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A Look Ahead to the 2014 Election in Michigan

by: jimmich

Mon Mar 18, 2013 at 18:25:31 PM EDT


(From the diaries! - promoted by Eric B.)

     There are a bit less than twenty months remaining until  the 2014 elections, and some major changes to the poltical picture in Michigan, both  actual and potential, are or may be happening in our fair state.  And it seems to me that the Michigan Democratic Party, which sustained a serious thrashing in the off-year election in 2010, would do well to be working on getting their best candidates in place for the next go-around.  The Democrats need nine more seats in the State Senate and five in the House to take control.  Twelve Democratic members of the State House will be term-limited, as are three Democratic and four Republican state senators.  Carl Levin is already on record with his intention to retire from the Senate at the end of his current term, and three of our current US House legislators are at an age where they may follow suit, leaving possibilities for many changes.
jimmich :: A Look Ahead to the 2014 Election in Michigan

     First, a look at our US Congressional delegation.  Gary Peters, Mike Rogers, Justin Amash, and possibly Dave Camp have already expressed interest in running for Levin's seat in the Senate next year.  Kerry Bentivolio is not a strong Republican candidate, and the likelihood of his being primaried by his party is substantial.  Sandy Levin, John Conyers, and John Dingell are all octogenarians, and may or may not decide to sign up for another term.  Possible scenarios for potential open seats include:

1) MI-3  I hope that Steve Pestka will be willing to challenge for this seat again; his chances should be even better if Juatin Amash vies for the Senate nomination and leaves it open.

2) MI-8  If Mike Rogers leaves this seat open to run for the US Senate, I would hope that Dianne Byrum could be persuaded to try again.  She came within 111 votes of beating him twelve years ago, and maybe could be tempted by an open seat.  Unfortunately, I don't think that term-limited state senator Gretchen Whitmer has any interest in going to Washington; hopefully she will run against Bill Schuette for Attorney General.

3) MI-9  If Sandy Levin retires, it is my hope that the gifted Michigan Congresswoman Ellen Cogen Lipton (HD-27) will be interested in running for his seat.  She is term-limited.

4) MI-11  I hope that term-limited State Senator Glenn Anderson (SD-6) will challenge Kerry Bentivolio (or whoever primaries him) for this seat.  It leans a bit Republican, but I really believe that Anderson can win here.

5) MI-12  If John Dingell retires (probably not likely with his current seemingly good state of health) his wife Debbie Dingell seems to me to be the best candidate to keep this seat.  She has been mentlioned as a candidate for Carl Levin's seat, but this seems more logical to me.

6) MI-13  If John Conyers retires, we have two strong candidates for his seat in ex-Rep. Hansen Clarke and term-limited state senator Tupac Hunter.

7) MI-14  Gary Peters seems likely to me to win the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate; but, as mentioned above, Hansen Clarke and Tupac Hunter are two strong and capable Democratic replacements.

     Potential opportunities for Democrats in the Michigan Senate include:

1) SD-5  Tupac Hunter is term-limited but there are several good term-limited Democrats in the Michigan House, one of whom should take his place.  Rashida Tlaib is an especially competent and able legislator who deserves a seat in the Michigan Senate.

2) SD-6  Glenn Anderson is term-limited.  Hopefully, either of western Wayne County legislators Douglas Geiss (HD-12) or Dian Slavens (HD-21), both of whom are also term-limited, will run for this seat.  It would be especially pleasant if one of these latter candidates would, alternatlively, challenge Patrick Colbeck for his seat in SD-7.

3) SD-10  I would love to see term-limited Harold Haugh (HD-22) from southern Macomb County challenge Tory Rocca for this seat.

4) SD-13  If Sandy Levin opts for another term, I would hope that Ellen Lipton will run for term-limited Republican John Pappageorge's seat in southeastern Oakland County.  I think she would have the inside track here.

5 SD-15  Vicki Barnett (HD-37), also term-limited from the State House next year, has also been expressing some interest in Carl Levin's seat in the Senate.  To my mind, a more logical move for her would be to challenge Mike Kowall for this southwestern Oakland County seat.  Albeit a red-leaning seat, it is winnable by a good candidate.

6) SD-19  Kate Segal (HD-62) is also term-limited from the House next year and would be a marvelous candidate to challenge Mike Nofs for this Battle Creek-area seat.

7) SD-23 Andy Schor (HD-68) would seem to be the most logical candidate to step into Gretchen Whitmer's blue-leaning Lansing-area seat.  Although he is relatively new to the House, he is a bright and capable legislator.

8) SD-27  Woodrow Stanley (HD-34), also term-limited, seems to be the most likely candidate for this Flint-area seat, left vacant when John Gleason decamped to take a position with Genessee County.

9) SD-31  Term-limited Terry Brown (HD-84) of Pigeon is really the logical candidate to challenge Mike Green for this northern Thumb-area seat.  He is one of the less-progressive of the Democratic House Caucus, so fits this area well.

     Does anyone know whether any of these people are considered these options to move up?  Is there any action or discussion regarding any of  the races I have not touched upon?  The Michigan Democratic Party has a new and apparently fired-up chairman in Lon Johnson, and I hope and trust that he is touching base with these people and getting his ducks in order; but beyond that, I think that everyone who cares about getting good Democrats elected next year and taking back the U.S. House of Representatives and the Michigan House and Senate next year should call, email, or drop a note to these people and encourage them to run.  We have some excellent candidates to support, and some big shoes to fill.  It is not too early to get started, folks.

 

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For SD-13 (4.00 / 1)
State Representative Ellen Cogen Lipton does not live in that district, she lives in Senate District 14 -- which may be open if current State Senator Vincent Gregory seeks Rep. Gary Peters' likely open congressional seat.

For SD-15, again, State Representative Vicki Barnett does not live in that district; she lives in Senate District 14 as well (see above re: open senate seat prospects). Barnett has been considering a run for Governor, not U.S. Senate.

For SD-27 Woodrow Stanley just lost the special election primary to fellow State Representative Jim Ananich. I anticipate we'll be seeing Ananich for the next few terms as a result.

If Sander Levin retires, then all bets are off. Batten down the hatches because here comes the deluge. However, the deluge won't be so massive if Andy Levin (his son) seeks the seat, as many expect. Otherwise, get ready for the names Jacobs, Meisner, Townsend, Woodward, Freeman, Switalski, Roberts, Wojno and who knows who else.

Glenn Anderson sought the 13th congressional seat last year. His Westland-Garden City-Redford stomping ground is all within 13.... no longer in the 11th, alas.

As I had mentioned in a previous comment, the Democratic primary for an open Congressional District 14 could be a barnburner. Definite possibilities include Vincent Gregory, Rudy Hobbs, Brenda Lawrence, Vicki Barnett, Lisa Brown, Tim Greimel, even Gilda Jacobs or Jim Townsend.... and that is just the Oakland County stretch.

Great idea on getting the ball rolling. Any and every effort to engage this conversation constructively is great.

Great Lakes, Great Times.


Richardville term-limited (0.00 / 0)
If I recall correctly, Richardville is out in 2014. What does our farm team look like in that senate district?

Not bad (4.00 / 2)
Kathy Angerer or Doug Spade are excellent candidates.

Communications Guru The Conservative Media http://liberalmedianot.blogspot.com

[ Parent ]
CD 4 (0.00 / 0)
Interesting that Dave Camp is considering a run for US Senate. I'm glad his treatment for cancer has been successful, but does he realize he's actually will have to campaign for the Senate? This will be new for him (sarcasm intended). Unfortunately, MDP has not developed a farm team to run against him in the 4th. So what Democrat would run in 2014 in the 4th; Toni Sessoms perhaps?

No way... (0.00 / 0)
As much as I would absolutely, positively love to see my great friend Toni kick ass in the 4th, I am almost certain she wouldn't do it. She is very content in her career and fired up about helping local folks behind the scenes.

We really ought to keep trying to get Cigarette Lawsuit Guy to run.  


[ Parent ]
MI-11 (0.00 / 0)
The national Democratic Party blew off this district even though it was a presidential year, the incumbent had resigned in disgrace, and the Republicans put up a candidate who carried enough baggage to fill a U-Haul truck.

That might tend to discourage credible challengers from filing next year.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.


The 11th District (0.00 / 0)
has consistently been a missed opportunity over the years, in my opinion. We had often been told it was partly due to McCotter being decent in the eyes of the UAW and friendly with Congressman Dingell.  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Gettelfinger sat on his hands in 2010 (0.00 / 0)
The Detroit News ran a story about Gettelfinger's reluctance to support a Democratic challenger to McCotter; and, even though challenger Natalie Mosher was running unopposed in the Democratic primary, the UAW declined to endorse her (they finally did in the general).

I suspect that McCotter had thrown the UAW just enough crumbs (not opposing prevailing-wage laws, siding with the Big Three on climate and energy legislation) to get its leader to stand down from a challenge. Good for Gettelfinger and the gerontocracy that runs the UAW, I guess, but bad for the Democratic Party in MI-11. This was one of the major reasons why I decided not to run for precinct delegate in 2012 after serving for six years.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.


[ Parent ]
n/t (0.00 / 0)
He also supported the auto bailout. As long as McCotter was in that seat, UAW had little motivation to replace him -- potentially destabilizing things which could lead to a more conservative candidate down the road.  

[ Parent ]
Then the destabilizing happened anyway... (0.00 / 0)
...and the "more conservative candidate" they supposedly feared is now incumbent U.S. Rep. Kerry Bentivolio.

So what does the UAW do for 2014?

Back a Democrat who (based on sad precedent and gerrymandering) will likely lose, or quietly throw in with L. Brooks and the GOP "establishment" to primary Bentivolio -- even if that means David Trott gets the seat?

Is this a chance for Lon Johnson to stand up for a strong Democratic challenger in MI-11, even if it means defying his supposed benefactors?

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
The idea of David Trott (4.00 / 1)
and the United Auto Workers aligning on many, if any, labor issues seems far-fetched!

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Being a "self-funder" absolves a lot of sins (0.00 / 0)
Not that Trott would have to spend a lot of the money he's made throwing working families out of their homes through his law firm facade.

The wealthy Oakland County GOP Establishment folk that L. Brooks and "Bobby" Schostak cater to would line up to write checks for the man who can beat Krazy Kerry.

Still hoping we can field a credible Democrat who can challenge Bentivolio OR Trott...but if we can't then we're back to my scenario where the UAW sits on its hands in the 11th.

In old-school D&D alignment terms, by doing nothing they're choosing Lawful Evil over Chaotic Evil. Both Evil, but at least Trott isn't looking to leave a smoking ruin as his legacy.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
Yeah (0.00 / 0)
I think what made the 2012 win by Krazy Kerry particularly painful is that David Curson actually beat him in the special election in the old district.  The new district is marginally more red, but not so red that it shouldn't have been competitive.

[ Parent ]
Fun fact: (0.00 / 0)
Vicki Barnett actually lives in the 11th CD.

[ Parent ]
How? (0.00 / 0)
She lived in Farmington Hills and was Mayor of Farmington Hills. That city is entirely within the new 14th Congressional District.

The city of Farmington is entirely within the new 11th. She doesn't live there, unless she moved very recently.

Either way, that does not change her eligibility to run for any congressional seat in Michigan of her choosing.

Great Lakes, Great Times.


[ Parent ]
Vicki Barnett was at the first meeting of the 11th District Democratic Party this past Saturday (0.00 / 0)
I don't think anyone asked her about running for Congress -- but then, it's not like I was shadowing her the whole time.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
.. (0.00 / 0)
The Gleason seat is going to be filled by Jim Ananich, after last week's special election.

Tupac Hunter for Congress? .......   :(

Hansen Clarke for Congress? .......   :(


In which district do you vote? (0.00 / 0)
n/t

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
In (0.00 / 0)
A Lansing-area district. You?

[ Parent ]
CD-14. I'm in Pontiac. (0.00 / 0)
And we boast one of the most blatantly gerrymandered contortions in the nation. But I'm cool with being in the same district as the eastern side of Springwells Street in southwest Detroit.

In the 1990s Pontiac and most of northern Oakland County was conjoined with Flint and Genesee County in Dale Kildee's old ninth district. An I-75 corridor, labor-heavy power duo!

In the last round of redistricting that same District 9 became solely contained with Oakland County. Well, you know the story from there.

Pontiac Power!

Great Lakes, Great Times.


[ Parent ]
THE Most Gerrymandered (0.00 / 0)
Governor Gerry would be proud.

[ Parent ]
Which District are you in, LH? (0.00 / 0)
n/t

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
None Right Now (0.00 / 0)
Back in DC.

[ Parent ]
! (0.00 / 0)
You're with us in spirit!

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Love Reading Your Comments (0.00 / 0)
You are the best informed political person I've read.
Maybe start your own blog?

[ Parent ]
I have a Pontiac-themed blog. (0.00 / 0)
I feel like I can make the most difference and fill a needed niche locally, so pontiacpride.com and involvement in my city is more than enough for me.

I used to have a broader political blog in the earlier days of the internets and used to write from Michigan for the Daily Kos Political State Report (a spin-off that didn't have long-lasting success), but when I began working on and running state legislative campaigns in the mid-2000s they wanted me to nix the blog action.

Back to your compliment, however -- thank you very much. Very, very kind of you to write.

Great Lakes, Great Times.


[ Parent ]
Well, you're always welcome to blog here... (0.00 / 0)
[ Parent ]
P.S. (4.00 / 1)
And clearly I'm getting my fill of political news and opinion dialogue right here at Michigan Liberal lately. Cheers!

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Ah (0.00 / 0)
Yes, completely familiar with that map, as well as 13. Despite not living there, I certainly have a lot of interest in having the best congressfolks possible. Peters is one of them, obviously!  

[ Parent ]
CDs 8 & 12 (0.00 / 0)
If Mike Rogers goes for the Levin Senate seat, I believe it's unlikely Dianne Byrum will run. A name I've heard is for CD8 Dem primary is Mitch Irwin.

Any mention of CD12 Dem primary should include Senator Rebekah Warren as well as Debbie Dingell.  


Barb Byrum... (0.00 / 0)
wouldn't have to vacate her Ingham countywide office to seek the congressional post in 2014, nor would any of the others (if they are all on the presidential cycle like we are in Oakland -- I know Wayne County staggers its Executive seat) or any Lansing municipal officeholders...

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Oh, please, no (0.00 / 0)
Barb is a good Democrat for her mostly rural district, but she is far too conservative even for MI-8, and considerably more liberal than her mother.  We can be do better than her here in MI-8.

[ Parent ]
Byrum (0.00 / 0)
Yeah, because being pro-choice, pro-woman, pro-union, pro-environment and pro-education is too conservative for MI-08. Perhaps you should run instead -- of course, you can't put "MiddleGrandGuy" on the ballot, so carry on with the armchair analysis.

[ Parent ]
In fairness (0.00 / 0)
There are plenty of absolutely acceptable reasons not to use one's real name on this blog. Using a handle does not disqualify one from having an opinion, nor expressing it.

[ Parent ]
No, but... (0.00 / 0)
...it certainly diminishes the person's opinion.

[ Parent ]
Back in my newspaper days, I used to blog under the name "Captain Salty" (4.00 / 1)
I try to judge someone's argument instead of the person, and we've had staffers and legislators and other people who for one reason or another are forced to adopt false names. I allow that to generally fall under the Publius Rule, which is that people who use fake names can have something very substantial to offer the conversation. And, to be pretty frank, most of the people who comment here and use a fake name ... I figure out who they are in real life and when I see their fake name I just put their real face to it.

It doesn't always work out clean, because the first person I ever banned from here, I knew his identity all along and still banned him for being the biggest Internet dick I've ever seen anywhere (his account name wasn't his real name). Generally speaking, though, I'm a fan of transparency.

Are we clear now?

Among the Trees


[ Parent ]
Let me add... (0.00 / 0)
Ironically, I was going to flesh out that comment a bit, but I was chatting with someone named Thomas Morgan about ducks while writing and was distracted, so let me add this addendum:

I prefer users who use their real name. I really do. Internet mischief almost never starts with people who identify themselves outright. It almost always starts with someone who uses a fake name. I can understand why someone would use a fake name, and after awhile those people can become valued members of the community. MiddleGrandGuy, for instance, I've had occasionally bitter disputes with whoever that is, but he's put in his time commenting here that I'm not prone to see an argument with him be the result of genuine trolling. But, really, I'd rather people use their real names as much as possible. Not only does it help maintain comity here, but if you know who someone is and what their education/work experience is, it helps you better understand their comment.

Among the Trees


[ Parent ]
"helzapoppn" is my Internet brand for going on 17 years... (0.00 / 0)
...and for most of those years it got more Google hits than my real name.

I consider them interchangeable.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
Wait, what? (4.00 / 3)
I am "too conservative" and "considerably more liberal than" my mother...both in the same sentence?

[ Parent ]
Who (4.00 / 1)
is Mitch Irwin, again? Sorry for my ignorance and/or forgetfulness.

Good call on Warren. I think she'd be great replacing Dingell.

For CD 8, I heard someone mention Mark Meadows recently. I agree Dianne likely won't do it, but what about Barb? Does Virg have interest? I've heard that the only reason he hasn't run thus far is because he was roomies or friends or both with Rogers in college. Are there any Oakland Co. Dems that could run successfully in CD 8?


[ Parent ]
Re: your Oakland 8th question (0.00 / 0)
No. Not very likely.

The highest-ranking elected official is Holly Township Supervisor Dale Smith (recently returned to the office after a four-year hiatus).

State Board of Education Member Casandra Ulbrich probably lives in the Rochester Hills portion of the district (I haven't acquainted myself thoroughly enough with that municipality's new congressional bifurcation) but her statewide seat should be up in 2014.

2006 nominee Jim Marcinkowski presumably still lives in Orion Township. I doubt he plans on running again after 8 years of not having run again.

North Oakland Democratic Club Chair Phil Reid (also an 8th District Vice Chair) should have more insight on that front, though.


Great Lakes, Great Times.


[ Parent ]
To clarify: (0.00 / 0)
And by "that front" I mean if there are any Oakland 8th congressional candidate prospects / interested parties.


Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Mitch Irwin (0.00 / 0)
Former Blanchard budget director, former Granholm ag director, former state lawmaker and father of current state Rep. Jeff Irwin.

Either of the Byrums would be great candidates for CD8 but from what I hear, so far, they aren't interested.  


[ Parent ]
CD 8 is more Republican (4.00 / 1)
Than it was when Dianne Byrum came so close.  Not sure what the split is now but it was gerrymandered after Rogers won the first time.

[ Parent ]
That terrain would be well worth (0.00 / 0)
further analysis and in-depth review if anyone has the time and ability :)

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
CD 8 is much more Republ;ican now (4.00 / 1)
The district has been redrawn twice since the 2000 Byrum-Rogers match.  It now has more voters in Oakland County than in Ingham County.  The Oakland and Livingston County portions are very, very Republican and they more than drown out Democratic Ingham County.  As they were intended to do.

A Democrat with a solid base in the Oakland County portion of the district would have the best chance of making a competitive race.  I don't think such a person exists, however.  


[ Parent ]
Old 8th vs new 8th (0.00 / 0)
The old 8th had Ingham, less populated Livingston, part of Shiawassee, and parts of rural/suburban Washtenaw (including Scio Twp) and suburban Genesee County (including Flint Twp), along with the Holly area in Oakland.

The Washtenaw, Genesee, and Shiawassee portions are gone (Clinton was added and later dropped) and the district expanded in North Oakland and has most of the Rochester Hills/Rochester area now.

The big strength of Mike Rogers is that he not only runs ahead of the ticket in Livingston County, but is popular for a Republican in Ingham County outside of East Lansing. He occasionally wins it, and usually comes close.

Could the dems take the seat? They could in a real bad year for us like 2006 or 2008 or with candidate matchups. A candidate who gets 65% or so in Ingham and holds down our winning margins in either North Oakland or Livingston. Debbie Stabenow did that to us in the 90's. In 1998, Sue Munsell was held to 53% in Livingston County because Right to Life refused to support her.



"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP


[ Parent ]
1990s Stabenow question: (0.00 / 0)
Thank you for sharing your insight. I was curious: What was then-Congresswoman Stabenow's issue wheelhouse when representing Livingston County in the U.S. House? Did she delve into Agriculture issues then, as she does now due to her committee chairmanship?

You mention of course Susan Grimes Munsell's difficulty with a base organization. Certainly voters might've then sat on their hands or skipped that part of the ballot, but Stabenow presumably didn't win convert votes from that RTL decision. Were there any other factors at play that also allowed Stabenow to make issue or favorability inroads in your county during those four years (which is partially what sparked my Agriculture question)?

Great Lakes, Great Times.


[ Parent ]
I think she just campaigned hard in the area (4.00 / 1)
Stabenow often gets about 43% here (three times broke that number). That's good countywide for a democrat in a contested race. I think she has some family in the county (at least two with the same last name who are also likely dems), but the thing I really noticed is that she actually campaigned here in 98. I'm not even sure it was issues. Women candidates historically do well in the county (Munsell, Scranton, Denby, most judges), but that was negated in 98.

She did real well for some reason in Tyrone Twp (near Fenton - I believe winning it surprisingly) and over by the Pinckney area (not surprisingly) that has been historically friendly to local democrats at times. There's more of a union influence in the Pinckney area (MEA), so that could be part of it. I'm not sure one way or the other about agricultural influence, but Stabenow comes across as "Grandma non-offensive Populist" to a lot of people. I don't mean that as an attack. It's a good campaign style.

In 98, there was heavy local infighting. A couple of wings, partly personality and party ideology clashed at that time. I wasn't involved in that period since I was an independent (sometimes R/sometimes L) in those days. I noticed it more with stories and some of the letters to the editor by RTL supporters who said both candidates were the same.

If Mike Rogers does run (which has not been decided) and I'm recruiting candidates, I want someone that will get mid-term voters to get to the polls to vote for that candidate. Who has that strong appeal to less frequent voters. That's the best candidate. I don't expect to be lucky and see Frank McAlpine run again for the other side.  

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the insight. (0.00 / 0)
In 1998 she also ran stronger than other Democrats in the Oakland County corner of Holly and Rose Townships under those then-district lines.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Considering the top of the ticket that year was Geoff Feiger... (0.00 / 0)
...that Debbie Stabenow won at all should put her '98 campaign near the top of her hit parade.

Similar to the success Gary Peters had in overcoming Virg Bernero's poor performance in 2010 to defeat a determined and well-funded challenge from "Rocky" Raczkowski.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
Any race for the 8th CD has to come through it's base (0.00 / 0)
and that means Lansing, and if there is a hair of a chance that seat could change, all roads would most likely have to go through Virg Bernero.

[ Parent ]
Washington (0.00 / 0)
The only way Virg wants to go to Washington is as president.  There is no way he'd subject himself to a tough race to become one among 400-something congress members.  He knows as well as anyone else that he does not play well with others.  He was itching for some kind of exectuive office even during upon his entrance into the legislature.  To be the congressman from the 8th district would be a waste of his ambition and talents.

[ Parent ]
Sander Levin (0.00 / 0)
Sander has already been quoted in the news as saying that he is running for re-election.

CD-10 (0.00 / 0)
It is sad that a Dem can't be competitive in the 10th CD. In the part where I live, we were represented by David Bonior for a long time until the district was gerrymandered to cut him out (Mt. Clemens) and add Candice Miller (Harrison Twp.) in, while making it a safe Republican electorate. I wasn't involved politically at the time of the 2001 reapportionment, but this had to have caused outrage among Dems at the time.

So it looks like I am stuck with Candice Miller for as long as she wants to stay and with a Republican successor beyond that. The composition of the district has also allowed Miller to go much further to the right than I thought she was prior to the emergence of the tea party and the onset of ODS.

"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool." - Shakespeare  


State offices aren't any better (0.00 / 0)
SD-25 (Pavlov) and HD-81 (Lauwers) also appear to be firmly in the hands of Republicans.  

"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool." - Shakespeare  


[ Parent ]
Pardon a silly question, but why well I'd love to see... (4.00 / 3)
...Gretchen Whitmer run for Governor (or Senate, though that certainly seems to be Peters territory), she's made it VERY, VERY clear that she has absolutely no intention of running for either state-wide seat.

Furthermore, the reason she's given--in no uncertain terms--for not running for either state-wide seat is a desire to spend time with her kids over the next few years.

This being the case, why on earth would she run for either Attorney General (state-wide) or Congress (which would require her to spend over half her life in D.C.)?

Again, I'd be happy to see her run for any of these offices, but if "more time with my family" really is her sincere reason, I can't see it, and if she were to change her mind after being so adamant about not, she'd take a lot of flak for doing so, I would think.

Then again, a week or two is an eternity in politics, and how many politicians have ignored a previous "I'll only serve X terms" pledge in the past?


Well said. (0.00 / 0)
n/t

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
On the other hand... (0.00 / 0)
Having thought about it a bit more, Attorney General might still make sense after all. She lives in the Lansing area, so the job itself wouldn't be any more of a shlep than her current State Senate position (unlike Congress/Senate), so that just leaves the campaign itself.

Yes, Attorney General is a state-wide position, but I presume that it wouldn't require quite as much travelling around the state as a Gubernatorial bid would (or would it?). So perhaps that's still a possibility for her. We'll find out soon enough; I just hope she runs for something else after her Senate term ends...


[ Parent ]
I don't see her running for anything for a few years (0.00 / 0)
If she says it's family related, I think she means it.  And an Attorney General race would involve a lot of effort also.

[ Parent ]
SD-23: Barb Byrum (0.00 / 0)
I would imagine that Barb Byrum is the most likely candidate to succeed Whitmer, if she so chooses.

N/T (4.00 / 2)
Curtis Hertel Jr. is far more likely.

[ Parent ]
And (0.00 / 0)
And would be FAR more representative of the district.

I've always said I don't much mind her for the district she served and as a county-wide official (so long as it's the one she's currently in), but this county is far more liberal than she is.  I haven't much minded her floating by on her name, but if she thinks she's going any higher than this, she has another thing coming.  I know that most people only know her from the floor during the whole Vaginagate affair, and if that's all you know of her, you'd think she's some kind of progressive, but she was actually one of the more conservative Democrats in the legislature.


[ Parent ]
Conservative (2.75 / 4)
Again, pro-choice, pro-labor, pro-education, pro-women's rights makes someone "conservative." Ever look at the MIRS "most liberal/conservative" rankings? You have no clue what you're talking about, MrAnonymousGuy.  

[ Parent ]
Fair (0.00 / 1)
Stop trolling because he disagrees with somebody you admire.

[ Parent ]
He's not trolling (4.00 / 3)
He is disagreeing, listing reasons he disagrees, and then being snarky.  That is not what a troll does, as our Uber Lord Eric has explained recently.

[ Parent ]
Trolling? (4.00 / 2)
You should probably recheck your definition of "troll." Heck, I even use my actual, factual name in my posts.

Moreover, he isn't "disagreeing" -- he's making proclamations that simply aren't true, or at most have little basis in fact. It could be he has an ax to grind; it's hard to know, since he's anonymous.

Finally, I actually know Barb Byrum and her record. Full disclosure: I worked for Dianne for many years, and am good friends with Barb. Am I biased? Of course. But I'm also more qualified to comment that random anonymous people on the interwebs.


[ Parent ]
It is (4.00 / 1)
well within anyone's right to comment without using their own/real name, for a variety of reasons. Self-righteousness is a bad look, by the way.

[ Parent ]
MichLib editorial policy (4.00 / 1)
"Our preference is for people who participate on Michlib to use their real names. A comment or a diary post with a real person's name next to it carries far more weight than one without. We do realize though that there may those who need to hide their names to guard against employer retaliation, political embarrassment, etc. As a general guideline, stand by your posts publicly. By doing so, you give yourself (and your post) much more credibility."

[ Parent ]
It is well within your rights... (0.00 / 0)
I consider it a very good thing indeed to run a website where the comments are generally civil enough that I don't need to consider changing our policy to require people to use their real names. In the past, I've suggested to the editor for which I write a column that he ought to consider requiring real names because anonymity there is badly abused. I should add, however, that I very much appreciate those people who choose to use their real names.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
Tom (4.00 / 1)
This has got to be at least the second run-in we've had on this site.  I've complimented you in the past; I've told you I once voted for you and used to read you in the City Pulse.  So, on my end of things, this isn't personal.  But, whenever I so much as state my disagreement with a candidate you've worked for, you go ballistic.  You've really got to stop this.  People have differences of opinion; if my opinion is so far off the mark as not to be based in any kind of reality, you can let me know what you think without all of the personal venom.  You also better get used to folks not using their real name.  You wouldn't know me, anyway, but that's beside the point.

For the record, I'm a huge fan of Dianne.  In fact, I've been disappointed that she hasn't taken on Mike Rogers.  I'm simply not as big a fan of Barb, who, for this city boy, represents a more rural, conservative aspect of the Democratic Party, even if it's just in style than substance.

I really hope you heed this advice, because, while this hasn't been personal on my end, you're trying your damndest to make it personal, and it's beginning to work my nerve.


[ Parent ]
Barb is very representative (0.00 / 0)
of the district.  However she just got elected to County Clerk - think she may stay there for a while.  

[ Parent ]
Might be her district (0.00 / 0)
The two times she was up for reelection, hers was one of the names floated of Democrats the Republicans thought they could unseat.

Back in the early days of blogs, she was a big supporter of this site and I've met her a few times based strictly on that. I can also tell you that she was a regular reader of this site and may or may not (I can neither confirm nor deny) created an account name and interacted with people.

If she did that, it would have been under one of those fake names that people are talking about today.

Among the Trees


[ Parent ]
Very ture.... (4.00 / 1)
I did have a "fake name" on this blog.  I am using my name. I enjoy reading your blog...even the comments by people who have clearly never met me.

[ Parent ]
Come to think of it, you're probably right. (0.00 / 0)
He has done a good job of keeping his name out there with the mortgage crisis issue.  And of course, that is a long standing last name for that area.

[ Parent ]
Michigan Senate (4.00 / 3)
I am not running for the Michigan State Senate in 2014.  I am supporting Curtis Hertel, Jr.

[ Parent ]
You missed SD-20 in your list, which has been redistricted (4.00 / 1)
to include all of Kalamazoo County, and only Kalamazoo County. Which makes it as close to a pure toss-up as you can get.

Rep. Sean McCann (D, 60th) is widely expected to face Rep. Margaret O'Brien (R, 61st) for this seat.


Great. Can you handicap the prospects for us? (0.00 / 0)
Maybe even in a diary of its own, considering there is likely a hefty bit of possible content.  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Hansen Clarke, (0.00 / 0)
I just saw this tweet from him: "HansenClarke I thank U.S. Rep. Karen Bass for reintroducing my Student Loan Forgiveness Act-- as part of her new bill-- The Student Loan Fairness Act."

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Hansen has surfaced.... (0.00 / 0)
He is prospecting through the electeds requesting support for another run at the 14th...

[ Parent ]
Hansen (0.00 / 0)
Should sit down. There are much better prospects for the 14th.

[ Parent ]
Curious (0.00 / 0)
Who are they?

[ Parent ]
My opinion (0.00 / 0)
OC Clerk Lisa Brown from Oakland County and Sen. Bert Johnson from Wayne County were two names mentioned by somebody else (I think JPowers) on another thread, as being the two best from either county, and I agree with that assessment.

That being said, I think Vicki Barnett & Andy Meisner are great public servants from O.C. Would love to see Meisner go for Exec though. And, if nobody else steps up, I'll support Vicki for Gov! I respect her policy mind even if she isn't a showy politician.

Back to the 14th, I've always thought Hansen's heart is in the right place, but have never seen him do anything constructive policy-wise. The cutting up the credit cards stunt on the House floor left me underwhelmed, too. That and offering outlandish programs that cost billions of dollars to bailout Detroit which could never actually get passed. These tactics are used to drum up the base. I get it. But knowing that they will never pass, and drumming up the base, only leads to real disappointment for real people, and I can't support that. So I'm firmly against another Hansen Clarke run and was glad Gary Peters won.

I'm familiar with all the other names being mentioned for the 14th. I respect nearly all of them. Just haven't seen them latch onto an issue and really advocate and get things done the way I've seen Lisa Brown and Bert Johnson do in the Legislature. I include both names because I imagine there will be at least one strong candidate from each county. I think that's exactly what we need coming from our Democratic congressional representatives.  


[ Parent ]
Lisa Brown just won a hard-fought race for OC Clerk (4.00 / 1)
Unless she's actually made it known she's interested in MI-14, I would presume she'd rather sit this next cycle out -- and let's hope she uses her office to help ensure fairer elections in Oakland County.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]

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