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Horse race: The peasantry resents its overlord, Peters up on history's greatest candidate ... EVAR

by: Eric B.

Tue Jul 01, 2014 at 11:19:56 AM EDT


A new PPP poll is out. The results are as thrilling as a cage match in the dwarf wrestling circuit.

Snyder's sported consistently poor approval numbers in our polling, but they've now hit an unusually low point. Only 37% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 54% who disapprove. That's down from 40/48 in April and 42/49 in December. Snyder's disapproval with Democrats (78%) is higher than his approval with Republicans (66%), and he's at 38/53 with independents. Those numbers are all a far cry from 2010 when Snyder earned substantial crossover support from Democrats and won independent voters overwhelmingly.

Schauer continues to be relatively unknown to voters in the state. 49% have no opinion about him with those who do have one pretty closely split- 27% see him favorably and 24% see him unfavorably. That may be helping lead to the relatively large pool of undecideds. The undecided voters don't like Snyder- giving him a 16/68 approval rating. But they don't like President Obama either, rating him at 30/59. That makes for a complicated choice that's unlikely to send voters to one of the candidates or the other en masse. This is shaping up as potentially a very close race.

Exciting! How about the race pitting Gary Peters versus the greatest candidate ever fielded in any race, at any time, by any political party ... Terri Lynn Land?

The picture in the Senate race is steady. Gary Peters led Terri Lynn Land 41/36 in April, and the numbers are exactly the same three months later. Land has seen her favorability numbers drop precipitously as the campaign has unfolded. In December she had a +11 net favorability rating at 34/23. By April that had declined to -3 at 28/31, and now it's declined further to -10 at 32/42. She's received a lot of negative media coverage and that's carrying over to voter perceptions of her as well. Voters are closely split on Peters at 26/28, little different from 26/27 on our April poll.

And, how about our ongoing experiment in the Dunning-Kruger effect?

-The Republicans in the legislature are incredibly unpopular, with a 24/56 favorability rating. The Democrats at least manage to break even at 39%. Democrats lead the generic legislative ballot at this point 48/34- 92% of Democrats are committed to voting for their party, while just 79% of Republicans say they're going to vote for theirs.

It's going about as well as you could expect.

P.S. For reasons mentioned previously -- i.e. Democrats are doing different things this cycle -- I'm especially hesitant to make a lot out of these results.

Update! ...  Ye Old Emm Ess Emm is already grabbing on the notion that this poll sampled more self-identified Democrats than Republicans and more than in previous polls. There might be a reason for that, that has little to do with trying to turn the work of what last cycle was the nation's most accurate polling firm into a push poll intended to generate excitement among Dems. Of course, people have questioned their methodology, but the results speak for themselves.

Eric B. :: Horse race: The peasantry resents its overlord, Peters up on history's greatest candidate ... EVAR
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Schuette also in trouble (4.00 / 2)
-The Attorney General's race continues to be close with incumbent Bill Schuette at 34% to 32% for Mark Totten. The high level of undecideds is a reflection of the anonymity of the candidates- only 49% have an opinion about Schuette even after almost a full term in office, and Totten is known to only 24% of voters. It seems like there's a good chance this race will end up going the same way the one for Governor does.

Only 49% have even heard of Schuette, and only 34% plan to vote for him. It certainly won't help him to have the marriage trial happening in the weeks before the election.

So much for his 2018 gubernatorial aspirations.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott



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