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Vanguard poll has our benevolent overlord up by 8; Marist poll says things are closer

by: Eric B.

Tue Jul 15, 2014 at 14:40:17 PM EDT

Two polls are out today on the governor's race.

First things first, the one poll that everyone was sharing this morning comes courtesy Michigan Liberal's current sponsor, Vanguard Public Affairs, which is run by T.J. Bucholz, who is a personal friend of mine (I stood in his wedding, matter of fact). I've been meaning to do a sponsorship post for him, and hit him up yesterday to ask him if he's got anything interesting for me to share about his new launch. He told me that he was releasing this poll and I thought maybe putting the polling information in a sponsorship post to make it more interesting. But, it's legitimate front page content, so I opted to do a post. A second poll came out showing a different result, so there are two of them in this post. Point is that this post is totally unrelated to a money relationship.

Just so that's out there.

Vanguard Public Affairs' first statewide poll is out and it has our benevolent overlord up by 8 points. Meanwhile, a separate poll from Marist says that the race is a statistical dead heat. At that second link, it says that both the Cook Report and Real Clear Politics have moved the race into the Tossup category.

As I've mentioned previously, I'm not a big fan of horserace coverage. I think reporters who do it should focus on telling people something more substantive about the campaigns and what impact each candidate might have on our lives. I also think that they are better are predicting outcomes if everyone behaves exactly as they did the last cycle, which isn't the case this time. I've also been told that Lon Johnson thinks that if the Democrats can hold the race to within five percentage points that he likes his chances of toppling our benevolent overlord. My response is to arch an eyebrow and pop a little corn, 'cause things might get interesting.

Eric B. :: Vanguard poll has our benevolent overlord up by 8; Marist poll says things are closer
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NBC links to story and poll
Article: Poll: Democrats Hang On to Slight Leads in Key Senate Races

Poll report: Michigan poll

Greetings from Detroit, Ground Zero of the post-industrial future!

Marist polls registered voters
I discount this poll because it's not of likely voters in this November's election.  

[ Parent ]
Not so fast
A likely voter screen in July for a November race doesn't tell you much. It is standard practice to use a registered voter screen five months out. If we were talking about a primary poll that doesn't include a likely voter screen I would agree with your assessment.

[ Parent ]
The percentage of undecided likely voters according to Vanguard is more than twice the percentage of undecided registered voters according to Marist.

Interesting, to say the least.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

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