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Anatomy of a catastrophe

by: Hazen Pingree

Thu Sep 27, 2007 at 19:47:13 PM EDT


How did we get here? Here's one 167-year old dead ex-governor's opinion:

Term Limits


Much has been said about the evils of term limits. It's all true. Throwing people out just as they're starting to figure out how to actually do their jobs effectively is one incredibly stupid idea and the fact that we're here today, getting ready for a government shutdown in the middle of a recession, is living proof. Is it any wonder term limits were brought to us by the same government haters who paid for the giant scofflaw anti-tax pig parked in front of the Capitol today.

In the old days, legislators used to have a much better sense of their political abilities and limitations and more comfortable telling leadership to go jump in a lake. These were the folks that could be relied upon to come together in a crisis and make things right. With a few exceptions, they're all gone now, thanks to %$#*&ing term limits.

John Mathias Engler and the 90th Michigan Legislature

Back when SUVs were selling like crack cocaine and Michigan was flush with cash (relatively speaking), John the Body and his allies in the Republican-controlled legislature thought it would be fun to cut Michigan's income tax rate from 4.4 percent to 3.9 percent. But they didn't have the chutzpah to do it all at once. Instead, they opted to phase it in...over 5 years.

Originally backed by Republicans, this plan did pass with substantial Democratic support (including many legislators I like and respect). Just for kicks, here are the vote totals listed in the House and Senate journals for SB 001 of 1999 - one of a package of bills implementing the .5% income tax cut:

Senate 2/11/99 32-2:
Yes Loren Bennett (R), Joanne Emmons (R), Don Koivisto (D), Bill Schuette (R), Dianne Byrum (D), Harry Gast (R), Burton Leland (D), Joe Schwarz (R), John Cherry (D), Mike Goschka (R), Thaddeus McCotter (R), Dale Shugars (R), Ken DeBeaussaert (D), Joel Gougeon (R), George McManus (R), Ken Sikkema (R), Dan DeGrow (R), Bev Hammerstrom (R), Art Miller (D), Glenn Steil Sr. (R), Chris Dingell (D), George Hart (D), Walter North (R), Leon Stille (R), Mat Dunaskiss (R), Phil Hoffman (R), Gary Peters (D), William Van Regenmorter (R), Bob Emerson (D), Dave Jaye (R), Mike Rogers (R), Joe Young (D)
No Alma Wheeler Smith (D) Jackie Vaughn (D)
NV Bill Bullard (R), Ray Murphy (D), Virgil Smith Sr. (D)

And in the House (See if any names look familiar):

House 2/10/99 96-11
Yes Jason Allen (R), Jennifer Faunce (R), Jim Koetje (R), Andy Richner (R), Patty Birkholz (R), A.T. Frank (D), Mike Kowall (R), Vera Rison (D), Clark Bisbee (R), Valde Garcia (R), Wayne Kuipers (R), Sue Rocca (R), Mike Bishop (R), Belda Garza (D), Janet Kukuk (R), Alan Sanborn (R), Rose Bogardus (D), Terry Geiger (R), Charles LaSata (R), Mark Schauer (D), Doug Bovin (D), Paul Gieleghem (D), Gerald Law (R), Gloria Schermesser (D), Ken Bradstreet (R), Jud Gilbert (R), Lamar Lemmons III (D), Judith Scranton (R), Lingg Brewer (D), Pan Godchaux (R), Patricia Lockwood (D), Scott Shackleton (R), Bob  Brown (D), Bob Gosselin (R), David Mead (R), Dale Sheltrown (D), Cameron Brown (R), Mike Green (R), Mary Ann Middaugh (R), Marc Shulman (R), Bill Byl (R), Lauren Hager (R), Mickey Mortimer (R), Doug Spade (D), Bill Callahan (D), Derrick Hale (D), Andy Neumann (D), Tony Stamas (R), Nancy Cassis (R), John Hansen (D), Bill O'Neil (D), Mickey Switalski (D), Sandy Caul (R),  Artina Tinsley Hardman (D), John Pappageorge (R), Susan Tabor (R), Deb Cherry (D), Jim Howell (R), Bruce Patterson (R), Paul Tesanovich (D), Irma Clark (D), Ruth Ann Jamnick (D), Chuck Perricone (R), Buzz Thomas (D), Hansen Clarke (D), Mark Jansen (R) Steve Pestka (D), Laura Toy (R), Ken Daniels (D), Ron Jelinek (R), Hubert Price (R), Gerald Van Woerkom (R), Eileen DeHart (D), Jon Jellema (R), Mike Prusi (D), Gerald Vander Roest (R), Julie Dennis (D), Rick Johnson (R), Mike Pumford (R), Steve Vear (R), Gene DeRossett (R), Ruth Johnson (R), Nancy Quarles (D), Helen Voorhees (R), Larry DeVuyst (R), Larry Julian (R), Andrew Raczkowski (R) Paul Wojno (D), Paul DeWeese (R), Thomas Kelly (D), Triette Reeves (D), Dave Woodward (D), SteveEhardt (R), Kwame Kilpatrick (D), Randy Richardville (R), Gary Woronchak (R)
No Laura Baird (D), Gilda Jacobs (D), Jack Minore (D), Keith Stallworth (D), Liz Brater (D), Ed LaForge (D), Joseph Rivet (D), Ed Vaughn (D), Mike Hanley (D), Lynne Martinez (D), Martha Scott (D)

Many of the "yes" voters did have concerns about where the money was going to come from to fund these tax cuts or what would happen if the unthinkable happened and Michigan's economy went into the tank. However, using the same logic that led John Edwards and Hillary Clinton to vote for the Iraq War, they decided that - since the thing was going to pass anyway - they may as well vote for it (conscience be damned) and go on record as being a lean, mean tax cuttin' machine. This they did.

Since then, of course, no one has bothered to pass any new tax or substantial service cuts to make up for the missing revenue. Instead, Michigan has limped along on a series of one-time fixes - gimmicks such as completely burning through the $1.2 billion rainy day fund. This is one major reason why we have a deficit today.

The list continues below the fold...
Hazen Pingree :: Anatomy of a catastrophe
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler executives

Their abysmally-poor plannng led the Big-3 (now also called the "Detroit 3") to put all of their product emphasis on giant sport utility vehicles - long after it became clear that rising gas prices were not going away. This astonishing lack of foresight has led to a significant erosion in Big 3 marketshare - going from 71% in 1999 to 48% last month. Since auto manufacturing continues to be our state's bread and butter, the woes of the auto industry have - both directly and indirectly - taken a chunk out of state tax revenues, adding to an already bad budget situation. This - and the general downsizing of our manufacturing sector - is the other major reason why we're now facing a deficit.

George Bush

"The Decider's" refusal to do anything about the nation's wasteful and broken private health insurance system means health care costs continue to spiral ever upward. This hits everyone across the board: government workers, teachers...and especially the auto companies. Along with starting an unessecary war in Iraq, and running one of the most despicable and corrupt regimes this nation has ever known, The Decider has also refused to consider modifying trade agreements to insure that America retains at least a minimal manufacturing base. Not so good for Michigan.

Senate Republicans

Despite the fact that nearly all of them had a hand in creating this fiscal crisis when they were in the House (see above), Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop and his colleagues have obstructed progress toward a solution at practically every turn. In March - one month after Governor Granholm unveiled her 2% service tax proposal - Senate Republicans voted it down. Since then all they have offered is a string of draconian budget cuts and "reforms" that
would do absolutely nothing to address the immediate fiscal crisis (and at best have a minor impact over the long term). These appear driven more by a desire to punish political enemies (i.e. teachers) or to open up new privatization business opportunities for Republican donors and allies (foster care and prison privatization).

While some Senate Republicans candidly acknowledge (to reporters) that a tax increase of some kind will be needed, they have so far failed to put forward a proposal that includes any sort of tax increase.

In late June, to protect schools from severe cuts due to an unanticipated lack of cash in the current budget, Senate Republicans agreed with the governor and the House to use one-time revenue sources and delay payments (until after Oct. 1) to universities. After that, the Senate (and House) spent most of the months of July and August on vacation.

This week, Senator Bishop demanded that a budget fix be postponed again - for up to 30 days. Bishop says he won't consider a tax increase until after the Governor and House have agreed to pass a continuation budget, thus kicking the can down the road again and wasting precious time while the crisis grows worse (lowered credit ratings, etc.) Fortunately, the governor has steadfastly rejected this demand.

In a final spectacular display of how seriously he is taking the situation - and with only days left before a government shutdown - Bishop waited over 48 hours before even appointing senators to a conference committee charged with coming up with a bipartisan agreement on a tax increase.

All of this from a Senate Republican majority that the majority of Michiganders did not vote for (thanks to John Mathias Engler's gerrymandering).

House Democrats

Considering several House members won their seats by riding Governor Granholm's impressive coattails last November (giving Dems a majority that no one expected them to have), one would think House Dems would have shown some more deference to their chief executive. Instead, almost immediately after the governor presented her service tax proposal, certain House Democrats whined publicly that the governor did not consult with them first. And despite repeated - and grueling - attempts to pass an income tax increase, the Democratic House (along with the Republican Senate) has still failed to deliver a bill that includes a tax increase.

According to sources close to the negotiations, House Speaker Andy Dillon - egged on by campaign-obsessed senior staffers - has convinced the politically-vulnerable members of his caucus not to vote on a tax increase in hopes that a few House Republicans (Michigan's House is split only slightly in favor of the Ds) might be pressured into voting yes.  According to this logic, some vulnerable Dems would then be able to vote no and better protect themselves in 2008.  But after two utterly embarasing attempts, no other Republican besides Chris Ward has blinked.

Mainstream media

State government coverage continues to be less and less of a priority in Michigan. Booth Newspapers' respected Lansing bureau closed this year, no Detroit TV stations keep a reporter here and the state's largest newspaper - the Detroit Free Press - only maintains a skeletal presence in Lansing. Video news releases, stories about children, fuzzy animals, crime and celebrities take up ever more space, forcing political budget news to the rear (if it appears at all). Meanwhile, editorial writers - best exemplified by the Detroit Free Press' Ron Dzwonkowski - have taken an utterly pedestrian and superficial approach to the situation, giving their readers a series of unfocused rants about the powers that be in Lansing, while providing little substantive information about what is actually occuring.

Watch carefully now as the Metro Detroit TV hairdos suddenly descend on Lansing and pretend they've been here all along and actualy understand the situation (when they're really just re-writing wire copy).

None of this is to say there aren't a number of very talented and dedicated reporters in Lansing. There are. It's just that there seem to be fewer and fewer of them - and the ones who are left aren't getting the placement they deserve. Not so great if you care about having an informed electorate.

Governor Jennifer Granholm

It should be no surprise to anyone who has read my scriblings in the past that I see the governor as the least culpable of any of the parties mentioned here. First of all, she put her tax increase plan on the table way back in February - a whole seven months ago. Unlike the Legislature, she did come to work during most of July and August. And during her time in office, she has gone to great lengths to inform people about the severity of Michigan's budget crisis and the choices we confront.

That said, there are a few things that I wish the governor had done differently.

I wish she hadn't agreed to the deal back in June (mentioned above) that allowed the Michigan Business Tax to go forward and delayed a resolution on dealing with the rest of the budget. We lost a lot of leverage. I also think she should have just gone with a straight-up income tax increase in the beginning (instead of the 2% service tax). Philisophically, I agree with an approach that includes some progressivity. But it was just too difficult to explain. Not that I think it would have made a difference with the legislative neanderthals. However, it might have helped in rallying the base.

As for most of the rest of the knocks on Granholm, they seem to be pretty much all over the map. Some say she's being too aggresive. Others (like the Freep editorial page) say she's too soft and needs to be another John Engler (are they insane?). Apparently, they live in some sort of fantasy world where all she would need to do is clap her hands loudly and Mike Bishop and Andy Dillon will do whatever they're told. A few months ago, I might have shared some of those opinions. However, after watching our esteemed legislature these past few weeks, I'm increaingly convinced that none of it would have made any difference at all and that we'd be at this point no matter what she did.

Of course Governor Granholm is the captain of the ship, and - even if she doesn't always deserve them - she's bound to take her share of knee-jerk hits from editorial writers angry with "the guv'ment." Such is life. More will follow.

***

There's plenty of other reasons and people who could go on this list but I haven't the time or inclination to go on.

OK. Now here's the real question: how are we going to resolve this? I have some thoughts on that topic that I hope to share soon (ideally tomorrow). Until then, feel free to add yours in the comments below.
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Nice work
Another great post, and I especially agree with your views on the impact of term limits.  Experience in office has a moderating impact on political views, pushing both sides of the spectrum closer to the middle.  It also allows for relationships to be built across party lines that just aren't as possible with such short time frames.

What we are seeing now is a complete lack of trust on both sides of the aisle.  It's hard enough to work with the other side when your political views are so far apart.  It's nearly impossible when you don't like them either.


Not always moderating
term limits are bad for the obvious reasons...it transfers power from elected officials to non-elected players who are in Lansing all the time (Party, bureaucracy, lobbyists, etc.).

What is a moderating force is (coupled with a potential career as a legislator) the possibility of losing the job.

Creating competitive districts are needed in combination with the removal of term limits.

Imagine if 40 state House seats and 20 state Senate seats were a toss up every election...

They would be far more sensitive to the voters wishes as a result. That is what moderates their behavior.


[ Parent ]
Absolutely agree...
...that redistricting reform would do far more to restore democracy. As I alluded to in the post, more Michiganians voted for Democratic state senators than Republican state senators in 2006. Yet somehow Mike Bishop is in charge. If that's not an indictment of the current process I don't know what is.

I do think, for the purposes of a ballot question, the proposals would need to be separate. Confuse people and you lose them.

"HAZEN S. PINGREE...He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE"


[ Parent ]
excellant, excellant post
well rounded, thoughtful and fair.  quite alot of in depth info that we damn well don't get from channel 7 sometimes channel 4 forget Fox 2

End Term Limits?
Thanks for the great post! 

Would it be possible to end term limits? What would have to happen?


A Constitutional Amendment
The legislature would either have to put the question on the ballot or there would have to be a petition drive. There was briefly talk from Bishop (supported by the Governor, as I recall) about a proposal that would extend term limits in exchange for a part-time legislature. But it never went anywhere.

IMHO, if we are ever to do anything about term limits, we need  to go for moral clarity and just go for outright repeal (at least in the legislature). The poo-bahs will tell you it will never sell, however perhaps after this budget fiasco we'll be able to make a more convincing case.

"HAZEN S. PINGREE...He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE"


[ Parent ]
Well said
I would add that Leon Drolet and Saul Anuzis deserve some special attention for making it particularly difficult for weak-kneed Democrats and sensible Republicans to cast the votes they know they should be casting. As far as the state is concerned, these two have been a purely destructive force. It's disgusting.


Drolet
You give that pig's ass too much credit. Anyone who is afraid of that snorting idiot doesn't deserve to sit in the House or Senate.

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson


[ Parent ]
Drolet Part Deux
Sadly, the mainstream media gave Drolet & his porcine pal a lot of coverage -- more than they gave the details of the (non-)budget, the specifics of obstructionist legislators, or the impact of a shutdown.  A budget conference doesn't have much in the way of visuals, ya know!

[ Parent ]
Saulius and the Pigman
I thought about including them. However, it seems to me the real problem with them isn't as much them as it is that the legicritters and the media take them much more seriously than their actual positions warrant. Shit, these guys can't even get a proper pig permit!

"HAZEN S. PINGREE...He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE"

[ Parent ]
This is the reason for all the Black Magic and Voodoo
We raise the dead to speak the truth the living are too scared to embrace.

Good god, does this ever beat the hell out of watching Sam Merrill and Katie O'Mara ask their Capitol reporter and themselves if Michigan's government has ever shut down.

Among the Trees


Did they have an answer?
Heh. Would've liked to have seen that!

"HAZEN S. PINGREE...He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE"

[ Parent ]
dead on (mostly)
Wonderful analysis and particularly agree on term limits. It underlies most of the extraordinary (as opposed to just the usual) political evil going on beneath the surface. 

A few counterpoints..

Governor's coattails don't get all the credit for the House Dem majority. I believe those nasty 'campaign obsessed" House staffers and former Speaker Byrum's political and fundraising strategies might--just might--have accounted for a few seats going and staying D. The House did get majorally screwed up in the House Dems' post-election decisions that split the caucus.  Another term limit inspired debacle that threw a rather rookie leadership team in the game with the governor...

...speaking of which. Jennifer Granholm is truly impressive in so many ways that I have to wonder just how it is her administration has been unable to take better political command in shaping events.  I have some more thoughts on that, but for another time perhaps.



Many thanks
On the coattails...

By no means do I mean to suggest that House Dems didn't work hard or that everything is attributable to the guv's strength last November. However, based on the numbers I've seen, I do not believe Dems would have the majority today were it not for the guv's 14-point win and her strength at the top of the ticket. It's certainly not the only factor, but I would submit an important one.

"HAZEN S. PINGREE...He was the first to warn the people of the great danger threatened by powerful private corporations, and the first to awake to the great inequalities in taxation and to initiate steps for reforms. THE IDOL OF THE PEOPLE"


[ Parent ]
Term Limits...
Let me remind everyone about the term limits initiative.  It was in response to the years of legal corruption by long-term politicos, remember Joe Mack, Dom Jacobetti, etc...?  It was also in response to the ungodly benefits, especially retirement, that they continued to take.
The term limits initiative was menat to level the playing field for challengers, against those who would use the incumbency of their office (largesse, franking, etc...) to keep getting elected.
I appreciate the list of those who voted for the tax cuts, which were accumulative and compounding as the years went by.
I am surprised and disappointed to see some prominent names n the list voting yes, and hope to raise with them why they did so...Mark Schauer; my current Township Supervisor, who I'm sure is not happy with the Lansing stalemate that she helped create; Andy Neumann, the current head of the Bureau of Fire Services.
I also didn't see here those who voted for the SBT phase-out.  Those legislators took 180 million from the coffers each year, and compunded it as well.  The first year was 180 million, the second 360, and so on...

About term limits
I remember Dominic Jacobetti too.  Practically every building in the UP bigger than a log cabin is named after him.  I think he has a highway too (and the UP doesn't have many highways).  Reason was, he brought home the pork for his district.  I'm fairly certain that his infamous use of the state's airplane (or was it a helicopter?) did more to bring on term limits than any other scandal in Lansing.  Good old Dom--always influential.

Thing is, there's a practical solution to term limits.  It's called the ballot box.  Term limits are a paternalistic substitute for an informed public that pays attention and votes, as if to say, "There, there, you don't need to trouble yourselves with all those nasty politics--the statute will take care of it for you."  Blogging has raised the bar for the traditional media (although in Michigan we still have a long way to go), which has brought greater scrutiny on politicians.  I doubt that it would have changed the vote in Jacobetti's district if we had had it then, but with enough media pressure, he could have been booted off the appropriations committee and rendered toothless.

I guess I'm an optimist--I think sunlight is good for your health and truth has power.  Term limits legislation was yet another instance of the kill-government crowd working their mischief during the Clinton years while us liberals were still counting our stock options and deluding ourselves into thinking there was no difference between the parties.  A lot has changed since then.

I'm not that eartha - or that one either


[ Parent ]
Sunlight over corruption bounced a number of baddies last November
Richard Pombo, who more than any other member of Congress deserved to hit the unemployment lines, was bounced out because his challenger and Sierra Club mounted a concerted effort to get rid of him.  They based it, not only idiotic positions on the environment, but on corruption.

That stuff works, and it's more healthy than using the state constitution as a babysitting service.

Among the Trees


[ Parent ]
Good on most of this
particularly the roll call of tax cut voters--good reporting, Guv.

I disagree with you in two areas.  First, the problem with the services tax isn't selling it to the voters.  It never got that far.  There are some very powerful lobbying interests who worked to kill that one, even though it was the fairest to working people and would have made up for nearly all of the deficit.  I'm going to guess that the coup-de-grace was delivered by the democrats' own Michigan Trial Lawyers Association, who are the second or third biggest donors to the party in this state.  Even now, the governor and legislators are keeping almost mum on what a tax on "some services" would be, to avoid triggering a lobbying firestorm and killing the deal.

I also think that while agreeing on the MBT might have been a bad move strategically, it was unavoidable because it takes so long to actually implement.  Unlike a budget, changes to the tax code aren't something you can bang out the night before the deadline--after the legislation passes, there's months of work inside Treasury putting the forms, rules, and internal procedures in place so that things go smoothly for the taxpaying public when the thing is unveiled.

I'm not that eartha - or that one either



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