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Today in campaign news: Mark Schauer wants four debates

by: Eric B.

Thu May 29, 2014 at 11:05:42 AM EDT

*--By now, you've probably seen news that Mark Schauer has challenged our benevolent overlord Rick Michigan to four debates. If Tim Skubick wore a bow time, the prospect of this coming true would no doubt set it to spinning. We all know it won't happen, however, because there's no percentage in our benevolent overlord actually doing four debates. Plus, everyone hates debates because they offer very little upside and lots of downside if the candidate says something incredibly stupid, like says he's not gender biased because he has binders full of women. So what say we not make a big deal about this?

*--There's a poll out that has Hansen Clarke up in the 14th Congressional District primary race.

*--The campaign of Bobby McKenzie sent out a press release yesterday that said that the United Food and Commercial Workers Local 876 has endorsed McKenzie.

*--Saw it somewhere this morning that both Gary Peters and Terri Lynn Land have called for the resignation of Eric Shinseki.

Eric B. :: Today in campaign news: Mark Schauer wants four debates
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MLive says the numbers are Clarke 32%, Lawrence 22%, Hobbs 8%, and Foster 5%, leaving 35% undecided. They add:

Clarke's support grew to 37 percent when the polls introduced him as a former congressman, while Lawrence's number grew to 27 percent when she was introduced as Southfield mayor. Hobbs' support dropped slightly when he was introduced as a state rep, while Foster gained supported when introduced as a U.S. Marines Corps veteran, adjunct professor and substitute teacher, the poll found.

Wow. Clarke gained when people heard he used to be in Congress, while Hobbs actually lost support when people heard he was a state rep. Make of that what you will.

If Hobbs is to have any chance, he's going to need his endorsers to give him some actual backing - financial, volunteer, etc.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

It was eye-catching, indeed.
I doubt it is a matter of people disliking the position of 'Southfield State Representative' -- I think it is more a matter of 'former Congressman' and 'Southfield Mayor' reminding them, oh yeah, I think I know them... but not having the same effect for Hobbs since they had never heard of him before, title included or omitted.

Burgess Foster is entirely unknown and unfunded, yet, Hobbs does not have substantially more standing with voters than he does -- which is not what one would expect after spending hundreds of thousands of dollars and campaigning for over the past year.

We are three weeks away from absentee voting in some communities here in the 14th Congressional District. This race is between Hansen Clarke and Brenda Lawrence.

Whether Hobbs drops out* before election day or not, we might be in a situation where cresting 10 to 12 percent would be a good finish for him.

*His name cannot be removed from the ballot.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Very surprised at how low Hobbs' numbers are after campaigning for a year. Clarke and Lawrence definitely have more name recognition but I thought it would be closer. I think Clarke is going to take this election. His previous campaigns have just given him too much of a name advantage.

I wonder what Hobbs will do after this if he loses? That State Senate seat won't be open again for at least 4 years (maybe 8), and his former staffer is running to replace him in the State House. Maybe he will run to replace Lawrence as Southfield Mayor if she pulls out the victory.  

[ Parent ]
Elections are exciting!
Undecided is winning this race right now, but they'll have to make up their minds relatively soon.

In 2012, Hansen got 35 percent and Lawrence got 13%. From what we can tell based on this latest poll, Hansen has ebbed slightly to 32% (or 37%) from his previous run. Lawrence has grown to 22% (or 27%). One could thusly conclude that Lawrence is primarily garnering the large block of Gary Peters 2012 voters, and Hobbs is drawing from that pool to a lesser extent (8% and 8%).

It will be interesting to see how the various field and media strategies unfold throughout the 14th District, since so many voters have yet to make up their minds.

As I've commented before, albeit dismissed by others, Clarke has tangible name recognition in the Detroit and Wayne County portion of the district. This poll seems to reinforce that hypothesis, as that is the source of the bulk of his numbers.

Unfortunately for his chances, he has no campaign organization or funding that I can detect. He is going to events, posting pictures on social media and was advertising on Facebook for page 'Likes' (Hobbs has been for at least the past month nonstop), but that appears to be the extent of it.

Based upon all signals to date, Hansen Clarke does not have the campaign capacity to send mailings, produce and air radio & television spots, knock doors, make calls, run a robust GOTV operation and so forth.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
He has lots of options
Since Hobbs is a Granholm administration alum, Schauer might have a spot open for him in his administration.

A run for Secretary of State would also be plausible. Two things to keep in mind about that are (a) the possibility that Woodrow Stanley will run, as I've heard he's thinking about; and (b) the fact that the convention will be right after the primary, at which point he'd probably want a break. If Hobbs were to run for SoS, it might be better for him to suspend his congressional campaign and devote time and energy to running for SoS.

He might also run for something countywide in 2016. I'm thinking if LBP retires that year, Meisner or Woodward might make a run for County Executive, but if Patterson does run again, they'll probably stay put - letting Hobbs give it a go.

The guy is also a former teacher - he could be a good fit for State Board of Education.

Even if he doesn't win the congressional race, there are plenty of doors open for Rudy Hobbs.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
Hobbs claiming a dead heat
Team Hobbs says on Facebook that they're "in a statistical dead heat!" (Exclamation point theirs.)

Did another poll come out today showing him in a dead heat for first place? A quick search doesn't reveal any such poll. Barring such a poll, that "statistical dead heat" is a dead heat with Burgess Foster for third place. In that case, his campaign really shouldn't be calling it a dead heat.

Because as it stands now, it's a two-person race - and Hobbs going to need to work hard (and get his endorsers to work hard) just to make it a three-person race.

With more than 1/3 of the vote undecided, he still has a good shot - especially with all the institutional backing. But he only has 68 days.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

Smoke and mirrors, most likely.
I anticipate there is an internal poll that he conducted at some point. If so, perhaps he is referencing that -- because there have been none publicly shared that give him anything more than a murmur in the polls.

If it is an internal poll he is referencing, then that would presumably be AFTER the informed ballot where Hobbs was lauded and his opponents trashed. In other words, a push poll.

Perhaps his campaign would be so noble as to share this alleged polling information, for the public to make their own judgment. Alas, they will not share it whole-hog, or it would reveal the dastardly things they poll-tested about themselves as well as the other candidates.

For reference, Brenda Lawrence's poll from December was openly shared and Mr. Sarpolus' poll (presumably done on behalf of Hansen Clarke) was openly shared.


There is some "unskewing" afoot, which would be a laugh.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]

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