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'Political reality' and the Senate

by: Hazen Pingree

Sat Sep 22, 2007 at 01:05:53 AM EDT


Okay, we seem to have a good debate going here. Let's stick with it.

So what about the Senate? Why should the House Dems vote for a bill that may not be taken up by the Senate?

Well first of all, I won't bother you with any more of my silly sentimental talk about how it's the right thing to do, etc. Judging by the state of things, it's pretty clear moral arguments will have little to no effect on these House Dem obstructionists. 

No, if self-interest and cold-eyed political opportunism is the name of the game, I can do that too. Let's see if this strikes more of a chord: the House Dems need to pass a tax increase bill now because the consequences of failing to do so will ultimately be far more damaging to the caucus than any threat posed by the Pigman.

Don't believe me? Just read through the coverage this week...for example this editorial from today's Jackson Cit-Pat:

Simpson, Griffin not standing tall

With less than 10 days until state government potentially shuts down, courage has been in short supply in Lansing. And the finger is pointing at Jackson County's two state representatives, Mike Simpson and Martin Griffin, two of 10 state representatives who refused to vote on a budget deal that would have raised income taxes.

Simpson said he and Griffin have felt the heat for their inaction, which helped scuttle the tax hike. Yet politically, there's a fine line between what one calls courage and others label cowardice.

It takes guts to swim against the current if you're standing for something. It's gutless not to vote if you're afraid you won't get re-elected. To Simpson, Griffin and the other eight Democrats who wouldn't commit to vote either way, we ask: Just what are you standing for?

Note that the narrative is not about Bishop. It's about House Dems chickening out - twice - and losing their nerve. Saulius and his crew have done a very effective job of getting their message out about the "yellow 10." All we have in return is a John Kerry-esque procedural retort that "we don't want to vote for a bill that the Senate may not take up." Try putting that on a billboard.

To make matters worse, this storyline fits precisely within the ongoing rap against Dems nationally - that we're a party full of boneless wonders who just blow with the wind and can't ever seem to get the job done (this week's failures in the U.S. Senate on Iraq only add one more arrow in this quiver).

Alright, now based on what I've observed so far, I actually do not believe that Bishop will take up any bill the House might actually be able to send him. And if it did get to that point, the pig people will likely have raised such a ruckus that any Senate Republican crossovers will be bullied into submission. This is why I put the current odds of a government shutdown at about 80%.  There are simply too many timid and inexperienced legislators (thank you term limits) involved here. I hope I'm wrong, but I'd be extremely surprised if this group of 148 people mananged to pull something together before Thursday (which is the REAL deadline, BTW - not October 1).

Okay...so we're probably going to have a shutdown. The question now for the House Dems is this. Do you...

A. Not pass anything and be portrayed as part of the problem

or

B. Pass a tax increase bill and put blame for the shutdown squarely in Mike Bishop's domain.

Now let's talk about blowback from a tax increase vote. Whether there's a shutdown or not, the resolution will ultimately involve a tax increase of some sort. This is pretty clear to everybody. Michigan needs money and it's not all going to come from service cuts (sorry Leon) and it's not going to materialize out of thin air. There's going to be a tax increase and some swing district Dems are going to have to vote for it. Recognizing this, would it be better to vote for it up front and help put blame for the shutdown on Bishop's shoulders...or to wait until days or weeks into the shutdown when all hell is breaking loose and legislators can't be seen in public for fear of being attacked by angry mobs.

The point of all of this is that it is inevitable that - one way or another - some swing district Dems are going to feel some pain. I simply maintain that the pain will be lesser for those who vote for a modest tax increase now than the pain that will be felt by Dems if the caucus opts to take partial ownership of Michigan's first shutdown in nearly 50 years.

That's why I say vote for a tax increase, irrespective of what the Senate may do.

Hazen Pingree :: 'Political reality' and the Senate
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Why? (0.00 / 0)
Barring a two chamber solution, why should any house member walk the plank for what ultimately could be nothing?

I am all for profiles in courage but at least if you are gonna  cut your throat make sure it is for a final deal.

"Win if you can, lose is you must, but ALWAYS cheat!" -- Jesse Ventura

"Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because its the best thing going. Wooooo!" -- Ric Flair


It's suicide if they do nothing. (4.00 / 2)
Pingree's right.  They can either take the balme for a shutdown and lose in 2008, or they can do the right thing and have a fighting chance to keep their jobs.

Because believe me, NOBODY is getting reelected if they take the blame for a shutdown.

Putting conservatives in charge of our government makes about as much sense as GM hiring a CEO who hates cars.


[ Parent ]
Why? I think Hazen said it best... (4.00 / 3)
this storyline fits precisely within the ongoing rap against Dems nationally - that we're a party full of boneless wonders who just blow with the wind and can't ever seem to get the job done

What's the point of having a majority if you're not willing to put up the votes and do the right thing when the fate of the state is at hand?

You talk about a "final deal" -- what makes you think Mike Bishop will ever agree to a "final deal"? Just a couple weeks ago Andy Dillon said this:

There was a deal. The Governor sent a letter, she talked about it, and there was six-eight people sitting in a room when that deal got cut, and Mike walked from that, and I bit my tongue because I wanted an outcome. I've been busting my... you know what... to get Mike Bishop to get a bipartisan deal. Every time we have a chance to cut a deal, he walks away. Today he walked away...

It's clear that Mike Bishop has no interest in bargaining in good faith with the Governor of Speaker Dillon. Given that, the best choice for House Dems is Option B: Pass a tax increase bill and put blame for the shutdown squarely in Mike Bishop's domain.

Trust me, the blowback from Option A (Not pass anything and be portrayed as part of the problem) will be much worse than anything the Pigman can throw at us.

The less you know, the more you believe.


[ Parent ]
Preach on, brotha Pingree! (4.00 / 4)


Putting conservatives in charge of our government makes about as much sense as GM hiring a CEO who hates cars.

Amen (4.00 / 3)
Glad your back for this. It takes a heckuva situation to have a man rise from the grave a second time.

Success is not final, failure is not fatal. - Winston Churchill  

Bishop gets to define the terms (4.00 / 5)
The other huge problem with failing to pass any plan is that Bishop now gets to define the terms of the debate in the Senate. He's talking about a cut/revenue combo that's heavy on the cuts. That will then become the defacto plan and House Dems will be in the position of arguing why we need to cut less when we could have put Bishop in the position of why he needed to cut more.

Game theory (4.00 / 4)
only works when both sides are willing to accept the rules of the game.  Dillon continues his efforts to be fair & bipartisan & is shocked, shocked! to find that Bishop ain't playing. 

Bishop knows that he's safe (for the short term), because Dillon's inability to move a handful of Dems has turned into the story.  Hazen is absolutely right -- Dillon needs to whip everyone into line, pass the damn bill and sit back to watch Bishop squirm.

P.S. I'm in Chris Ward's district & I was disgusted (though not surprised) to see that he was left twisting in the wind...


The Problem from the Beginning (4.00 / 2)
This has been the problem from the very beginning of this battle going back to Granholm's State of the State speech. She unveiled a plan but obviously hadn't rallied Dillon and the House Dems behind it. So instead of putting forward a united front and putting Bishop on the defensive right away, he got to dictate a lot of terms for the previous budget agreement that were ridiculous (like the "delayed payments" to universities that we all knew might never materialize).

Fast forward a few months later and now we have ten Democrats who simply won't vote. Or as they would say, "Taking a principled stand by not-voting in order to force a bipartisan deal." If a bipartisan deal is so important why aren't Simpson, Byrum and the ten putting forward their own bipartisan plan?

Jack Lessenberry had this to say about those ten Democrats, "They are gutless wonders. They refused to vote because they want to hang on to a job they are going to lose in six years; the state of Michigan is at stake here."


[ Parent ]
Interesting Question (0.00 / 0)
Before Granholm's State of the State, did Dillon promise Granholm that he would support her plan?  Did he have any input on the plan before it was announced?

If he did, and failed to deliver, then it's Dillon, not the ten Democrats that is a "gutless wonder".


[ Parent ]
Dillon Not Trying to Be Fair and Bipartisan (0.00 / 0)
He's just plain chicken.  He wants someone else to do his hard work for him, whether that's the Governor, Chris Ward or Mike Bishop.

A shocking display of a lack of intestinal fortitude.

Afraid of a pink pig and Hair Gel Man.


[ Parent ]
If the Dems who vote no are afraid of the Pig (4.00 / 1)
Lets give them our own pig...challenge them in the primary if they are going to vote like a Republican.

Success is not final, failure is not fatal. - Winston Churchill  

[ Parent ]
I am embarassed by my Party's lack of courage and leadership (4.00 / 3)
Simpson, Griffin and the rest of the Yellow 10 should be ashamed to be instructed in the art of leadership by Republican Chris Ward.  They are obviously only interested in keeping their jobs, not doing what's needed to help save Michigan.  Gov. Pingree is right-- if the state shuts down, the whole legislature deserves to be thrown out!!  Enough is enough.

What we have here is a failure to communicate (4.00 / 3)
And frankly, I think it's because we (as Democrats) have especially poor messengers.

It's getting to the point where I am thinking we need a new mindset entirely.  I'm not talking about folks on the tubes, I'm talking the real world characters--namely our elected representatives.

I'd say it's high time to recall the Athenians and send in some Spartans.

Julie

To prepare for when your life flashes before your eyes, make sure it's fun to watch.


Yes! More Spartans. (0.00 / 0)
Send in these guys!



Putting conservatives in charge of our government makes about as much sense as GM hiring a CEO who hates cars.


[ Parent ]
Friggin' hilarious! (4.00 / 2)
I completely agree. We totally need to invite these guys to the Capitol tomorrow.

Oh...speaking of Spartans...it's time for the game. Go green!

"HAZEN S. PINGREE...He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE"


[ Parent ]
Courage comes in surprising places... (4.00 / 3)
There is likely to be some political (and financial) fallout for some of the very astute things said here today.  Some of our comments will be taken out of context by Rethugs and MSM to "prove" points.  For whatever record this may be, I am proud to be part of a civilized discourse in which members of the Democratic Party can question authority and help to shape the process.

Some elected officials, staff and MDP folks may see this dialog as heresy and that we are being disloyal.  My response is that I am a member of the Democratic Party, not a slave to it.  I refuse to drink whatever Kool-Aid is being passed around because the stains may wash out of your clothes, but to your soul, it's permanent.

I will think independently, vote democratically and live responsibly. 

Do stupid people know they are stupid?


It's Time for Democrats to Act Like Democrats (4.00 / 5)
What's the point of a Democratic majority in the House, if they vote like Republicans and fail to protect education, health care, and public safety?

[ Parent ]
The yellow Ten (4.00 / 2)
I apologize in advance for my naive comments. However, I cannot sit still and watch these yellow ten display that for which the democrats nationally are tagged with; ie. DOING NOTHING!

Hazen Pingree arises again with the needed sense.

Do any of you ten cowards for a moment think that you will not be challenged in the next primary for your present seat? You will be held accountable for - DOING NOTHING!

If you do not vote with the dem caucus, you will be voted out of office at primary time. You will not even be given the choice to run for your precious seat. No pension, no salary, no healthcare for life.

Sh%t or get off the pot. We will work to remind the dem base that you are worthless cowards. This means Barb Byrum and Marc Corriveau as well. Don't count on owning momma's seat past the next election or "change your mind fast".

Now I will not be so crabby. The other side will beat us with their cohesive group. Only one crossed over and Mr. Ward will be crucified for his courage. Any dem who voted against this should likewise be held accountable.

Enjoy your seats coward yellow dogs.



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