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Michigan Voters Prefer Hillary

by: nirmal

Sun Feb 04, 2007 at 07:34:47 AM EST


Great timing, Mr. Pingree.

According to the Detroit Free Press, Michigan Democrats overwhelmingly prefer Hillary Clinton.

Almost a year before the state's parties hold primaries or caucuses, Clinton is the clear choice of Michigan Democrats with a nearly 30-point lead over her nearest rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll conducted last week shows. The New York senator and former first lady got strong support crossing racial lines, income levels, geographical boundaries and age.

The Free Press website has full breakdowns of the head-to-head matchups and primary vote simulation.

At this point, I think that these results reflect on name recognition more than anything else.   To candidates, the real value of polling this early is in defining the media narrative and fundraising.

The head-to-head polls were conducted by Selzer and Company.  They sampled 675 voters from Jan 28 to 31, and claim a margin of error of 3.8 percent.  In their simulation of a Democratic primary vote, they sampled 273 voters from Jan 28 to 31, and claim a margin of error of 5.9 percent.

Be sure to check out Laura's first thread on Presidential Primary Polling, too.

nirmal :: Michigan Voters Prefer Hillary
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Dear God, why? (4.00 / 2)
Can anybody tell me why she keeps coming up in the polls?  I don't get it.  Why do so many Dems like her?

I don't get it either (4.00 / 1)
I've attributed it to a "woman" thing, or perhaps a "maybe the 1990s weren't so bad" thing.  Women break for her in a big way.  I wonder what would happen if one of the Republican candidates picked a female VP candidate who could stump well, like Kay Bailey Hutchison.

I don't trust Hillary's campaign skills.  She spent nearly DeVos sums of money from her warchest to get re-elected in New York when she was already 25-30 points ahead against a sacrificial candidate.  She could've spent under half that and won by about the same margin.  Ugh.


[ Parent ]
I guess her mantra is... (0.00 / 0)
"Go big or go home" ... ? She did the whole "I'm in. And I'm in to win" deal during her announcement, too.

It is worth noting Senator Clinton's electoral appeal even in the more rural and Republican counties of upstate New York, both in her initial 2000 victory and subsequent 2006 re-election.

Great Lakes, Great Times.


[ Parent ]
Head to head match-ups (4.00 / 1)
It's very interesting that Obama and Edwards do better in head to head match ups(except Clinton vs. McCain for Edwards) than Clinton Does.

Having said that do not underestimate Hillary Clinton. She would be a very formidable candidate and a great President.The main reason she gets such high negatives is because she is an assertive woman and if she can overcome that obstacle (that any strong woman candidate will have) she will be our first woman President. Remember, if Bill Clinton did not have Hillary he would not have been President, probably not even Governor of Arkansas.

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson


Why do you support her? (0.00 / 0)
What issues does she stand on that you agree with?

[ Parent ]
Supporting Hillary (0.00 / 0)
Actually I did not say I support her and she certainly would not be my first choice(my two first choices already have gone by the wayside). However, based on her longstanding fight for health care coverage for everyone I could certainly support her. I could also support her because I think she has the strenght to stand up to the Republicans more so than most of the other candidates.

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson


[ Parent ]
The good news is that whoever we run and whoever they run (4.00 / 1)
We come out ahead -- using the current top candidates.

The bad news is that Gore polls so low -- 7%.  WTF????  Is it because he's not really in the race yet?  Will his numbers come up once he jumps in?  I sure hope so.


Richardson! Richardson! Richardson! (0.00 / 0)
If the Democrats pick Hillary, there's a chance they don't get my vote in '08.

Among the Trees

Dislike for Hillary (4.00 / 2)
Eric B., I understand why there is some dislike for Hillary, I just don't understand why it is so strong. Is it all because of her stance on Iraq or is it more than that? Can you explain please?

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson


[ Parent ]
I see Hillary as nothing but naked ambition personified (4.00 / 1)
I can respect someone who admits that Iraq was a mistake.  John Edwards has done so, but I have seen nothing from Hillary to indicate that she has any loyalties other than to her own career.  Hell, I've got more respect for Joe Lieberman's position on Iraq than hers, which seems to shift according to the polls.

It's not that I hate her.  It's that I don't trust her, and would assume that if she stood to gain from it, she wouldn't hesitate to throw key Democratic constituencies under the bus.

Among the Trees


[ Parent ]
Agreed... (4.00 / 1)
It's not that we don't think she can win.  It's that winning seems to be the only thing to her.

We don't know where she stands on the issues, because she won't put her stance on issues on her website.  We know that with her warchest, she'll be reluctant to enact campaigns that are financed purely with public funds, and that in her run for President she'll be sucking up most of the fundraising money, hurting the grassroots.

She also seems too timid to stand up to the Republicans, as she's only gets active in speaking against Bush when it's politically convenient.

I said this in a different post-that she's a relic from the old DNC era-the kind that do $2,000 a plate fundraisers and suck up to a few rich donors, as opposed to building a strong grassroots people-powered movement.


[ Parent ]
That's the ugly side of the politics of triangulation (0.00 / 0)
The only fixed principle of triangulation is to win elections. Everyone is expendable, everything is negotiable.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.

[ Parent ]
Unfortunately (4.00 / 1)
I think Richardson is nothing but a place holder. He's there to keep votes away from Edwards in places where Hillary can't get early primary and caucus delegates like Nevada. Same goes for Vilsack in Iowa.

No one will be surprised if Vilsack wins Iowa, or Richardson wins Nevada. They'll be considered hometown favorites and Hillary will be given a pass for not winning those early states because of it. If Hillary doesn't come out on top in the early primaries, she's out of it, unless the above happens and then Vilsack and Richardson withdraw and endorse her after several primaries where she's likely to do better - Florida, Michigan.

If we're going to have a ticket without Hillary, Michigan will play a strategic role in doing so.

"The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895


[ Parent ]
You got a plan? (0.00 / 0)
Might be something for the email list.

[ Parent ]
She's a repudiation of everything we stand for (4.00 / 2)
It's bad enough that Hillary Rodham Clinton voted to give George W. Bush a blank check to wage a war of choice against Iraq.

Worse yet is that she's the candidate of the Democratic Party's mandarins: the fat-wallet donors from Manhattan and Hollywood, the Beltway consultants, unelected faux-intellectuals from the Democratic Leadership Council, and feckless consultants who've advised lawmakers to accommodate the far right and avoid taking stands on issues.

If she is the nominee, kiss the 50-state strategy goodbye, and forget about people-powered politics. The new party chairman will be a Terry McAuliffe wind-up toy, perhaps McAuliffe himself. And expect to hear this from party headquarters in Washington: shut up, write checks, and follow orders.

Say no to Hillary, and no to the Clintonistas.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.


A vote for Hillary (4.00 / 2)
is tossing four years of building grassroots and local organizations over board.

What she cares most about is Hillary Clinton. Every piece of literature or letter that comes out of her office, or campaign reads like it was written by a committee. Can you say tri-angulation?

Look at the dismal state of the party after eight years of Clinton and the four more years with the anointed guy Terry McAuliffe. We had squat. No one to knock on doors, no one to run for local and state level races. All they left us with was a mailing list of big donors that was obsolete by the time it was finished being complied and a DC headquarters that's the equivalent of a monument to McAuliffe.

In the words of Mary Scott O'Connor, "she's not my first choice, she's not my second choice, and she's not my third choice." She's not even my fourth, fifth, or sixth choice.

No Hillary.

"The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895


Attention, Scotty Urb (4.00 / 1)
You're engaging in ratings abuse. If you don't agree with the merits of what someone posts here, make an argument to the contrary.

A word to the wise should be sufficient.

A government that robs Peter to pay Paul can always count on the support of Paul.


Let Obama come to town a few times.... (4.00 / 2)
he'll pick up on Hillary.  Also, I agree with other folks who say that if Al Gore decides to enter the race late this year, all bets are off - and I kinda hope he does!

i do too (4.00 / 2)
it would make things a lot more interesting.

Check out my mediocre blog.

[ Parent ]
Nooooo! (0.00 / 0)
After George Bush,there's no more polarizing figure in American politics than Hillary Clinton(couldn't we just outlaw any Clintons or Bushs from being on a presidential ticket until the next century?)I don't see her winning a nationwide election.
I've been saying for a while now that the Democrat's best bet for 2008 is Al Gore-for several reasons.
He's virtually assured of every vote he recieved in 2000,plus most of the Nader votes,all of the Buchanan votes in Palm Beach County,and most likely more than a few Bush voters who have some remorse for the shithole we find ourselves in.
Speaking of shitholes,he was against the Bush debacle in Iraq before it started.
He has credibility and,from his successful film career,a high profile as an environmental leader,an increasingly important issue in heretofore red states of the mountain west(I expect he will recieve one of the biggest ovations of the evening when An Inconvenient Truth wins the Oscar).
The (correct) widespread perception that he was screwed out of the presidency in 2000 and his classy (although in my mind,too meek) response to that theft would play well with the press who savaged him then-the lazy bastards would let the 'warrior risen from the ashes' story write itself.
I like Gore-Clark or Gore-Richardson (too bad Gore-Granholm is an impossibility),but I think Gore-Obama would be formidable for the next four presidential elections.

I don't get the hate of ALL Clintons... (0.00 / 0)
dislike Hillary for any and all of the reasons above...it's early, there will be many more reasons to love and hate all of them before 11/08...BUT hatred for Bill? Seriously?

If GWB has done anything positive at all it is that he has shown the people of our country what an excellent President sounds/looks/acts like on a national stage....and that's Bill Clinton!

You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley


How would you describe (4.00 / 1)
the state of the democratic party after 12 years (1992 - 2004) of being run by Clinton appointees?

We went from being a majority party to a minority party. We lost control of state legislatures which resulted in flagrant political redistricting after the 2000 election which led to even bigger losses in Congress. We had no farm team. Our army of campaign volunteers was told to go home and write checks instead of knocking on doors.

We even allowed ourselves to fall so low that we restricted the area where people could "protest" at the 2004 convention to a 12' X 12' wire cage that was submerged in water most of the time due to overflowing drains.

That's not my idea of a democratic party.

"The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895


[ Parent ]
ok. two different subjects. (4.00 / 1)
Are you telling me that you don't think Bill Clinton better exuded what an American President should be more so than our current leader? That was my comment.

As for blaming Bill Clinton for the woes of Democrats in Michigan, I say to you with any necessary respect MOVE ON. We are making gains. We've taken over the State House. We fought off DeVos. Things are turning around and maybe, just maybe, if we stick together as Dems for once instead of falling into the cycle of in-party fighting and not letting go of past battles, we could actually do some line drawing ourselves.

You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley


[ Parent ]
Spare me the condescending tone please (0.00 / 0)
We have made strides here in Michigan recently. And everyone of those will be undone with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket and four more years of Terry McAuliffe, or his clone, as head of DNC.

"The truth is rarely pure and never simple." The Importance of Being Earnest, Act I, Oscar Wilde, 1895

[ Parent ]
no tone intended (4.00 / 1)
I just haven't been overly sucked into the '08 primary debate yet. It's too early. You are going to wear yourself out. I really don't think Hillary will win Michigan or the national nomination, but that wasn't what I was even what I was commenting about.

You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. - Aldous Huxley

[ Parent ]
He was a good REPUBLICAN president (1.00 / 1)
Clinton's legacy is NAFTA,telecommunications deregulation,and the DLC.His reward is getting to tour the world holding hands with George the First.


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