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Michigan's Primary Irrelevance

by: rich

Wed Oct 10, 2007 at 12:00:00 PM EDT


Leave it to the disorganized Democrats to make a mess of their own presidential primary process.

You’ve all probably heard by now that Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, and Kucinich are withdrawing form the Michigan Democratic Party primary.

Since their candidate has yet to pull out of Michigan’s primary, about the only Democrats happy with this development are those who have already bought their tickets to the Clinton Coronation Ceremony.

The first three presidential primaries are to remain New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. The fourth member of the chosen First Four is Iowa which holds a caucus.

Our legislature and governor wanted to make Michigan’s part in the presidential primary process more relevant. So they changed it from a caucus to a primary, then moved up the date to January 15, which apparently violated the rules set forth by the DNC and RNC.

The DNC, chaired by grassroots/netroots guru Howard Dean, said Florida and Michigan would have to forfeit their delegates at the convention for moving their nominating primaries to before February 5. The Democratic candidates responded by vowing not to campaign in Michigan and Florida. Dean’s 50-state strategy is fast becoming a 48-state strategy.

rich :: Michigan's Primary Irrelevance

The RNC told Michigan Republicans that they would lose half of their nominating delegates at their convention. Despite the penalty, all of the Republicans came to Michigan to debate last night, and all of them continue to campaign here.

As usual, the Democrats can’t seem to make up their minds. The Republicans roll on as if everything were normal regardless of how abnormal things are actually going. The Democrats find ways to hobble themselves by alienating their core supporters. Sounds a lot like the Democratic Party I’ve come to know.

What has brought this about is the ridiculous system by where a handful of small states get first pick at who the party’s nominees will be. So that states with large and diverse populations in terms of race, ethnicity, and demographics like Texas, Illinois, California, Florida, New York, and Michigan are left largely on the sidelines. Because by the time their races come around, the money and media have already anointed solidified behind a candidate. Which is why so many states have moved up their races in order to make themselves more relevant to the nominating process.

Three rural states (NH, IA, SC) and a desert state (NV) are not representative of our country. There isn’t even a real city among those four states.

Las Vegas does not count as a city. It’s a collection of sometimes jaw-dropping spectacles whose sole purpose is to separate you from your money. That’s not a city. That’s a scam.

Detroit has a larger population than Las Vegas. Michigan, with 10.1 million people, is outnumbered by the combined populations of the First Four by only 1 million.

Until the primary process is reformed to make it more equitable for all states, we’re stuck with this hodgepodge mess. Meanwhile, Michigan has been rendered irrelevant on the Democratic side. Even if the state Democratic party does (as has been suggested) cancel the primary, change to a caucus, and move the date back to February, that puts us back where we started: largely ignored except for fundraising and taken for granted.

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Kucinich missed deadline, on Michigan's ballot! (4.00 / 1)
I just read on another blog that indeed Dennis Kucinich will be on the Michigan ballot.  He missed the deadline and will remain on our ballot. 

Good strategy (3.14 / 7)
blaming the DNC and candidates because we can't seem to follow the rules...

Makes everything alright.

Now that we are the victims, we can proceed with screeching about how the Dems suck and how it will cost us the general election

in 3...2...1...


No Surprise About Consequences (3.50 / 6)
Enough whining ... the MDP knows the consequences of using the bumped up primary rather than holding caucuses as they have in the past several cycles, and if they want to be relevant, they'd better plan on setting up caucuses on a date that works with what the DNC has prescribed.

If you want to change the rules, there's a process for that too.

I like the idea of staggered dates for selecting a party's candidate so that the candidates have an incentive to spend quality time in several locales, but I also believe it should be a draw of straws as to who goes first.  I'm not about to say Michigan voters are any less entitled than Californians or Iowans.

When you're told that you have to be home by Midnight or else there'll be punishment, you should expect punishment if you show up at 12:01am.

Get over it.


We did expect punishment (4.00 / 3)
We expected to lose our delegates and to not have the candidates campaign in the state.  We still expected them to keep their names on the ballot.  Keeping Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada as the "deciders" is not acceptable.  The problems and issues faced by those states are not the same as those faced in Michigan.  Michigan deserves a voice in who is the nominee.  We want someone who will address the concerns that are unique to our state.  Now we have been denied the choice and denied any influence.  The unfortunate story here is that the candidates who dropped out are not leaders, they are followers.  They gave into the party bosses who allegedly have a "50 State Strategy."  We don't need any more followers, this country needs strong leadership to take us into a new direction.  I was an Edwards supporter.  Now I don't know who to support.  It is a sad day for the Democratic Party.

[ Parent ]
Not for nothing, but (4.00 / 2)
if Michigan's problems are so unique, then WE aren't representative of the nation, either.  Having an early primary may make us feel good in the short term but by the time Super Tuesday rolls around -- never mind the national convention -- all of that attention will be gone.  It's not realistic to expect national candidates to make a manufacturing recovery plan the centerpiece of their campaigns when many other states have diversified their economies and/or rely on overseas markets.

In any case, with Howard Dean as the guest speaker at the Phil Hart Dinner (10/28)the evening's Q&A should be pretty interesting!


[ Parent ]
Changing the rules. (0.00 / 0)
Jim, what would be that process? Haven't we gotten no where by "following the rules?"

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson


[ Parent ]
Process is to persuade other DNC folks .... (4.00 / 1)
that Michigan should be first if that's what y'all really want to spend your energy and time focusing on.

If you want my "got the hell out of Michigan in 2004" opinion, y'all should give a darn about the Federal level and focus on your County and State elected officials.  Y'all have a bunch of pieces of crap in there right now (with few exceptions) that could care less about Michiganders 100% of the time.


[ Parent ]
i don' t think we've gotten nowhere (4.00 / 2)
but change is slow.  hell, it was less than 30 years ago that the democratic candidate was decided by a handful of people.  And people complain that we (a whole state) aren't early enough this time around.  change will come, there's and agreement for this year, and the agreement in future years will be better.

[ Parent ]
MDP vs. DNC (4.00 / 3)
Blaming the MDP for going against the DNC is like blaming a victim for standing up to injustice.  There is no legitimate reason why a few states should expect to be able to go first every primary season.  Yes, Michigan and Florida broke the DNC's rules, but thank God they did.  Someone had to in order to push the system toward a needed fix in 2012.

I'm surprised to see the "let's blame the MDP" attitude coming from Michigan residents.  I'm guessing it has more to do with their preferred candidate chosing not to be on the January 15 primary ballot than it does than it does with Michigan's decision to buck an injust system.  Perhaps these people should stand up for their state instead.  Michigan Republicans seem to have figured this one out.  Anyone seen the front page of today's Free Press?


Injustice? (4.00 / 3)
Well, since California has the largest population and Democrats soak us for donor money to spend in other states, I think it is an injustice that Californians have to wait until after Michigan, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, and a bunch of other states that have a lower GDP and population than California. 

Pissing matches don't work.


[ Parent ]
Blaming the victim? (4.00 / 2)
That's correct. Blaming the MDP for speaking up and demanding to be heard in a democracy is the most absurd thing I have ever heard. That would be the equivalent of blaming blacks for "making" the police turn fire hoses on them during the civil rights protests.

p.s. How is a party that is supposed to represent "diversity" so opposed to diverse voices being heard???

hmmmmm......

Nothing is easier than solving a problem on the back of the poor. People who don't have lobbyists or clout.


[ Parent ]
I suppose you were responding to me (4.00 / 1)
so here's my answer.

I have no dog in this hunt...so sorry, wrong on that one.

Remember what I was responding to...the original post was about how mean the DNC and the candidates were being to poor little 'ol Michigan for breaking the frigging rules they agreed to...

So yes...suck it up Michigan, you reap what you sow....

As far as giving into this "protect Michigan" crap, I guess I have developed a much broader American approach to electing the next President than worrying about the whining from any one state...

So sue me.


[ Parent ]
We should move to Feb 5th (3.50 / 6)
This is stupid beyond all insanity.  No coordination, no thought to this, it was a dumb, stupid trick.  The legislature should vote to move it to Feb 5th so we can get the candidates to campaign here.  Our problems are too serious to be ignored by this and we shouldn't be resorting to stupid tricks because we're pissed about Iowa and New Hampshire's bullshit.  We have to deal with that a different day.  Getting largely ignored is a disgrace being that we have some of the worst economic problems in the entire country.

Jan. 15 'Beauty Contest,' Feb. 5 Caucus (4.00 / 2)
It's probably already too late to cancel the primary. HOWEVER, IIRC there's nothing in the law that requires the party to parcel out the convention delegates based on the primary results.

Why not leave the primary alone -- a statewide straw poll/beauty contest with no further significance -- and actually dole out the delegates at a Feb. 5 caucus?

The whole thing is FUBAR, but at least this way Michigan Democrats can be fully represented at the convention, and as part of "Tsunami Tuesday" we'll get a little attention.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
Broken System (4.00 / 2)
How does moving to a Feb. 5 caucus help fix a broken and unfair system?  And why are you calling the January 15 primary a beauty contest?

Michigan will get more attention on January 15 than it would if lost in the heap on February 5.  The threat is that the DNC won't seat our delegates.  But I think we all know full well that the winning candidate will agree to seat our delegates at the convention.

Keeping it on January 15 puts pressure on the DNC to fix a broken system.  I don't think it's an embarassment for Michigan to stand up for what's right.  What's embarassing is that some candidates aren't willing to stand up with us.  This experience ought to clarify which candidates have the strength of leadership to be President.


[ Parent ]
It doesn't... (4.00 / 2)
The system will remain broken and unfair. Will a single-party caucus get lost in the Feb. 5 Tsunami Tuesday? Sure. But it's better than nothing, which is what we as a state are looking at now. At least a caucus will ensure all of Michigan's delegates are awarded.

A January 15 'primary' consisting of Clinton, Dodd and Gravel (with Kucinich pretending he doesn't wanna be on the ballot) is an irrelevancy with a foregone conclusion. Might as well cross over and help pick the GOP winner (just like so many Democrats did in 2000 when they gave McCain his biggest win against Bush).



"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


[ Parent ]
Feb. 5 Caucus Just as Irrelevant (0.00 / 0)
I don't see what difference it makes adding a few more candidates to the ballot.  We all know who is going to win Michigan anyway.

[ Parent ]
i'll write in northernlib (4.00 / 2)
for amazing prognosticating powers... they would have kept us out of iraq.

[ Parent ]
Just having fun... (4.00 / 1)
Jon, please know that I'm just having fun with you.  I respect the dissent among Democrats.  It's healthy for the Democratic process to put the frontrunner up to a challenge.  I have empathy for the Edwards and Obama fans on the blog as well.  I understand what it feels like to be supporting a losing candidate.  I just don't think people should take out their frustrations on Mark Brewer or the Michigan Democratic Party.

[ Parent ]
Wow! (4.00 / 5)
"I have empathy for the Edwards and Obama fans on the blog as well.  I understand what it feels like to be supporting a losing candidate."

That's quite a statement!  Very telling.

Julie--who dislikes the bitter taste of arrogance

To prepare for when your life flashes before your eyes, make sure it's fun to watch.


[ Parent ]
Arrogance (0.00 / 0)
You could call it arrogance, or you could call it disappointment over the choice by some of the candidates not to participate in our primary.  What I would call arrogance is expecting Michigan to support a candidate who would foresake our great state.  I am not only happy that Clinton decided to stay on the Michigan ballot, but happy that Dodd did as well.

[ Parent ]
Ignored (4.00 / 2)
Moving to Feb. 5th will get us......largely ignored.

The end of the human race will be that it will eventually die of civilization.

 - Ralph Waldo Emerson


[ Parent ]
no, I think Feb 5th will be a scramble (4.00 / 1)
Hillary is getting cocky but not careless and Edwards sill has a good shot at winning in Iowa.  Obama can also squeak by into second. Hillary will need a must win in NH and then I think the rest will be a scramble and MI delegates could prove crucial in a full blown nomination fight. 

And if Hillary wins Iowa, NH, Nevada and South Carolina then Feb 5th is a beauty contest and Jan. 15th would be just as irrelvant.
So I completely disagree, work within the DNC rules, make lemonade from this sour batch of lemons and give MI democrats the say we deserve.  And give MI the attention(good) we deserve.


[ Parent ]
Scramble indeed (4.00 / 2)
Rewind 4 years ago ... Howard Dean was the all but certain Democratic candidate instead of Lurch (a la Adams Family).  People are really fickle.

I am curious what the folks against womens' health care rights will do about Giuliani if he becomes the Republican nominee.  Hmm... is Pat Robertson warming up for another go?  God help us.


[ Parent ]
I think it is apparent that (0.00 / 0)
Clintons are bad for Michigan, Obama can't stop attacking the autos, and Edwards doesn't matter.  There isn't one candidate running for President from either Party that I want to vote for.  I think we need to zip our wallets.  I think we need to focus on the state and Lieberman every freakin DINO we can reach.  As far as voting for President, I am writing in Bernie Sanders or Hugo Chavez. 

[ Parent ]
Secretary of State and Kucinich (4.00 / 1)
Michigan law clearly outlines the procedure to be followed if a candidate wishes not to appear on the ballot," explained Ken Silfven, a spokesman for the office. "An affidavit has to be signed by the candidate and notarized. The first affidavit received by our office was signed by the Kucinich campaign manager. While the second affidavit received in our office did contain the candidate's signature, it was not notarized."

Silfven said the first affidavit was time-stamped by his office at 3:02 p.m. -- roughly an hour prior to the filing deadline.

"At that point our office contacted the campaign and explained the procedure and why the document was not acceptable," he said.

The second affidavit was time-stamped at 3:38 p.m.

Silfven added that Kucinich will appear on the state's Democratic primary ballot. The only way the candidate could be removed is through litigation, he said.

Attempts to contact the campaign both yesterday and this


wow (4.00 / 2)
that's amazing.  once upon a time i could have voted for kucinich (mostly for his balls when he was the mayor of cleveland), but not anymore.  how can you vote for a dude that can even quit a race successfully.

[ Parent ]
Latest Polling Number (0.00 / 0)
The Gallup poll that was taken over 10/4-10/7 and released this morning shows:

Clinton 47%
Obama 26%
Edwards 11%
Richardson 4%

Obviously, this was taken before Obama, Edwards and Richardson annouced they will quit Michigan.

Other early states:

In Iowa, Clinton has a 6% lead.
In New Hampshire, Clinton has a 19.8% lead.
In South Carolina, Clinton has a 13% lead.
In Florida, Clinton has a 25.4% lead.


Clarification (0.00 / 0)
The first set of numbers were for Michigan, not national numbers.

[ Parent ]
Reform the Process (4.00 / 5)
So you must already have box seat tickets to the Clinton Coronation Ceremony, eh?

This primary mess is not about Clinton and whether or not she's already been deemed the inevitable Democratic party candidate for President.

It's about an inequitable primary system that has gone on for far too long. Our state's move was clumsy and desperate. Understandable, given the unfairness of the current primary system. But still does not make our state's voice more relevant.

The Democrats, by not campaigning here and some now pulling out, are punishing us for not following the rules, but also sending us mixed signals.

Dean and Brewer need to have a sit-down soon to fix it.

The only good that can come out of the current chaos that is the inexplicable order of presidential state primaries is that it should be reformed in time for 2012.


[ Parent ]
Agree (0.00 / 0)
I agrree with your points except Michigan's move benig clumsy and desperate.  I'm proud that Michigan, along with Florida, through a wrench in the gears of this broken primary system.  I'd like to see a 10-week system with 1 state a week from each of the 5 regions (Northeast, South, Midwest, Plains and Rockies, and West).  They can have a drawing in each region for spots 1-10.  The primaries would start in mid-April and go through June.

In terms of the Clintons, I didn't come around to supporting Bill until September 1992.  Harkin was my guy at first and then Jerry Brown.  I was assimilated into the Hillary Camp when I realized a couple months ago that Richardson wasn't going to be able to develop a competitive campaign.  Obama will be a great Presidential candidate once he's been tested a bit more.


[ Parent ]
Vote for a Liberal! (0.00 / 0)
Your userID has the word "lib" in it yet your candidate refuses to say she is a liberal. Remember when, at one of the debates, she was asked if she considers herself a liberal and she talked around it. She said she is a "progressive." I am not going to vote for a Democrat who will not admit they are a liberal. Is northernprogressive taken? ;-)

Success is not final, failure is not fatal. - Winston Churchill  

[ Parent ]
Liberal (0.00 / 0)
Why would she be that stupid to give the Republican Party ammunition to use against her?  Are you one of those people that gets annoyed when Democrats running in marginal district don't put "Democrat" on their yardsigns?  Hillary is running to win the election in November 2008.  She's not out to prove to the left half of the Democratic Party that she's a liberal.  Truth be told, Hillary is more moderate than me and most of the people on this blog.  That's why Republicans fear her.

[ Parent ]
Different regions, Different meanings (0.00 / 0)
I laughed at the comment because the word "Progressive" is associated with the really far left folks in San Francisco.  I think the liberals are to the right of the self-named progressives in this town.  The liberals want something done about homeless folks urinating and defecating on the sidewalks while the progressives in San Francisco say leave the homeless alone and build more free housing for them.  I wonder which side Hillary sits on that debate .... oh well, its a local problem for sure.  Back to my reading...

[ Parent ]
Changing Status Quo (4.00 / 4)
I have no problem trying to change rules or making our state more relevant, but the MDP's action neither; in fact, it did the opposite. It didn't change the rules and it made Michigan completely irrelevant. Now those wanting to participate in the process must hope the MDP begs forgiveness or they'll have to vote for a candidate with no real shot at being President (Hillary's opponent or Ron Paul).

As my facebook group says..."The Electoral College Blows." That's really what it comes down to...and outdated system of electing a President.


What Now? (4.00 / 2)
Go to your County Party meetings and press resolutions to have the MDP decline to participate in a 1/2 the candidates beauty contest and instead choose to stick with the DNC-OKed 9 February Caucus.  Are attempt to force the issue has failed, it's time the Party and Granholm accept that.  Now we'll see how much power Brewer really has.

Steve Pestka for Congress

All these opinions... (1.00 / 3)
and theories are nice, but like it or not, Clinton and Obama are unelectable in the general election, so a Michigan primary is certainly irrelevant  She is a lightning rod for all of the hate still festering from her husband's two terms and I don't believe the country will elect either a woman or an Afro-American in 2008.

If either wins the nomination, and especially if they share the ticket, the Republican nominee is in by a landslide, the war and the Bill of Rights be damned.


Painfully wrong (0.00 / 0)
Obama would win over any of the twit on the reichwing who are currently getting their knickers in a twist over who would kill the mostest brown people the fastest, who would burn the Bill of Rights the most thoroughly, and who would cut Richie Rich's taxes the most.  Hillary would win.  Period.  She does not play to lose--and that's a good thing.  She and Bill will do whatever it takes to win; hit them, and they'll club you.  They don't play this Monday-Dukakis-Kerry game of ingoring the lies and chicanery of the right.  Don't get me wrong--neither Obama nor Clinton is my favorite candidate, but I do think they would win, and probably in a landslide.

[ Parent ]
I know this sucks but...... (4.00 / 2)
Michigan is taking a massive step for democracy by moving the primary. We may not be able to vote for our candidate but we may very well be the state that topples the misrepresentation of so many Americans. We knew it would not be easy to change an institution like the Democratic primary. It is not suprising at all that we are in chaos because serious change often takes a little bit of chaos. We may not get to vote for our candidate and our state may become a moot point but bottom line is it is for the better of our party and country. This has to happen and I hope that the party does it every primary until the DNC can come up with something more representative of the nation.

Stay tough Mark Brewer


"Them godam out-staters" (0.00 / 0)
  ...I think that putting down Iowa/NH/SC/Nevada as losers,

"...Three rural states (NH, IA, SC) and a desert state (NV) are not representative of our country. There isn't even a real city among those four states.

Las Vegas does not count as a city. It's a collection of sometimes jaw-dropping spectacles whose sole purpose is to separate you from your money. That's not a city. That's a scam. ..."

, is not really something we want to do here. It plays into the very worst stereotypes that people have about Midwesterners: parochial, ignorant, xenophobic, "Da Bears", etc. Can Michigan really afford to do that, especially at this point?


Some Facts and a Piece of Humor (4.00 / 1)
I didn't call them losers. I said they are not representative of our country in terms of race, ethnicity, demographics, and the mix of rural, suburban, and urban areas. Check the Census bureau site for yourself.

Las Vegas is still not a real city. ;)


[ Parent ]
Update (0.00 / 0)
NPR is reporting that Governor Granholm is disappointed in the decision of several Democratic candidates who were struggling in the polls to quit Michigan but that she finds no reason to alter the January 15 primary date.  Mark Brewer is expected to move forward with the January 15 primary.  Granholm is likely to endorse a Presidential candidate next week and that candidate will be...  Hillary Clinton.  Kucinich is widely expected to be the anti-Hillary protest candidate on the Michigan ballot (that he tried, but failed to remove himself from).

Granholm's Statement (0.00 / 0)
Gov. Granholm said, "Suffice to say I'm very disappointed in the candidates who have chosen to back out."

When asked if Michigan would back down from the Jan. 15 Primary, Gov. Granholm said, "No.  We have made a statement in Michigan that we're going to challenge to states get to determine who the Democratic nominee is." 

She added Iowa and New Hampshire voters do not represent the interests of Michigan residents.  "The Democratic National Committee has got to fix the system.  The move this year by Michigan sets up a system for change in future elections."


[ Parent ]
So Let's See If I Got This Straight... (4.00 / 4)
Michigan's Democratic Governor and Democratic State House (in conjunction with the GOP State Senate) passed a law which results in:

* alienating the state Dems from the national Dems

* giving four Dem candidates an excuse to avoid Michigan

* keeping the major Dem candidates from spending millions of dollars in the state

* using tax dollars ($10M according to Mark Grebner, who would know) to conduct a primary that will be an excellent source of information... about Republican voters.

* giving that $10M worth of taxpayer-provided info -- which according to Grebner is worth about $5M -- to the Republican party, enabling them to bypass non-GOP political vendors... like Grebner.

So answer me this:  What benefit (if any) do either the Michigan or national Dems get out of all this?

"I never did give anybody hell. I just told the truth and they thought it was hell." -- Harry S Truman


Benefit to Michigan (0.00 / 0)
I hardly think this will alientating Michigan Dems from national Dems.  Michigan and Florida have taken the lead in exposing a primary system other states recognize is unfair and dysfunctional.

The Dems who are avoiding Michigan are doing so because they know they have no chance of winning in an open primary.  For the past nine months, one candidate has had at least double the support of the second highest candidate and that lead has been growing in recent weeks.

Likewise, we're not giving up millions of dollars in campaign advertising for the primary.  Candidates don't dump millions of dollars into non-competitive states.

The tax dollars that will be used for the January election would be spent anyway.  The Presidential primaries will not be the only item on the ballot.  A host of other measures such as Constitutional clean-up language, a tax alternative and special local elections will be on the ballot.

The $5 million dollar value of that date would only be true if the Republicans didn't have much of that data and if it was purely Republican voters.  We all recognize that many Democrats will vote for someone like Ron Paul on the Republican ballot just like Dems did in 2000 when our choices were Gore or Bradley.  As much as I like Mark Grebner, we don't base our decision on whether or not to have a primary on the impact of his business.

The benefit Michigan gets out of having a primary on January 15 is that it will be the first large state to hold a primary and will receive far more national exposure than if it held a caucus on February 9 along with a large number of other states.  It will also push the DNC to reform the primary system for the 2012 election.

The idea that Michigan's delegates won't actually get seated later in the summer is laughable.  The nominee would never risk alienating voters in a large blue state by allowing something so stupid to happen.

I get a feeling that the great majority of people opposing a Jan. 15 primary in favor of a caucus are doing so because they believe that a caucus will give Edwards a better chance than an open primary would.  It's clear from reading repeated polls over the past six months that Edward's is in a very distant third place.  His decision to abandon Michigan's primary for strategic reasons shows what the man is all about.

Granholm, Dillon and Mark Brewer have made the right choice.  We should stand tall for Michigan and stick with an open January 15 primary.


[ Parent ]
Your repeated assertion that Edwards and Obama (4.00 / 1)
withdrew because they didn't think they would win is both insulting and annoying.  Where is your proof of this?

Polling (0.00 / 0)
There have been dozens of polls conducted over the past six months of likely Michigan Democratic primary voters.  They have consistently showed Clinton with a double digit lead in first place over Obama and Edwards well behind him.  I'm sure you can find various sites on the internet that show the polls.  realclearpolitics.com, although a site biased toward Republicans, nonetheless, has an archive of polls, who conducted them and how they were conducted.  Enjoy.

For the record, I don't put a lot of stock in any single poll, but a variety of polls over a period of time is very telling.  And what we're being told is that, like it or not, Hillary has a lock on the Democratic nomination unless some major factor were to disrupt the race.  Anyone familiar with Hillary will recognize that a Howard Dean style self-damning incidient isn't likely.


no (4.00 / 1)
polling does NOT predict future election outcomes.  also there are a lot of issues with how likely primary voters are selected in polls.

Check out my mediocre blog.

[ Parent ]
Polling (0.00 / 0)
Polls aren't exact, that's for certain.  But they are very precise in showing trends, and the trends they show in the Democratic Presidential primaries are unmistakeable.

Polls aren't cheap.  If they weren't effective, campaigns, the news media and other organizations wouldn't be paying to have them done.


[ Parent ]
Polls (4.00 / 1)
We're still 3 months away from the first primaries and caucus. A lot can happen between now and then. There is nothing inevitable about Hillary.

[ Parent ]
Yeah (4.00 / 1)
Just ask President Dean . . .

[ Parent ]
Exactly .... (0.00 / 0)
I'm surprised I have read too many conspiracy theorists about this being a way for the Clinton campaign to save money for other states where she can't get the elected officials to basically lock in a win for her.

[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)
I agree, but people were saying the same thing about Hillary three months ago and three months before that.  The convential wisdom was that Hillary was polling well due to name recognition but there was little chance she would be the frontrunner by Labor Day.  All summer we kept hearing about Obama.  The momentum that is so crucial for any candidate at this point in the primary season, just isn't materializing.  If anyone has momentum, it would be Clinton, who's lead is widening in the polls and who's negetives are shrinking.

[ Parent ]
Gore 2008 (4.00 / 1)
And then Al Gore steps into the picture..

[ Parent ]
of course polls are useful and effective (0.00 / 0)
i'm just saying that they're not predictive of future outcomes, which is what you're implying and a mistake that a lot of people make.  trends change too.

Check out my mediocre blog.

[ Parent ]
Kucinich (0.00 / 0)
Kucinich should stay on the ballot...he might "win" and he has nothing to lose anyway.


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- Michigan Coalition for Progress
- Michigan Messenger
- MI Idea (Michigan Equality)
- Planned Parenthood Advocates of Michigan
- Rainbow Mittens
- The Upper Hand (Progress Michigan)

Upper Peninsula:
- Keweenaw Now
- Lift Bridges and Mine Shafts
- Save the Wild UP

Western Michigan:
- Great Lakes Guy
- Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott
- Mostly Sunny with a Chance of Gay
- Public Pulse
- West Michigan Politics
- West Michigan Rising
- Windmillin'

Mid-Michigan:
- Among the Trees
- Blue Chips (CMU College Democrats Blog)
- Christine Barry
- Conservative Media
- Far Left Field
- Graham Davis
- Honest Errors
- ICDP:Dispatch (Isabella County Democratic Party Blog)
- Liberal, Loud and Proud
- Livingston County Democratic Party Blog
- MI Blog
- Mid-Michigan DFA
- Pohlitics
- Random Ramblings of a Somewhat Common Man
- Waffles of Compromise
- YAF Watch

Flint/Bay Area/Thumb:
- Bay County Democratic Party
- Blue November
- East Michigan Blue
- Genesee County Young Democrats
- Greed, Eggs, and Ham
- Jim Stamas Watch
- Meddling Outsider
- Saginaw County Democratic Party Blog
- Stone Soup Musings
- Voice of Mordor

Southeast Michigan:
- A2Politico
- arblogger
- Arbor Update
- Congressman John Conyers (CD14)
- Mayor Craig Covey
- Councilman Ron Suarez
- Democracy for Metro Detroit
- Detroit Skeptic
- Detroit Uncovered (formerly "Fire Jerry Oliver")
- Grosse Pointe Democrats
- I Wish This Blog Was Louder
- Kicking Ass Ann Arbor (UM College Democrats Blog)
- LJ's Blogorific
- Mark Maynard
- Michigan Progress
- Motor City Liberal
- North Oakland Dems
- Oakland Democratic Politics
- Our Michigan
- Peters for Congress (CD09)
- PhiKapBlog
- Polygon, the Dancing Bear
- Rust Belt Blues
- Third City
- Thunder Down Country
- Trusty Getto
- Unhinged

MI Congressional
District Watch Blogs:
- Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood (CD08)

MI Campaigns:
MI Democratic Orgs:
MI Progressive Orgs:
MI Misc.:
National Alternative Media:
National Blogs:
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