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Out on the weekend

by: Eric B.

Fri Mar 14, 2014 at 17:56:43 PM EDT

Do you know what I fucking hate? I fucking hate those people who get dressed up as a leprachaun around this time of year, affect a terrible Irish accent, and try to sell you the same shit they try to sell you the rest of the year. If we were to move legislation authorizing violence against one group of people, I would support it if it involved fake leprachauns. They are history's greatest monsters.

Meanwhile, this is your open thread. Use it, don't abuse it, and don't refuse it, sunshines, for tomorrow the Internet may cease to be.

Eric B. :: Out on the weekend
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Out on the weekend | 37 comments
Are their any new rumblings about Dem picks in the other statewide races?  Is Barb Byrum still considered the frontrunner for SoS?  What about people throwing their names in for the open Supreme Court races?  Seems like Mark Totten is truding along.  Any news on who's up and who's down in the Lt. Gov. nomination?

Grumblings more than rumblings...
as far as the statewide slate goes.  Oddly, after being invisible for over a year I think, I have run into Hansen Clarke 3 times in the last week.  The last time, he was making a very passionate introduction of Mark Schauer at the Birmingham/Bloomfield Dem Club meeting.  I do hear much concern that there be diversity on the slate, I would like to see that, I would also like to see a woman on the slate.  I have heard Lisa Brown suggested as LG, Totten and Dillard for AG and Howley and Byrum for SoS.  These are rock solid total speculation and rumor.  I would like to see the slate settle faster than it is, but I think finding a good slate is more important than finding a slate fast. #saveusgretchenwhitmer

[ Parent ]

This.  For the love of god, run for something, dammit! lol  My fervent wish is that she gets the Lt. Gov. pick, but she has been adament she's not running for anything.

I was completely turned off by Hansen Clarke's implosion during the Dem primary against Peters.  It's funny, because I thought Peters running in MI-14 was a douchebag move, so I was 100% with Clarke...until he appeared to mentally unravel.  He can never recover from how he ran that campaign in its last few months, in my mind.  There is just not something right, there, and it hurts me to say it having been a HUGE fan of Clarke.

Also, while I'd like to see some diversity on the ticket, this is a year in which we just need to plain win by any means necessary.  We honestly can't take another four years of Snyder.  I wouldn't care if it meant an all-male, all-white ticket to be frank, even though that's not how it's going to turn out.  

There always seems to be this concern that you need a minority somewhere on the ticket to turnout Detroit, but I think that's a belief and rule Dems would be well to give up on because it's false.  And I say that as a black person, myself.  The truth is that Detroit is just tired of voting, in general, particularly given, first, the Kilpatrick scandal, and then the ridiculous EM law which has sort of been the nail in the coffin to voter enthusiasm.  

Quite frankly, I think you turn out Detroit by doing a few simple things: spending time there (i.e. Mike Duggan and his dozens and dozens of house visits), and then reminding them every day until November exactly who and what took away the powers of their elected government.  Even those who may want Orr to succeed - and even as a vociferous critic of the law and how it's been handled I'm one of them if for no other reason than the sake of Detroit - realize acutely that there were other ways to go about.

Even more practically, though, I don't think you need a black face to sell this election to Detroiters, because, well, unlike year's past, there is not some universally beloved black politician, this cycle.  The Kilpatricks, again, really killed the idea of centralized black political power in Detroit.  When they collapsed, everything fragmented and has not consolidated since.  It's why someone like Bing slipped in, and why Mike was had no trouble dispatching Benny.

[ Parent ]
Seconding this:
There always seems to be this concern that you need a minority somewhere on the ticket to turnout Detroit, but I think that's a belief and rule Dems would be well to give up on because it's false.

I agree with you.

Being white, it concerns me that we still have very few governors or U.S. Senators who aren't white. That needs to change, and it would be great to see Michigan help change that.

But here's the thing about having blacks on the ticket in gubernatorial years: Since 1990, none of them have won.

And as I mentioned downthread, the characteristics of a running mate really have next to no effect on how the ticket does - people's votes depend on their views of the gubernatorial candidates, not of the running mates.

I don't know what will motivate blacks (in Detroit, Grand Rapids, or anywhere else) to vote - but I do know that having a black person on the ticket just for diversity's sake hasn't helped us.

As for Whitmer, I said this elsewhere, but I'll say it again: If a marathon campaign of 18+ months wasn't for her, then maybe a sprint of 10-12 weeks would be better.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
Howley and Dillard?
Would that be Kevin Howley (i.e. Brooks Patterson's 2012 opponent)? Is Jocelyn Benson sticking to her Wayne State gig and not running for anything?

And who is Dillard? (At this point, I don't see anyone besides Totten getting the AG nod.)

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
Kevin Howley ran for Oakland County Exec in 2012 and would be legit candidate for SoS, can raise, works hard, knows his stuff, smart guy. It seems like if Jocelyn was going to get in this, she would have by now, but maybe the being Dean thing is taking up all her time.

Godfrey Dillard is an attorney from Detroit, he is/was looking at the 14th, he is now being pitched as AG possibility, his name recognition is probably pretty limited to Detroit.  I know Mark Totten has probably driven two sets of tires off his car running around the state promoting his candidacy for AG, working very hard, and I think he has been well received as far as I know. If Scotty has not even heard of Dillard, that says something about who is actually working for that slot.

[ Parent ]
At the State Central meeting on March 1,
Lon did not bring up the possibility of an Endorsement Convention. It was brought up as a question from the floor, and he said that there was no point in having an Endorsement Convention without having contested races to vote on (not an exact quote).

I wondered when I heard him say that about Dillard, who had announced some weeks previously. But perhaps he feels that holding a Convention for that one race is not worthwhile, and we need to wait for things to firm up otherwise -- a position I would agree with.

Mark Totten has been lining up endorsements, and a delay in the Endorsement Convention does not hurt him at all.  

[ Parent ]
Cogen and Barnett
What if anything do you Michigander's hear as far as one of these two stars getting the LG nod so that we don't lose one of them in a primary? I've long felt that Vicki would be a great option for LG. Any other thoughts?

Barnett would be good
Also, depending on how the congressional race turns out, Schauer couldn't go wrong with Rudy Hobbs or Bert Johnson as a running mate.

As I recall, Whitmer said the big reason she wouldn't run for governor is because she didn't want to be far from her kids for so long. Maybe a two- to three-month campaign for Lieutenant Governor might be more feasible for her.

Each would be (1) an excellent addition to the ticket this year, (2) a valuable member of the Schauer administration next year, and (3) a great governor in their own right in 2023.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
We Have To Win
Winning the Governor's Seat isn't an option for us in November, it is a must. And with Snyder holding the power of incumbency and traditional Dem mid-term drop-off, I think Schauer needs to be as low-risk as possible with his LG selection along with being strategic.

That, in my opinion, would eliminate Johnson, and would favor Barnett or Cogan. As fairly low-key Jewish women from leaning-blue Oakland County, they would help drive gender and a swingish county our way. Johnson, on the other hand, has long ago issues that would detract from the issues that need to be addressed.  

[ Parent ]
We had a woman from Oakland County for LG in 2010
A great woman, at that - passionate, smart, and of high integrity.

And we got about 40% of the vote.

Four years earlier, Republicans nominated a woman from Oakland County. They got 42% of the vote.

Few people (if any) base their vote on the second half of the ticket. Sure, we officially vote for Governor and Lieutenant Governor as a ticket, but those votes are driven almost exclusively by the top half of the ticket - not by the bottom half. If people want a Governor Schauer, they'll vote for him, even if it means Lieutenant Governor Eric Baerren.

That said, I agree with you that Schauer shouldn't take too much of a gamble with the LG pick - and to be honest, I'm not aware of what issues Bert Johnson might have. But in my experience, if a Democratic candidate has no real negatives, things will be made up about them. (See: Swiftboating and birth certificates).

As it is, I doubt that such factors as the hometown, faith, or gender of a gubernatorial nominee weigh heavily on many voters' minds; those characteristics of a nominee for Lieutenant Governor probably weigh even less. Would a Bernero-Smith or Bernero-Kildee ticket have done much better or worse than Bernero-Lawrence? What about DeVos-Hoogendyk or DeVos-Garcia instead of DeVos-Johnson?*

I'm not seeing how picking one person to be his running mate will net Schauer many more votes than picking another person - and I'd be shocked if Schauer somehow won or lost the election because of his running mate.

*In order, I'm referring to Alma Wheeler Smith, Dan Kildee, Jack Hoogendyk, and Valde Garcia.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
I agree with you 100%.
But I think you're missing the last 25% of the story. That is, an LG can be useful to either 1. motivate high-information base voters to participate to a greater extent in the campaign, or 2. signal to donors you're the real deal and leverage that for more cash.

You're absolutely right though. There will be very few voters (if I had to guess? Less than 1%) that will cast their ballot based on LG choice. I hate to say it but no one cares.  

[ Parent ]
Completely agree with 1 and 2
A large majority of voters that are going to vote for Schauer will vote for him regardless of who the LG is. But I think both of your points are spot on.

Schauer is not a "sexy" candidate to unseat Snyder. There are many people who will either vote for the Dem regardless or are turned off by Snyder. But for people that don't fit either category, a high profile LG could turn people out to vote (especially someone like Whitmer who's publicity as a result of the rape insurance passage has gone up). Those are the people who are asked to speak to national media and have a strong issue to run on. Schauer is a solid candidate but I don't see him getting that kind of attention.

Also, I do think a candidate from a certain geographic region could turn out the vote more. While it may not be a huge amount, Democrats need all the extra votes they can get. However, I don't see a person who is a possibility that would turn out voters like that. (I still believe Whitmer will run as LG, and even if they lose this year it will def. help her if she has any kind of aspiration for 2018).  

[ Parent ]
And the other races
Any idea who might be running for any of the other statewide offices?

Supreme Court incumbents are Michael Cavanaugh (D), who, due to age, can't run again; Brian Zahra (R); and David Viviano (R), who would be running for a two-year term.

All of the incumbents on the State Board of Education are Democrats (largely because they were elected in the wonderfully Democratic year of 2006):

State Board of Education: Casandra Ulbrich, Daniel Varner

U-M Regent: Julia Darlow, Kathy White

MSU Trustee: Faylene Owen, George Perles

WSU Trustee: Debbie Dingell, Eugene Driker

Obviously Debbie Dingell can't run for re-election and at the same time run for Congress.

There is usually a lot of turnover associated with these offices - in 2012, only two of eight incumbents on education boards were nominated for re-election (MSU Trustees Ferguson and Foster). Perhaps that's bound to happen when running involves an eight-year commitment.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

*WSU Governor, that is (nt)

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
It has been pretty quiet
I've heard Richard Bernstein's name for one of the State Supreme Court slots and that is about it.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Sad to say --
because I have been involved in walking / calling / recruiting folks to help with Supreme Court campaigns for the last three cycles -- it appears that part of the lingering aftermath of the Hathaway disaster is that the powers that be on our side have given up on winning a SC majority, even as a long-term project.

Diane Hathaway is the best gift we ever gave to the corporatist Right in Michigan. They should give her a pension.

Having said that, there are a few folks considering a run other than Bernstein. But I won't mention names before they announce.  

[ Parent ]
I'm running
I'm throwing my hat into the ring for Board of Ed, just because I want my name to be the one measuring Dem base.

"In 2014, the Dem base was __% as evidenced by Brad O'Donnell's Board of Ed run."  

[ Parent ]
Think of the possible slogans!
Oh Yes I'm For O'Donnell!

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
This is a great open thread.
Discussion, information, speculation, stimulation!  How exciting.

It is my understanding that Hansen Clarke has been teaching at the University of Detroit-Mercy Law School and he has a law degree.  

So, presumably, that means he is a prospective candidate for the Lieutenant Governor nomination... or for Attorney General and / or State Supreme Court.  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Hansen Clarke
I was still in Michigan during the political rise of Hansen Clarke, and saw him as a real part of the future of our party in Michigan. Unfortunately, as he rose he seemed to flame out, and I am not sure that I see him as someone who is a future leader of the party.  

[ Parent ]
That is up for debate.
I'm not ready to stick a fork in him.

Granted, I am supporting someone else for our 14th congressional district and am not eager to see him take another stab at that seat... but I still see him as a credible leader with a lot to offer.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Hansen was at the 12th District meeting I am told.  

[ Parent ]
I heard that, too.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
He'd have to move, then, because he doesn't live anywhere near the district, unless he moved and I didn't hear about it.

[ Parent ]
Not sure what his aspirations are, but I don't think he could make a legitimate run for AG this late in the game. I also would find it hard to see him elected to the Supreme Court since he has really only practiced law for about 8 years, the rest of the time being spent in office.

I think he could be a last ditch LG candidate if no one else wanted it, or maybe he is waiting until Conyers retires to run for Congress again. I don't see it being any longer than 2-4 years from now.

[ Parent ]
I interpret that
To be a sign of possible statewide testing of the waters, not a bid for Congress in the 12th (or 13th or 14th) -- he is attending various congressional district and club meetings throughout metro Detroit.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Any sense of whether
there will be other candidates in Michigan's 12th District congressional primary, apart from Debbie Dingell?  Do we anticipate she will be the only Democrat to file?

Great Lakes, Great Times.

I anticipate she'll be the only candidate to file.
Other than Some Dude(s).  

[ Parent ]
I doubt that even a 'Some Dude' will run
This is going to be a lot like Dan Kildee's election in 2012 - a cleared field for a relative of the retiring incumbent. Not that that's good or bad, that's just what seems to be happening.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
It's about time there was a clean-up, here.  We shouldn't have to consistently put up with down-rating when it is a certain someone's ONLY perogative to troll.

Who is doing this?
Usually my weekends are kid free, but not this one. So, I didn't actually come here for most of it because I had other things to attend to.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
Out on the weekend | 37 comments

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