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Today in campaign news: Polling results in the 14th get an explanation

by: Eric B.

Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 14:00:00 PM EDT

*--Via press release, Rudy Hobbs has landed the endorsement of some Pontiac people, including Oakland County Commissioner Mattie Hatchett. His campaign also says that they have the most money on hand moving into the home stretch of the campaign. Will it do any good? According to this story, what it's doing is helping Hansen Clarke.

That's it for today. If you have something else, as always, discuss in comments.

Eric B. :: Today in campaign news: Polling results in the 14th get an explanation
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Daddy can't buy you a campaign job
It used to be that if your daddy had a lot of money, he could use it to get you a campaign job. Now, in order to buy a campaign job, you have to scrape up the money yourself.

Formed by some 2012 Obama alumni, 270 Strategies is charging people $5,000 to learn "their secrets" and then get placed in a job.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

Pontiac's Mayor Supports Brenda Lawrence.
Mayor Deirdre Waterman is behind Mayor Lawrence.

Mattie Hatchett and these Pontiac endorsers for Hobbs have mostly been listed on his endorsement website for some time. Your post states that she is a Wayne County Commissioner -- it is Oakland County.

The Oakland County Ministerial Fellowship, comprised of the bulk of Pontiac pastors, endorsed Brenda Lawrence for Congress. The two who voted against that endorsement, as opposed to the many for it are the two Pontiac pastors listed in this Pontiac press release from Hobbs.

Meanwhile, I don't know of any formal support Hansen Clarke has in Pontiac.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Also in campaign news:
As mentioned in my diary today, the Detroit Jewish News endorsed Brenda Lawrence for Congress.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Excellent column in today's Detroit News by Mark Totten
about Schuette and the Halbig case, and what Schuette's position will cost Michigan citizens if it stands.


I jump into some of the comments there.  

Great job.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Also: Lawrence Nabs NOW.
Brenda Lawrence for Congress was endorsed by the National Organization for Women (NOW) Michigan Chapter.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Red Flag
Hasen Clarke may very well be ahead of Lawrence.  In fact, I'd bet on it considering how hard Lawrence and Hobbs have upped their criticism of Clarke.  That said, the recent EPIC-MRA poll raises serious red flags, for me, and enough so that I feel like calling shenanigans on it.

When you dig into the poll, you see that the sample's racial break down is 47% white and 34% black.  This is in a district that is 58% black and only 31% white; this isn't just flipped from the make-up of the district, but flipped and then some.  And, that's the entire district.  You can bet the percentage of black voters in a Democratic primary will be even higher.  We're talking an electorate that could end up being nearly three-quaters black in the primary (particularly given that all of the major candidates are black), and yet this sample shows a primary electorate in this black-majority district that is nearly half-white.  No 'effing way.

I'm actually shocked EPIC would let this out to be honest.  My gut feeling is that Lawrence was the early favorite, but that she might be running slightly behind Clarke.  I also think Hobbs has probably made up serious ground.  I guess what I'm saying is what was looking like a race for Lawrence is probably a complete toss-up, now.  I wouldn't be surprised to see any of these candidates pull this out.

I had similar concerns.
I previously commented along those lines here.

I saw the same analysis later arise at Daily Kos Elections, prompting them to dismiss the findings -- but apart from that, really no mention of it in any of the traditional media regurgitation of the results.

Whatever the outcome, I bet it will be fascinating to delve deeper into the results, municipality by municipality.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
No way
It doesn't go below the district level.  You're not going to find out city-by-city.  The truth is that the ethnic/racial breakdown of the poll is enough to throw it in the trash.  

I'm really disappointed EPIC hasn't gotten better at polling.  They are really the only half-way non-partisan outfit we have in Michigan.  Most of the others are Republican pollsters, and the only other Democratic pollster that gets picked up semi-regularly in Michigan (Denno) is even worse than EPIC.  It's bad that only PPP out of North Carolina can be trusted to be closer to reliable/accurate here in Michigan.  The GOP pretty much has the lock of spinning narrarives when it comes to polling in Michigan.  On the Republican side of things, Mitchell seems to be the only one that I can even glean anything useful from (i.e. trends).

[ Parent ]
I apologize for not being specific.
I meant it will be fascinating to delve deeper into the election results on August 5th and after -- not the off-base polling results.

There are so many unique communities within the 14th that I'm excited to see how each responded to the candidates and their campaigns. There is that whole Oakland-Wayne dichotomy question, as well. From a Political Science geeklike perspective, I am looking forward to delving deeper into those election results.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

[ Parent ]
Rashida Tlaib.
State Representative Tlaib knocked on my mother-in-law's door in Southgate this week. Source: Our nephew, yesterday.

Tlaib has a substantial lawn-sign-in-actual-voter-lawns presence in Southgate. Source: My eyeballs, last weekend.

I am interested to see how the various pieces of that State Senate district puzzle respond to the candidates.

Also in Southgate I've seen a lot of Ralph Liberati (is that his name?) signs, with Italian flag colors utilized.

Judging by the literature in the mail I've seen come through Southgate, the Kandrevas district court race is a hot one.  

Great Lakes, Great Times.

In my opinion Tlaib is one of the best canvassers in the area. I think she realizes that working hard in Southgate and Allen Park could help her big time. Virgil Smith carries little to no name recognition in these downriver cities and people will vote for who they know.

It's Frank Liberati (Former Allen Park school board member) that is running against Tony Trupiano for state rep in that race. They both raised small amounts of money but Liberati has more name recognition in the downriver area but Trupiano has all of the important endorsements.  

[ Parent ]
Rashida Tlaib, Part Two.
Also, this from Gongwer:

Campaign finance filings on Friday show Rep. Rashida Tlaib has spent a whopping $193,744 to try to unseat 4th Senate District incumbent Sen. Virgil Smith, who spent $109,255 between January 1 and July 20


Great Lakes, Great Times.

Dian Slavens.
Gongwer also reports that Dian Slavens and Sean McCann both outraised their Republican opponents, per the campaign finance filings.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

Dian Slavens, Part Two.
Patrick Colbeck has spent almost $200,000 of his campaign contributions prior to this calendar year. At the beginning of the year, he had $28,000 left in the bank (from approx. $170,000 raised).

This year, so far he has raised $43,000. He has exhausted most of that sum already.

Dian Slavens now has $100,619 in the bank, per the campaign finance reports. She raised $113,902.

So in this cycle, Colbeck raised $219,000. He now has $28,223 in the bank.

The Republicans rig the Michigan campaign finance laws to allow twice the amount of maximum contributions from the likes of DeVos and other far-right funders (mainly to save their legislative majorities and the likes of Colbeck) -- and then he blows through that higher amount raised, anyway! My mind is blown.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

We REALLY want Dian to win
Among the activists in western Wayne there's as much interest in Slavens beating Colbeck as in all three U.S. House candidates combined.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
For the lazy among us
... or just me... wth has he spent all that on?!  

[ Parent ]
I would not give to a candidate
that somehow blew through 175k before the race even really started.  For any seat. WTH did he do with all that money...

[ Parent ]
And his base lectures us about fiscal responsibility.
They who can't lead by example, can't lead at all.

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]
I would not give to a candidate
that somehow blew through 175k before the race even really started.  For any seat. WTH did he do with all that money...

[ Parent ]
He spent plenty on big-ass campaign signs
Colbeck, Shannon Price, and Dave Trott have signs all over Canton.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.

[ Parent ]

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