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Analysis

by: matt

Fri Aug 26, 2005 at 01:00:00 AM EDT


Alan Fox (interview with Matt Ferguson, June, 2005):

AF: These next two seats are actually pretty similar. They're two eastern Lower Peninsula seats, Gillard and (Joel) Sheltrown. Kerry got 45% in each of them, and Gillard won his second term with 58% and Sheltrown won his first term (the family's fourth term) with 57%. Those districts, in some respects, are like the Upper Peninsula in the sense that they're the sort of places where to the extent that Kerry was perceived as an Ann Arbor Democrat and not as an Alpena Democrat, he ran behind normal Democratic strength so that the numbers that show Kerry at 45% may understate the Democratic base. But even in good years, neither of those districts has been heavily Democratic. They've both been very contested. The fact that there are incumbents in both of them may make the Republicans think twice. But you'll have to look at those and think that they'll have somebody going after one or both of those.
matt :: Analysis
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