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Dave Camp retiring

by: Eric B.

Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 18:15:49 PM EDT

I'm at work, so this will be brief. Dave Camp, according to things, is retiring. No, Democrats have no shot at winning this seat. They couldn't even find a guy to run against him, so the guy who was looking for candidates threw his hat into the ring.

Speculate in comments. 

Eric B. :: Dave Camp retiring
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Dave Camp retiring | 19 comments
Yay, speculation.
If I had much money, I'd put some one it being either a Stamas (former Sen. Tony or termed-out Rep. Jim) or an Emmons (former Sen. Emmons or current Sen. Judy).

Romney won the district by eight points (he only won the 8th by three). Also, unlike the 8th, we don't really have much of a Democratic bench.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

This is essentially going to be decided in the Dow...errr...GOP primary.  Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Just got through reading thew News' take on this, and it's completely predictable.  It's trolling over the loss of clout for Michigan, which also has the silly role of assuming that the GOP will be in power forever in the House.  Good grief.  Camp was already term-limited out of his chairmanship to begin with, whether he left or stayed in Congress.

Also, I saw Barcia's name thrown in as a possible Democratic candidate.  Does he even live in the district?  Are there any Dems to the south that may not live in the district but may be close to it that could at least get to the baseline turnout of this district?  It seems to me that even to go through the legtimate motions of competing we'd have to have a carpetbagger to come in an run a legit campaign.  I'm thinking some conservadem out of Bay or Saginaw counties, maybe.

[ Parent ]
None of Bay County is in the district
Most of these names that get mentioned are just cases of the papers throwing crap and hope that it sticks. I got a real chuckle out of the MI-08 names mentioned from those not even in or near the district. Craig DeRoche? Mike Bouchard? Not all of Oakland County is alike.

There's two democrats that would concern me. Joel Sheltrown, and less so Dale Sheltrown. Joel won Missaukee County when he was state rep. Missaukee's GOP percentage is higher than Livingston County.

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

Opinions are my own and not that of LCRP

[ Parent ]
My entire point was that someone from outside the district would probably have to run on the Dem side to make this even look like a race.  My question was specifically about candidates who don't currently live in the district.

[ Parent ]
This isn't ever going to be a race
The problem is that it does not appear to me that there is real cohesive structure to the 4th District Democrats. There are just people who are doing things.

Like I said in the post, the Democrat who is currently running, John Barker, was a couple of weeks ago out begging people on Facebook to run. Having gotten no takers, he's running. His experience winning elections was being elected supervisor of the charter township of Union in 2008.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
I do apologize for not being clear enough.  I'm not looking for someone who could make this race competitive in a normal political cycle.  That's never going to happen in a district drawn as nicely for the GOP as this one.  All I'm looking for is someone who could possibly win in the case the other side unexpectedly implodes (i.e. MI-11 in 2012).  It seems to me that there is not a Democratic core organized enough within the district to even do this, though not knowing the district, I could be way off base.  

I guess all I'm aksing is if there is someone just outside the boundaries district with enough actual organizing prowess - because there certainly isn't any campaign of any legitimate size in the district - to actually run a legitimate (if even inevitably losing) campaign?  I was just throwing out some blueish areas near the southeastern edge of this district that perhaps could "loan" MI-04 someone who could go through the motions of putting on a show, instead of having to settle for a "Some Dude" candidate within the district.

Shorter: Is there a Democrat in the state who could make it so that we get more than 35% of the vote in an open race in MI-04?  Really, that's all I'm asking for.  Like MI-08, there is no reason outside of incumbency that these districts should be voting as red as they do, and I'm just hoping that in open races we can at least get to a partisan baseline.

[ Parent ]
Even if the "token" Dem loses by 20, it still helps the rest of the ballot
For the statewide races, a vote in the 4th District counts just as much as one in the 14th.

If the potential Democrat does nothing more than fire up the base, it would help Mark Schauer, Gary Peters, Mark Totten and our SoS and Supreme Court candidates.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
I've always wondered if,
come the day he retired, would he be replaced by a nutjob? As Eric has pointed out from time to time, at least Dave is more or less sane, and also civil.  Perhaps the district is old enough and nutty enough to go all in on another Benishek?  I'm not so sure Dow Chemical can control everything.

For your guys' sake...
...I sure hope they find another bland, inoffensive suit to head up the place.  Because nutjobs are entertaining for about two seconds, and then it gets very old very quickly.

[ Parent ]
I don't see this happening
I don't entirely disagree with the idea that the district might go full-blown nutjob, because it was drawn up with the idea that no crazy person was going to beat Dave Camp. And, Dave Camp is basically as inoffensive and sane a Republican as you're apt to find these days. The electeds in the Republican Party are now no longer sane and inoffensive as a rule, so I'm pretty sure that any of the electeds will do a pretty good job at being better organized than any of the many, many king hell loons who might get in.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
"MIRSnews.com @MIRSnews
Sen. John Moolenaar appears poised to run for 4th Congressional. Rep. Jim Stamas for Moolenaar's state senate seat."  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

He would have been my guess
Aside from Jim Stamas, who I don't think ever got beyond the House, I can't think of anyone credible for this seat.

Someone suggested that Kevin Cotter might also be interested. He probably is. I keep hearing that he wants to be House Speaker next term, however.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
In addition to running for Board of Ed, I'm running for the 4th.
As much as I love John Barker, I truly feel we need a Democrat who will be slightly less crushed in the general. I believe I am that candidate.

Seeing the same name for multiple positions on a ballot is very endearing to voters, I assume.  

Stick with Supreme Court
Lots of people with Irish names on the Court - McCormack, Kelly, Cavanagh, and there used to be a Boyle and a Corrigan.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
And a

and another Kavanagh

and Brennan

and Fitzgerald

and Flannigan

and McAlvay

and McGrath

and Comstock Riley

... Maybe Cooley was also Irish? Not able to find the answer, offhand.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Due to the fact I have no knowledge of the law whatsoever,
I will run for Supreme Court as well. I'll fit in nicely.  

[ Parent ]
"Knowledge of the law" hasn't stopped Bill Schuette
Though I'm sure we all wish it had.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
Dave Camp retiring | 19 comments

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