Mike Rogers tops GOP Senate poll; seat labelled safe in Roll Call

by: Eric B.

Tue Mar 12, 2013 at 17:04:30 PM EDT

Angela Wittrock at MLive reports Mike Rogers tops potential GOP challengers for Carl Levin's Senate seat in an automated poll.

The poll, released by Okemos-based Murray Communications, Combat Data and Portable Insights, found that 31.1 percent of the 1,170 likely Republican primary voters polled preferred Rogers to six other candidates who’ve expressed interest in the seat.

Scott Romney, brother of Republican Presidential nominee Mitt Romney, garnered 29.7 percent of the vote.

“The poll is good news for U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers,” Christopher Mark of Portable Insights said in a statement. “His support among likely Republican primary voters extends beyond his congressional district and puts him at a solid starting point in this race.”

The bad news for Mike Rogers is that Stuart Rothenberg this morning rated the seat as safe for Democrats, citing past performance for Republicans in statewide federal elections (that would be president and U.S. Senate to you and me, sunshines), and the fact that Michigan in reality is a Democratic state with Republican state government only because of the 2010 wave election (and gerrymandered legislative districts). He also said that it's probable that prominent Republicans would get into the race only to raise their profiles before not actually running. Under that scenario, Mike Rogers, who has quite a lot of clout and exposure as a member of the Republican House majority, may just float his name out there for a few months before opting to return to the House and maybe even win the chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee.

If the political gods still worked according to Eric B. Strategy, that's what would happen, and the GOP would nominate Lil' Fella and clear him out of the House (which basically everyone else in both parties wants, anyway) for a Senate race he has no chance in winning. But, he'd raise Ron Paul money and force Democrats to spend a lot of money defending the seat, before Lil' Fella's aspirations are finally crushed under the reality that a figure as peculiar and extremist as him has exactly zero statewide appeal.

Update! ... The list of mostly irrelevant characters considering a Senate run grows. Now, our old, grammar-challenged friend Saul Anuzis is thinking of running. The man couldn't win an internal race against Goat Killer, but apparently thinks he can win a Senate seat in a blue state. From the comments:

Amash is someone with young ideas and fresh thoughts. He is understanding of the rights and privacy of the individual, he appeals to a wide spectrum of voters across party lines. Justin, who I have spoken with personally, is true to his word, he post each of his votes with explanation on FB for all to see and he responds to your thoughts as well. Most importantly...he adheres to his oath to the people he serves and is devoid of the corruptions that seem to plague politicians these days from both sides of the isle.

This is one of those things these people keep saying as if repeating it over and over will make it true. During the campaign, Lil' Fella kept telling everyone that he worked well with Democrats, despite the fact that his "work with Democrats" consisted entirely of co-sponsoring legislation with Dennis Kucinich. Aside from a few foreign policy issues related to foreign wars, Lil' Fella has exactly zero cross-party appeal, zero appeal to moderates and independents, and zero appeal to Establishment Republicans. If he gets in, he's done in Congress even if he loses the Senate primary because the GOP will just run someone in his Congressional District primary who will just turn around and use Steve Pestka's playbook from last year and win the district (and who'd probably beat him in a straight-up fight). Then, guys like this would have a three-month sad.