slightly between '10 and '12, but close enough).

Peters ran 13 points ahead of Bernero district-wide. There was quite a bit of variance in these results, from more than 17 points in Birmingham and Southfield Township (Beverly Hills/Bingham Farms/Franklin) and 15-16 points in Bloomfield Hills, Berkley, West Bloomfield, and Bloomfield Township down to around 10 points in Oakland Township and Auburn Hills and 3 points in Pontiac (they're smart enough never to vote for a Rep).

Peters ran 2.6 points behind Obama's '12 numbers. He ran ahead of Obama in Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Lake Angelus (yeah I know who cares), Southfield Township, and West Bloomfield, and was 4-5 points behind in Auburn Hills, Berkley, Farmington, Orion Township, and Sylvan Lake.

So yes, I'll agree with Michael's characterization of Peters' '10 win as pretty impressive. In 2010 he proved himself to be a hard and smart campaigner, as he was up with ads defining Raczkowski within days of the Republican primary. That's the kind of campaign we need in '14 no matter who the Reps nominate for the seat.

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by: Don K @ Tue Mar 12, 2013 at 16:49:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'll agree

Bernero was a lousy candidate in '10.

I'll argue, though, that Peters' plurality win in a pretty marginal district (a little to the right of the Michigan average) in the trainwreck of a year that was '10 was pretty impressive. One of these days I'll have to add up the top of the ticket totals for '10 and '12 in the old 9th, but I'll guess Peters had to run 10 or so points ahead of Bernero to pull off that plurality win. This was a district that voted 51/47 Bush/Gore in '00, 51/49 Bush/Kerry in '04, and 56/43 Obama/McCain in '08.

Now, having said that, I'll say that Peters is about as far right as I think a Dem candidate ought to be in Michigan. His DW-Nominate score over his first two terms in the House is (0.272) (comparables in the Michigan delegation are Carl Levin (0.458), Stabenow (0.362), Sander Levin (0.337), Dale Kildee (0.366), and Schauer (0.34)). I'd be much happier with a leftier Dem nominee who was still capable of winning the election, but I think Peters would be a formidable nominee who would be acceptably to the left (i.e., not another Evan Bayh or Ben Nelson).

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by: Don K @ Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 00:28:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Peters is not remotely another Bayh or Nelson.

But is he another Elizabeth Warren?  I don't know.  But we ought to be asking that question, and should aspire to that standard.  Warren's approach is not that radical.  Merely, reality-based.  "Follow the money."

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by: gregsullmich @ Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 03:46:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

if what your ask..

Is he charismatic, no his not, have meant him and talked to him, his like many democrats in this state, unfortunately very few Democrats in this state could be consider charismatic leaders that I have seen are.  

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by: Warhawkgundam @ Mon Mar 11, 2013 at 05:41:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Another Warren?

I doubt it. Nor will he be another Sanders, Franken, or Levin, based on his rating in the House (hey people can change under the right circumstances - it will be interesting to see how he votes now that he's representing a district that includes half of Detroit but at the same time is contemplating a statewide run). I totally agree we should try to get the leftmost electable candidate for this seat, which means evaluating all of the candidates who end up running and not just bowing to a Peters coronation.

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by: Don K @ Tue Mar 12, 2013 at 16:59:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]