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Mike Rogers not seeking re-election

by: Eric B.

Fri Mar 28, 2014 at 07:00:32 AM EDT

This is, well, somewhat significant.

DETROIT (AP) - Seven-term Republican Congressman Mike Rogers of Michigan says he won't seek re-election.

The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee announced his plans on Friday morning during an interview on Detroit radio station WJR-AM. He says he'll serve out the end of his term and plans to start a national radio program.

It's too God damn early and I've had too little coffee to speculate on who might run, but it'll probably be fun watching people line up for this seat. The obvious angle to this is that Rogers is term limited out of chairing the committee he currently chairs and wanted to go out on a high note.

And, as always, cue the article about how Rogers retiring hurts Michigan's clout in Congress.

Eric B. :: Mike Rogers not seeking re-election
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Another $1 million congressional race
Add CD 8 to this year's list which already includes CD1, CD3 (GOP primary), CD7, CD11 and CD14 (Dem primary).  When was the last time six Michigan congressional districts were in play?  

If Gretchen Whitmer wants to run in CD8 I say let's clear the field.  Dems needs someone with name ID who can raise money.  It's a district that went for Romney by 4 points and is rated +2R by Cook but could be won by the Dems under the right circumstances that include Republicans nominating someone like Joe Hune from the far right.  

This is definitely a unique confluence of events.

Each year sees its handful in certain portions of the state, but this is getting downright surreal.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
"wanted to go out on a high note"
Also translated to: wanted to go out when his stock on the K Street resale market was still high.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

I'm rooting for a female nominee.
That's my two cents.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

From MIRS on potential candidates:
MIRSnews.com @MIRSnews
Senate Minority Leader @gretchenwhitmer says there "is no way I'm making a run" in now-open 8th Congressional District.
21 minutes ago

MIRSnews.com @MIRSnews
On Democratic side, Rep. @singhsam94 "not ruling anything out" in 8th Congressional. @BarbByrum also possibility. http://t.co/kkadMJ1QjL
25 minutes ago

MIRSnews.com @MIRSnews
Republican State Sen. @joehune "definitely interested" in 8th Congressional seat is "looking at a run."
27 minutes ago

Great Lakes, Great Times.

This is the field, as shaping up...
Right now, Barb Byrum looks like the strongest Dem leaning towards getting in. Everyone assumed Joe Hune is getting in, too. Whitmer is out.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
I hope to god...
...they run someone like Hune.  I hope they run the craziest MF they can find out of Livingston County. lol

[ Parent ]
I'll see your craziest MF in Livingston County
and raise you one Tom McMillin, of Rochester Hills.

I would not be surprised to see McMillin bolt from the state senate race and sprint off to Washington, D.C.  He has run for Congress multiple times before.

Perhaps part of the reason Mike Rogers waited so long to share the news is that he was allowing his brother to acquire an ample head start.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
I feel like it will be a tough race to win if his brother is the Republican candidate. However, if someone like Hune or McMillan get the nomination I think the Dems could steal it away.

The national party will pour money to this race if that happens, since this has a much higher possibility of switching than some of these other "swing" districts in Michigan.

There's Byrum, Schor, and Singh all in this district. They have all shown they can raise money and run solid campaigns. I would be happy with any of them being the nominee, as long as they don't kill each other in the primary.

My question though is about Whitmer? Does she really have no interest in running for any office? It seems odd to me that in possibly the biggest election year Michigan has seen in a long time, the support behind her for running for Gov., and her Congressional seat opening up after 14 years, she has no interest in any of it.


[ Parent ]
Crazier Than McMillan
Out there as this may be, with Rogers going from politics to radio, what about that Tea Party broadcaster running for the seat...Frank Beckmann perhaps

[ Parent ]
IF Dems really want this one, they can get it.  Our bench is deeper here than just about any other competitive race in the state.

This news shocked me, it really did.  This is a possible game-changer that could drive turnout in other races if done right.

We've got Byrum, we've got Whitmer, we've got Singh...the GOP better be careful who they put up.  VERY careful, because this is legitimate toss-up territory if we get a Lansing Dem to run.

I don't think so.
We may be able to make this competitive, by putting up a strong candidate against a weak Republican, but I can't quite see us winning. The Republican territory in northern Oakland is just too much, when added to Livingston.  Just my opinion.

[ Parent ]
very long shot
I the very best Democratic year (2008) the base was 49.3%, in the 2nd best Democratic year (2012) it was 47.2%.  In general, the district is about 8% below the statewide Democratic base.  

[ Parent ]
WADR - If a 47-49% base district is a long shot
I'd hate to hear what you think a competitive seat looks like. Rogers clearly outperformed his base (due in large part to weak opponents and Dem disinterest) - with this now being an open seat it will be a real race and given the correct candidate a true toss up.

[ Parent ]
The problem is that it's NOT a 47% base.
People fall into a habit of calculating a measure, and they forget that sometimes their calculation becomes dependent on circumstances.

In the present case, everybody is calculating baseline by taking the most recent four elections and averaging them.  That would usually work reasonably well, since it includes two presidential and two non-presidential elections, and is spread out over the previous eight years.

But - DUH! - it doesn't give an accurate answer when three of the last four even-year elections have been Democratic blow-outs at the top of the ticket.  2006, 2008, 2012 - they all produced strong Dem. baselines - over 55% in each case.   2010 was a Republican blow-out, with a baseline statewide around 47%.  So you average them all together, and you get a statewide baseline of 53% Dem, which is way too optimistic.  I'm guessing this year's number (which I calculate as the average Dem. share of the two--party vote cast for the eight bottom-of-ticket education posts) will be about 49%.  That's four points worse than the simple-minded average of the past four elections.

Because all four of the most recent elections have been blow-outs at the baseline level, we've lost sight of the idea that most years in Michigan are pretty close to 50%. Years like 1990, 1996, 1998, 2002, and 2004 deserve some place in our assumnptions, even if they didn't happen within the past 8 years.

The likely 2014 baseline in CD8 is around 44%, which means we'll only have a shot if everything breaks very well for us.  Our candidate has to be much better than their candidate, we have to out-spend them, out-campaign them, out-politic them.  And even then, we'd probably come up short.

The Republicans drew this district precisely to protect it from falling easily into our hands.  They did a pretty good job of it.

[ Parent ]
I don't think we have seen the last of Rogers
It is, of course, dangerous to predict politics years ahead but I don't think this is the end of Rogers' Michigan political career.  I would now expect to see him run against Stabenow in 2018.

Rogers get a few years now with a combination of high visibility and no politically dangerous floor votes.  He gets to maintain his credentials as an expert on foreign affairs, terrorism or what have you.  He doesn't have to say anything about taxes, spending, equal rights or anything else that could be made into a television ad.

As for this year, the district was drawn exactly to be tantalizingly in reach without a danger that a strong Republican could lose it in a Republican year.  We should be prepared but not have too much hope.  In 2012 only 36% of the vote in the district came from Ingham County.  64% came from Livingston and from the parts of Oakland that do not include Pontiac or Southfield or Farmington Hills.

One Step Further
Much speculation as to why Rogers has left a safe perch in Congress for a radio gig.

My theory goes further than Debbie's seat in '18. I think he is looking at the presidency in 2020.

Few in Washington have modest egos in either party, and given the dreadful bench, why wouldn't a 50 year old neo-con type with several terms in Congress not think that he could legitimately run for President?

This gig gives him the opportunity to raise his profile with their base, and will position him to run against Hillary in her re-election bid.

[ Parent ]
Don't count out Graham Davis or Joe DiSano.

Graham doesn't have the money, but he's got the people
[ Parent ]
He's got some some updating to do on his
Facebook page.

(For those who don't know, it's just a joke page that he set up.)


Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
Why is Rogers really leaving the House?
Rogers is youngish, secure in his seat, and certainly could have expected to stay in Congress until he felt like leaving.  So why does he feel like leaving NOW?

The "radio personality" sounds like a place-holder to me.  It sounds more plausible than "I wanted to spend more time with my family", but only marginally so.  

Here's my guess:  he's got a cushy deal lined with with somebody who really "appreciated" his efforts, but the deal is actually TOO cushy to allow a simple transition.  So Mike will wander away into the dark, and after six months, when we've more or less forgotten him, he'll suddenly find himself on some K Street payroll.

Mike always seemed hard-headed about money, and trading a safe Congressional seat for the chance to become a radio personality - without having demonstrated any talent for it - would not have been hard-headed.

The guy is only 50; he's leaving after four years; and he's been a committee chair just four years. By comparison, Sen. Levin (Armed Services) and Rep. Conyers (Judiciary) have been the top Democrats on their committees longer than Rogers has been in Congress.

Whatever the case may be, this is just... strange.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
Follow the money.
The trail may not yet be evident, but as you say, give it a while. There's always a pot of gold at the end of the public service rainbow, especially for Republicans. I foresee a cushy think tank position in Mister Rodgers' future.

[ Parent ]
Bill Rogers & Mike Bouchard decline to run
Well this is a pretty BFD:

Mike Rogers' brother, state Rep. Bill Rogers of Brighton, said he's been flattered by the calls and emails encouraging him to run, but he quickly put any speculation to rest: "Not a chance."

Bill Rogers, who is term-limited in Lansing, said he's not interested the demanding lifestyle of a congressman and is proud the family name will still be represented in Washington with his brother's radio show.


Another name floated is Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard. The former U.S. Senate candidate lives outside the district in Birmingham - which is permissible in congressional races - but has broad name recognition in Oakland. Friday afternoon, Bouchard said he'll pass: "That's not something that is in the cards for me right now," he told The News.

So, if there was any chance of neutralizing name recognition in a general against, say, a Barb Byrum, that seems to not be in the cards for the GOP.  Simply ticking off "Rogers" on a ballot would have made this a measurably heavier lift.  And Mike sitting out takes away a man who ran state-wide, which is always advantage.

Apparently, Saul Anuzis is looking at this, bless his heart.  So, at least as far as prominent GOP elected officials are concerned, this narrows it down to Krazy Tom McMillin and (ever-so-slightly less) Krazy Joe Hune, right?  Apparently, McMillin is trailing Hune in their state senate race, so I wonder if they'll make a deal where one will run for Congress and one for the state senate, and how the state GOP would take that?

Outside of that, a wealthy businessman or community leader out of Oakland County most likely will have to take on whoever the Dems end up putting up, and preferably from Oakland or Livingston.

Hune and McMillin
I thought Hune and McMillin were in different Senate districts - with McMillin running against Knollenberg, Raczkowski, and one or two others for that open seat?

Either way, if one or more of them live in the 8th CD, it might be worth it to switch to that race.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
Not sure
Not sure, I'd just read in some paper that they were running against each other, so maybe they got it wrong.

[ Parent ]
Joe's in the 22nd. McMillin in the 13th
They are far apart from each other. Joe's in Livingston County finishing his first term in the State Senate. McMillin is currently a state rep in Rochester Hills battling for a several way primary to replace John Pappageorge.

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP

[ Parent ]

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