Analysis

by: matt

Thu Oct 06, 2005 at 01:00:00 AM EDT

Alan Fox (interview with Matt Ferguson, October, 2005):

MF: Why does Stupak run so far ahead of Kerry? What's his attraction up there?

AF: There are two things. One is that the Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula - which is where his district is - is where the Kerry vote was behind party base. Those are not Ann Arbor - East Lansing leftist Democrats up there, and independent voters and even some Democrats voted for Bush. Kerry numbers don't represent party baseline - the U.P. is still predominantly Democratic in most races, even though Kerry did poorly there. So, that 46% Kerry doesn't really represent the Democratic strength there.

On top of that, Stupak perfectly mirrors what the district is looking for. He has a law enforcement background, I don't think you'll find him on the wrong side of right-to-bear-arms issues...

MF: He's pro-life...

AF: He's pro-life, and he culturally fits in very well with the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula, and he's beaten some credible opponents. (Republican National Committeeman) Chuck Yob ran against him, without Stupak having a lot of trouble. In 2004, he ran 20 points ahead of Kerry. No other Michigan member of Congress ran more than 13 points ahead of their presidential candidate. So he's really got a lot of strength there.

It's a district the Republicans have on their wait list - they'll take a shot at it when he retires. But until then, they're going to let it go.

MF: Has a Republican ever held that seat?

AF: The seat was held for many years by Bob Davis, who was from the northern Lower Peninsula. Before that it was Phil Ruppee. It was Republican from about 1966 to whenever Stupak won it in the 1980s (I think). So yeah, it was Republican for quite awhile. Ruppee came from the U.P. and was a moderate, (former Gov.) Bill Milliken Republican. He gave up the seat in 1978 intending to run for U.S. Senate when Bob Griffin decided he did want to run for another term after all, Ruppee was iced out of his own seat. Davis won it that year when Democrats were divided in their primary, and eventually he fell victim to the checking scandal in Congress, didn't run, and that's when Stupak was able to win it.

MF: So Stupak won it as an open seat..

AF: Yeah, and I think Ruppee actually tried to reclaim it that year - or the next - I can't remember. So yeah, it's been Republican - and the Upper Peninsula's growth hasn't matched the Lower Peninsula part of the district, so the U.P.'s influence is shrinking. As the district creeps further down into the Lower Peninsula, they've picked up more and more Republican areas. It's certainly a winnable seat for them, but Stupak's not the incumbent they can beat there.

matt :: Analysis

Tags: CD01, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

Analysis | 0 comments

Features

Mobile Blog Reader - powered by Notice Orange

Politics & Elections Library:
- US Senate
- US House
- Executive Branch
- Michigan Senate
- Michigan House
- State Supreme Court
- Michigan Media

Special Sections:
- Technical Politics - Grebner
- Michigan's Fallen

Search

Progressive Blogroll

For MI Bloggers:
- MI Bloggers Facebook
- MI Bloggers Myspace
- MI Bloggers PartyBuilder
- MI Bloggers Wiki

Statewide:
- Blogging for Michigan
- Call of the Senate Dems
- [Con]serving Michigan (Michigan LCV)
- DailyKos (Michigan tag)
- Enviro-Mich List Serve archives
- Democratic Underground, Michigan Forum
- Jack Lessenberry
- JenniferGranholm.com
- LeftyBlogs (Michigan)
- MI Eye on Bishop
- Michigan Coalition for Progress
- Michigan Messenger
- MI Idea (Michigan Equality)
- Planned Parenthood Advocates of Michigan
- Rainbow Mittens
- The Upper Hand (Progress Michigan)

Upper Peninsula:
- Keweenaw Now
- Lift Bridges and Mine Shafts
- Save the Wild UP

Western Michigan:
- Great Lakes Guy
- Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott
- Mostly Sunny with a Chance of Gay
- Public Pulse
- West Michigan Politics
- West Michigan Rising
- Windmillin'

Mid-Michigan:
- Among the Trees
- Blue Chips (CMU College Democrats Blog)
- Christine Barry
- Conservative Media
- Far Left Field
- Graham Davis
- Honest Errors
- ICDP:Dispatch (Isabella County Democratic Party Blog)
- Liberal, Loud and Proud
- Livingston County Democratic Party Blog
- MI Blog
- Mid-Michigan DFA
- Pohlitics
- Random Ramblings of a Somewhat Common Man
- Waffles of Compromise
- YAF Watch

Flint/Bay Area/Thumb:
- Bay County Democratic Party
- Blue November
- East Michigan Blue
- Genesee County Young Democrats
- Greed, Eggs, and Ham
- Jim Stamas Watch
- Meddling Outsider
- Saginaw County Democratic Party Blog
- Stone Soup Musings
- Voice of Mordor

Southeast Michigan:
- A2Politico
- arblogger
- Arbor Update
- Congressman John Conyers (CD14)
- Mayor Craig Covey
- Councilman Ron Suarez
- Democracy for Metro Detroit
- Detroit Skeptic
- Detroit Uncovered (formerly "Fire Jerry Oliver")
- Grosse Pointe Democrats
- I Wish This Blog Was Louder
- Kicking Ass Ann Arbor (UM College Democrats Blog)
- LJ's Blogorific
- Mark Maynard
- Michigan Progress
- Motor City Liberal
- North Oakland Dems
- Oakland Democratic Politics
- Our Michigan
- Peters for Congress (CD09)
- PhiKapBlog
- Polygon, the Dancing Bear
- Rust Belt Blues
- Third City
- Thunder Down Country
- Trusty Getto
- Unhinged

MI Congressional
District Watch Blogs:
- Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood (CD08)

MI Campaigns:

- ActBlue (MI Congressional Candidates)
- Michigan Round Table for Diversity and Inclusion
- MichUHCAN (Affordable Health Care)
- Politics1 (MI Candidate Listings)
- Senator Carl Levin

MI Democratic Orgs:

- Michigan Democratic Party
- Michigan House Democratic Caucus
- Michigan Senate Democratic Caucus
- MDP Youth Caucus
- Michigan Young Democrats
- Ingham County Democratic Party
- Genesee County Dems Progressive Caucus
- Saginaw Area Democratic Club
- Justice Caucus
- South County Dems (Berrien Co.)
- Western Washtenaw Democrats

MI Progressive Orgs:

- America Votes Michigan coalition
- Michigan Labor organizations
- Michigan Voice coalition

MI Misc.:

- Absolute Michigan
- Center for Michigan
- Citizens Research Council
- Detroit News Politics Blog
- Freep Opinion
- Media Mouse (Grand Rapids Indy Media) Blog
- Michigan Campaign Finance Network
- The Michigan Citizen Blog
- Michigan Interfaith Trust Fund
- Michigan Future (WWJ)
- Michigan Nonprofit Association's blog
- Michigan Prospect
- Michigan Public News Service
- Michigan Radio
- Michigan Secret Court
- MLive.com Blogs
- Political Graveyard
- Red Tape Blog (Government Documents Librarians of Michigan)

National Alternative Media:

- Air America Radio
- BlogTalkRadio
- BuzzFlash
- ePluribus Media
- Indymedia
- New Journalist Program (Center for Independent Media)
- PoliticsTV

National Blogs:

- AFL-CIO Weblog
- BlogPAC
- Daily Kos
- Firedoglake
- From The Roots (DSCC)
- The Gavel (Speaker's Office)
- Huffington Post
- HuffPo: Rich Robinson
- Kicking Ass (DNC)
- MyDD
- My Left Wing
- The Next Hurrah
- Open Left
- The Thicket (NCSL)
- Senate Guru
- Smart Ass (CDA)
- The Stakeholder (DCCC)
- YDA