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Today in campaign news: An IMP tells me that Warren Evans won a Wayne executive poll

by: Eric B.

Thu Jun 05, 2014 at 09:16:57 AM EDT

*--According to a Inside Michigan Politics email blast, a poll conducted by Greenburg Quinlan Rosner on behalf of the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, has Warren Evans leading among Democratic voters likely to participate in the August primary. His lead in the poll (29 percent) is more than double the 14 percent for second place person, Westland mayor Bill Wild. Bob Ficano was dead last with 10 percent support. State Rep. Phil Cavanaugh was third with 13 percent, and Wayne County Commissioner Kevin McNamara had 12.

*--I got a look at the analysis Rudy Hobbs used to peg him at neck-and-neck with Brenda Lawrence and Hansen Clarke in CD-14. As you can imagine, it's mostly aspirational, and built around the idea that someone will be at very polling station telling voters going in that Hobbs is young, energetic and will bring new ideas to Washington.

*--Todd Courser, of the Tea Party Coursers, misspelled "qualified" in campaign lit. Interpret that as you will.

Update! ... *--I haven't been on Twitter in a couple of days, but yesterday Brenda Lawrence (or whoever is running her social media feeds) tweeted at me that Brenda Lawrence's campaign has been endorsed by the Muslim Community PAC.

Update2! ... Mike Rogers is raising money for Lil' Fella's challenger.

Eric B. :: Today in campaign news: An IMP tells me that Warren Evans won a Wayne executive poll
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I love the misspelling of "qualified" -- that is classic.

The Rudy Hobbs poll apparently did not include the fourth candidate on the ballot, Burgess Foster. As much as it may benefit his campaign to pretend otherwise, the voters will be presented with four names.

Unlike the Hansen Clarke / Ed Sarpolus poll from last week or so, this Hobbs / Mellman poll shows Brenda Lawrence in a close lead before and after the 'informed ballot'.

Absentee balloting will be here before we know it -- exciting!

Anyone have anything to report from the trenches in the 3rd, 4th, 8th, 11th or 14th district primaries (Democratic or Republican)?

Great Lakes, Great Times.

There's also this gem on the Courser piece
"We no longer honor our Creator for his divine provincial (sic) hand in blessing this nation."

Had no idea God was a Canadian.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.

[ Parent ]
shouldn't His be capitalized, per religious custom?

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, but wingnuts have an awful time with capitalization
For reasons that escape me, they think they should capitalize every noun--even if they think a word might be a noun.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.

[ Parent ]
Well, well, well
1. As Sheriff, Warren Evans has countywide name recognition - in a way, his doing well can be expected. But there are a lot of surprises here:

--Ficano in fifth place. Split opposition is not helping him at all.

--Bill Wild? Westland only has about 5% of Wayne County's population - just under 90,000 residents.

--Phil Cavanagh's district is also approximately 90,000 residents. Also surprising, though perhaps to a lesser extent, since Cavanagh's father was former Detroit Mayor Jerome Cavanagh.

--Kevin McNamara seems to be underperforming. I figured if anyone was going to beat Ficano, it would be McNamara, because McNamara.

Those of you in Wayne County (or familiar with Wayne County politics), any insights?

2. Many campaigns use polling to test various messaging themes for or against themselves. Someone suggested last week that it might be push polling - not ruling that out, but push polling is more about $#!^-stirring, and less about gathering and analyzing data.

Many candidates for smaller races are already knocking on doors - even some who don't have competitive primaries. If anyone has the kind of team that's capable of putting in the kind of effort needed to come back and win, it's Hobbs - but he's got 61 days to make that happen.

3. Unfortunately for Courser, withdrawing - er, withdrawing - is no longer an option.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

...A Deep Subject
Bill Wild is burning money on name recognition -- billboards, t-shirts, lit -- and his team has done some impressive work "showing the flag" at Cobo Center on Jeff-Jack Day, and on Mackinac Island for the MPC.

But then he likely has money to burn, what with the endorsement from Bill Ford Jr. and other corporate types.


The Northville Democratic Club is in the process of screening the top five Wayne County Executive candidates.

We interviewed Bob Ficano, Warren Evans and Kevin McNamara yesterday, and expect to see Bill Wild and Phil Cavanagh this evening.

It's been quite informative -- more than that I can't say until the panel processes all the data and we recommend an endorsement (or perhaps we deadlock and don't endorse anyone).

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
NDC Screening went well, and the Executive Board approved its statement...
...which will be presented to the general membership at their meeting next Monday.

Until then the proposed statement is embargoed.

Although it is safe to say the NDC (which, as a reminder, is the largest Democratic club in the state -- 270+ dues-paying members and a reach of nearly 1,000 active Democrats) will not be recommending Bob Ficano.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
Not that surprised at the results of the poll. Being the only Detroiter in the race, Evans has a big advantage. Especially since the others are all splitting the suburban vote.

I think Wild has campaigned harder and longer than anyone else in the race, so I can understand why he is coming in 2nd. With a ton of money, he might make it considerably closer before August. (I remember hearing in like Jan. that he had over $500,000 raised, and that was before the fundraiser Bill Ford held for him).

Wild needs to focus solely on Detroit right now and get his name out there within the city limits.

I think we are seeing that the "Cavanagh" and "McNamara" names don't mean that much anymore. While people in tune with Michigan politics for many years know who they are, I think the average voter doesn't care whose son you are if your father hasn't done anything in decades.  

[ Parent ]

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