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Dan Kildee endorses Rudy Hobbs

by: Eric B.

Thu May 08, 2014 at 11:52:54 AM EDT

From Ye Olde Inbox.

Detroit, MI – Rep. Rudy Hobbs (D-Southfield) announced he has earned the support of another member of Michigan’s Democratic Congressional delegation, U.S. Representative Dan Kildee (D-Flint).

“Rudy has proven himself to be an energetic, charismatic, and capable leader who commands vision and foresight,” said Representative Kildee. “With some of Michigan’s most veteran legislators retiring from Congress after this year, Rudy is exactly the type of individual we need to pass the torch of leadership to.”

At some point, I'm going to put together a list of candidates running in this race and who is endorsing who and keep a running tally.

Update! ... This got Tweeted at me by Brenda Lawrence's Twitter account. 

Past Congressman & House Democratic Whip David Bonior endorses Brenda Lawrence for Congress.

Some day, when things are a bit less hectic 'round these parts, I'm going to come up with the rules for an exciting endorsement-related game called Endorsement Stratego.

Eric B. :: Dan Kildee endorses Rudy Hobbs
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Brenda Lawrence endorsed by David Bonior
Also shared via the internets today.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Endorsement Stratego. I'd rather partake in a game of Endorsement Risk, seeing as how Risk is by far my favorite board game.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Endorsement Monopoly
Continuing on the theme of board games, it looks like Hobbs still has a "monopoly" on big-name endorsements.

Lawrence's website does mention some endorsements - including many from community leaders, mayors, and others. But of the "heavy hitters" who have weighed in so far, most have gone with Hobbs (EMILY's List and Bonior being the notable exceptions).

Still no word from the "Big Three" unions - the UAW, Teamsters, and the MEA. The MEA endorsement will be one to watch, seeing as how Hobbs is a teacher and Lawrence was on a school board.

And if more big names continue to back Hobbs, this primary could prove to be a key test of whether having such strong institutional backing can help a less experienced candidate win.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

Hobbs mentioned at tonights Oak Park Debate that he has received the MEA endorsement.  

[ Parent ]
Let us not forget that Hansen Clarke still exists.
Plus more than a few errant John Conyers write-in votes that will spill into this district.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
UAW will go with Hobbs or nobody
No way would Kildee have gone with Hobbs and potentially against a different UAW endorsed candidate. I would bet Eric's next pay check that he ran those trap lines before deciding.  

Hard to know.
I anticipate that Sander Levin lobbying his colleague may have been the likelier scenario. But that is presumption on my part.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
has also endorsed Hobbs.


I would find it surprising if the MEA went with a separate candidate than the National Education Association.

Just more reasons why I think Hobbs is going to pull this out.

Time will tell.
I anticipate Hobbs will arrive in third place on August 5th.  

Here is my current prediction: 1. Lawrence 2. Clarke 3. Hobbs 4. Burgess. 5. John Conyers (vis-a-vis uncounted write-ins).

Hansen Clarke is a known entity in the Detroit and Wayne County portion of this district. Based upon the tenor of the comments on this post, I take it he is being discounted entirely. In two months (absentee ballots will arrive in no time) and with small funds to spend on voter contact, I don't expect Rudy Hobbs' campaign to be able to overcome the years of outreach and recognition by Clarke in that terrain.

This isn't a state representative primary, of which Hobbs has run in twice (the 2010 race being the seriously contested one, although he did lose in one of his municipalities in his 2012 re-election against an unknown female challenger). Consolidating some of the endorsements does not a winning margin make.

Depending on the resources that are brought to bear, obviously some endorsements can boost a candidate's performance substantially. However, I have made the assessment that those endorsements are on paper only and not arriving with a large check or boots on the ground. Time will tell whether or not that is the case.

If they do come with campaign cash and canvassers, then it will boost his margin -- but not to the point that he could overtake the frontrunner or the former Congressman.  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
I predict
1.Hobbs 2.Lawrence 3.Clarke

Clarke burn too many bridges in 2012, his DIA. he will have no money and no volunteers.

Lawrence has name rec, but all of it is bad name rec. Point in case her own polling show the Minority Leader Tim G. beating her in a hypothetical match up. If a poll was done in a month any ideas put form now base on old polling will get thrown out very quickly.

Hobbs is locking all the major endorsement, not only the political ones, but a large majority of the Detroit Clergy, his going to have boots on the ground.

Point in case did you go to the Parade last sunday? Hobbs had what looks like 10-15 Volunteers there to walk, Brenda had 4, She is burning out.  

[ Parent ]
Well then.
I don't disagree that the Clarke campaign will be hard-pressed for organization and contributions, but you sound pretty confident that he is bringing nothing to the race.

If Hansen Clarke burned bridges, then it would have been mainly leading up to last cycle's primary. So Hansen Clarke has also lost the support of his majority 2012 vote totals in Detroit and Wayne County represent between now and then? Thousands of voters no longer bear any likelihood to vote for him, when they had the choice between Peters, Clarke, Lawrence, Waters et al two years ago? That election night party must've been a pretty packed joint, if all of those voters are so miffed that he stood them up.

No, I was not at the Cinco de Mayo Parade May 4. Were you? Or are you basing this off of comparing photos from the internet? I was told there were more than 4 volunteers for the Lawrence campaign. Hobbs' parade walkers can't be referred to volunteers if some of them were paid.

The only thing burning out is Rudy Hobbs' campaign warchest.

I have no idea what you're referring to about a Brenda Lawrence v. Tim Greimel poll. Where is that? I'd be interested to see it.

If Rudy Hobbs is surging and Brenda Lawrence has been capsized by this fictional negative name recognition you reference AND former Congressman Hansen Clarke is DOA, then I have no doubt Hobbs would be plastering the internets with his polling to support it. He isn't.  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
I have a feeling that many voters won't even know Hansen Clarke is running for the seat when absentee ballots arrive in 2 months. Having been in the race all of 3 weeks, I doubt he has done much voter outreach.

I constantly hear talk about how Hobbs has no money left. He has $173,000 left, Lawrence has $145,000 and Clarke has $1,768 on hand as of March 31st. I understand he had not declared for this race at that time, but the money isn't going to just pour in for him with 3 months until election day.

Yes, I believe his name recognition will win him some votes, and it might be a close election, but Hansen Clarke is not going to win the election on name alone. Let's remember that Gary Peters garnered over 11,000 more votes than Clarke did. While Hobbs is no Gary Peters, there are roughly 41,000 votes out there that didn't vote for Clarke or Lawrence.

Not being an incumbent and having the disadvantage of having to put this campaign together in 4 months is going to hurt Clarke's numbers. He is not going to get all 30,000 people to vote for him this time that did in 2012. As for the 41,000, I think the reason Hobbs has been in this race for almost a year now is to make sure he reaches as many of those people as possible.  Plus the endorsements of Kildee, Sander Levin, Carl Levin, MEA, etc. don't help. I also am predicting that the UAW will come out behind Hobbs as well.

[ Parent ]
Hobbs had less than Lawrence to spend.
A chunk of his funds that were raised must go toward the general election, so he has less to spend in the primary from my calculation.

Peters had 1.9 Million to spend to introduce himself to Wayne County and Detroit, in addition to shoring up his home turf. I believe he pulled 26 percent in 2012. Good showing, but it was a slog and expensive I'm sure.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Why would they need to go towards the general election?

[ Parent ]
Campaign finance law
This year, you can give up to $2,600 for a primary election campaign and up to $2,600 for the general election campaign (i.e. August 6 through November 4). Presumably some folks have given candidates $5,200 (or at least more than $2,600), meaning that some can't be spent until after the primary.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
he only brings his name and awkward pasue (Oak Park candidate form last night)

I guess

I was, No, do you count the person in the truck? that would make 5, and could have been.

If his paying people to be at a parade, is it?

It was internal polling her camp did, and was throwing around last year, early this one to show she would be a good candidate, No idea where it is now.

You ask anyone outside of Southfield about what they know of Brenda Lawrence, and you will get wrinkle noses, Anecdotal I know. Between that and the many times I've heard her called "The Loser" or that mayor that is always running, it kinda of starts to paint a picture.  

[ Parent ]
I wasn't at last night's Oak Park-Huntington Woods forum, I was at my home club in Pontiac. What was the awkward pause that you reference?

The internal polling included actual candidate Rudy Hobbs. And actual candidate Rudy Hobbs was not well known or polling highly. I've seen no polling from any source that says anything differently.

Yes, some political inside baseball players may have an opinion about various candidates -- but that doesn't mean the voters follow suit, by any means.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
It was
Hansen Clarke's closing statement, he started off with about 30-40 secs of silence.

Yes it did, but polls from over a year out don't meant much, as am sure just about anyone would tell you.  

[ Parent ]
I know of two internal polls.
One was conducted by Brenda Lawrence in November or December. The other, I heard, was conducted by Geoffrey Fieger to gauge his support when he was considering a bid. Both polls pegged Brenda Lawrence in first place, with Rudy Hobbs barely registering in either.

The person who was in second place in the Lawrence poll, if I recall correctly, was State Senator Bert Johnson. He has since left the race. I am interested to see where he throws his support, if at all, in this primary as his base of support is part of that electorate that appears very much up for grabs.

Vincent Gregory has also left the race, as has Jessica McCall and Steve Dunwoody. Godfrey Dillard may have been in one of those polls as well.

Since then, Hansen Clarke and Burgess Foster have joined the field. Maurice Morton joined and left the field as well. I anticipate Lawrence polled the Clarke angle, but I don't know for sure.

You can discount a poll that is five or six months old (I assume the other poll was in February-ish since that is when I heard about it) as outdated, sure, but absent any other polling information since then... all that remains is pure conjecture and speculation.

And I will say it again: With all the money that Rudy Hobbs has spent on staff and consultants for over the past year, I have to imagine a poll was conducted in there somewhere. It has not been shared, to my knowledge.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
After thinking about this
beside being a former congress person, not a current one, how many votes does David Bonior help her get in the 14th?

Maybe she is trying to get court the a much fought over votes of people in the 9th and the 10th congressional districts!

Bonior and Kildee.
David Bonior and Dan Kildee both account for the same number of votes within the 14th Congressional District: Zero.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
At least
Kildee has run for office this century, also I.E. is a seating congress person, but yes would still be zero votes. Doesn't it say something that many of the current politicians would rather have Rudy working alongside them rather then Lawrence?

[ Parent ]
Dan Kildee appears to be a good Congressman, a good Democrat and a good guy. The same applies for Bonior, who served for over 25 years and was in Leadership. I don't see why you are trying to browbeat and undercut so many Democrats (be it in the MDP Chair situation, the Debbie Dingell prospective candidacy or now) to boost your candidate or your argument.

Kildee endorses Hobbs. Good. That is his right. Same applies for anyone else.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
I don't see why you are trying to browbeat and undercut so many Democrats (be it in the MDP Chair situation, the Debbie Dingell prospective candidacy or now) to boost your candidate or your argument.

Politics may be a little choppy, and I don't know Rudy Hobbs personally - but I can't imagine he would want his supporters doing that.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
I'm not Browbeating
I like Bonior, I even have some of his trees in my yard, as are probably 80 percent of the pine trees in Macomb county. I was only questioning the relevance of a endorsement from a guy who last held office in 2002, and never represented a single voter in the 14th.

Sure older voters will know the name, but most people outside of Macomb county that are under 30 years of age, maybe 26-28, will just ask you "Who?"  

[ Parent ]
This one million times
I mean, if someone has a horse in this race, that is fine.  Personally, I like Lawrence, but I neither live in the district, nor intend to send her any money.  But this constant undercutting and the complete maligning of every other candidate in a race is something I'm not going to do - unless they are legitimately horrible (see: Horace Sheffield).

If you're for Hobbs, Warhawk, that's great.  But, yes, you're getting annoyingly hackish.

[ Parent ]
he manages to take over Conyers seat, that will be a very very interesting Primary come 2016.

[ Parent ]
he manages to take over Conyers seat, that will be a very very interesting Primary come 2016.

[ Parent ]
Bonior did run for office this century - he ran for governor in 2002.

Even so, your apparent point - that Kildee's endorsement means something because he's been in elected office more recently - is baseless. Kildee's a good guy - and so is Hobbs, from what I hear - but the importance of an endorsement isn't always determined by how recently the endorser served in elected office.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
I agree that is isn't always how recently the endorser served, but I think there is a big difference in 2014 between getting an endorsement from a sitting incumbent and a congressman from the 90s.

I definitely don't fault for Lawrence reaching out for Bonoir's endorsement, but Kildee has quite a bit of name recognition in Michigan these days, Bonoir not so much. I think sending out literature showing that you are endorsed by both Levins and Kildee will show people that these people want to work with Hobbs rather than Lawrence or Clarke.  

[ Parent ]
Is there any liberal consensus?
For the cognoscenti, endorsements are about money.

For the electorate, endorsements are about making folks comfortable with their choice.

Sandy Levin has been my state rep, etc, since I was a child, with periodic exceptions. Obviously he's endorsing Hobbs because Hobbs was an intern and staffer for his office.

But I trust Dave Bonior too, so his endorsement makes me want to volunteer. I doubt significant money comes with the endorsement. I don't know how much labor influence Bonior retains anymore.

I generally support Emily's List candidates, and they often send along a staffer or two during the campaign. That can help.

So good people, where are you putting your effort?

I'm supporting Brenda Lawrence.
... But I bet that was already evident in my previous comments.

A little anecdote, for what it is worth, which shapes some of my assessment about this primary's prospective outcome:

I live in Pontiac. In the 2012 primary the vote went heavily for Gary Peters, who had been the city's Congressman for two terms and a State Senator for eight years in the 1995 to 2002 range (ancient and irrelevant political history, according to some commenters in this thread). He was born in Pontiac and got married in one of our city's oldest churches. Gary Peters earned his Pontiac ties and worked hard to connect with voters over the years. As by far the best-known candidate to the Democratic primary voters, he did very well.

Now, in 2014, the Pontiac voter's choices are Hansen Clarke, Rudy Hobbs, Burgess Foster or Brenda Lawrence. I propose that the voters will again choose the name they most know out of the four: Brenda Lawrence.

She has been dismissed by the inside baseball crew as a so-called chronic election loser, but let us chew on this: Brenda Lawrence was on a Pontiac Democrat's ballot in August 2008, November 2008, August 2010 (convention), November 2010, August 2012.

Discounting the state party convention where she was nominated as the Democratic lieutenant governor candidate, that means she has been before the likely Democratic primary voter four times. I view that as a plus for her campaign. That is four more times than Rudy Hobbs (and Burgess Foster) and three more times than Hansen Clarke.

She was also visible in the city quite a bit last year in support of Deirdre Waterman, who was elected Mayor. Waterman has endorsed Brenda Lawrence for Congress.

Brenda Lawrence is a strong Democrat. She unseated the decades-long Republican mayor of Southfield and became the first African-American and first female Mayor in 2001. She served as head of the National Association of Democratic Mayors. She took on Brooks Patterson when others wouldn't in 2008. She forged ahead with our state Democratic ticket when everyone already was writing it off in 2010. The safer route would've been to go for a state legislative post, or another countywide position and she likely would've won handily. Then, she would've kept her undefeated streak (elected to school board, elected to city council, elected mayor four times now) intact.

And yet she entered the fight that she thought was necessary. I don't view that as a negative. I view that as a positive. I want an experienced leader (nearly 30 years in local government, but also with national connections) that is fighting for us and the Democratic Party.  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
in the 1995 to 2002 range (ancient and irrelevant political history, according to some commenters in this thread).

Quoted form the above post...if some commenters think those years are irrelevant, they must think of me as an irrelevant relic when I post about the historic Michigan elections, such as 1970.

As Santayana said:

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it"

[ Parent ]
Pish posh.
I feel strongly that it is indeed relevant, especially when establishing an ongoing bond with voters -- I was trying to make a goofy reference to a comment or two that dismissed David Bonior as having been a has-been whose endorsement didn't matter.

Besides, I love it when you share anecdotes from your years of Michigan activity. More, please!

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]

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