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Poll: Dingell leads pack in the 12th

by: Eric B.

Fri Feb 28, 2014 at 10:13:55 AM EST

IMP/Revsix/Main Street Strategies.

Dingell had 51.1% in an automated survey of 813 likely Democratic primary voters taken on February 26 and 27. The poll is the first released since Dingell's husband, 30-term U.S. Rep. John Dingell (D-Dearborn), announced his retirement this week.

The runner-up in the poll was state Sen. Rebekah Warren (D-Ann Arbor), who had 15.7%. The three other candidates tested were virtually tied. State Sen. Hoon-Yung Hopgood (D-Taylor) earned 4.4% and state Rep. Jeff Irwin (D-Ann Arbor) had 3.5% and state Rep. Doug Geiss (D-Taylor) had 2.3%. The undecided vote was at 23%.

The poll also tested a head-to-head matchup between Dingell and Warren, the top two contenders. Dingell won 55.9% and Warren took 21.6%, with 22.5% undecided.

I sent a message to Joe D. at Main Street Strategies asking if Dingell is a client. I'll let y'all know what I learn.

Update! ... The answer is no. Debbie is not a client of Main Street Strategies.

Eric B. :: Poll: Dingell leads pack in the 12th
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In Susan Demas' column today
she references that there are four women serving out of 38 total seats in the State Senate, including Rebekah Warren.

If Rebekah Warren and Gretchen Whitmer are replaced with men, that would leave two with Emmons (R) and Schuitmaker (R).

In Oakland County, the odds point to a woman (Barnett or Lipton) replacing Vincent Gregory, so that would take us back to three.

Although with varying degrees of challenging races, Democratic women are running for the Colbeck seat, the Pappageorge open seat, the Hune seat, the Robertson seat and the Hansen seat.

Furthermore, there is a primary challenge to Senator Smith from Representative Tlaib and Republican Representative O'Brien is seeking the new Kalamazoo seat.

Are there other prospective female state senate candidates looming on the horizon?

Great Lakes, Great Times.

What I expected
I didn't know they would poll this, but these numbers fit exactly what I'd assume at the beginning of the race, that Debbie would be above 50% and Warren would pull in the 20's.  This is still a district very much based in the east side of itself than the west, and name recognition's going to make it even harder for the Ann Arbor part of this district.  

Warren has absolutely nothing to lose by doing this, though, and everything to gain.  This will be a great way for her to build an email list and feel out congressional politics for future runs.

Hopgood, Irwin, Geiss
I'd be surprised if all three of them ran - heck, I'd be surprised if any of them ran. I've got good impressions of all of them, but I'm not sure any of them would run.

And keep in mind that Warren hasn't officially announced - there's no guarantee that she'll jump in.

That's the only problem I have with polling done so soon after a seat opens up - it's really anyone's guess who will actually run (or, for that matter, if anyone else actually runs besides Dingell).

On the plus side, we now know that about half of voters already support her - and that it's hers to lose (which most of us figured already).

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

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