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Stuart Rothenberg: Michigan one of five states to decide presidential race

by: Eric B.

Thu Jul 17, 2008 at 10:39:08 AM EDT


Not that most of us didn't already know this, but...

It’s far too soon to know whether the presidential contest will blow open into a laugher or remain competitive from now until Election Day. But if the race stays close until the end, a mere four or five states are likely to tell you whom the next occupant of the Oval Office will be.

Right now, those states look to be Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, Nevada and Michigan.

There are a few Michigan-specific paragraphs.  Summed up, he picks Michigan over Wisconsin and Pennsylvania because of our long-time economic downturn and says that because we have a weak Democratic governor that people might want to try something new.

That seems like an awfully big stretch to me.  I mean, I don't know anyone who actually blames our economic woes on the governor.  But, I only live here (and have, for the better part of the last three decades), rather that dispense wisdom from afar.  So, I guess the question is really, "What do I know?"

Eric B. :: Stuart Rothenberg: Michigan one of five states to decide presidential race
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Throw the Bums Out (0.00 / 0)
I think there's more of a throw-the-bums out mentality than an anti-democratic mentality in the state.  People are frustrated with the legislature as a group as well as with the Governor.  

There's a similar trend nationally with Congress and the President, which should benefit Obama, coming from the non-Bush party.  I think this mentality also serves the change image portrayed by Obama much better than the old-reliable message coming from the McCain campaign.  


Frustration all around... (0.00 / 0)
It seems like the conventional wisdom forming around this is that this will be a battleground state because both the governor and the president are unpopular.  Seems very much like the conventional wisdom going into the gubernatorial race's last week two years ago -- the margin of error and the uncommitted vote, when combined, technically put the race as neck-and-neck, so it was naturally reported as neck-and-neck.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
2010 instead of 2008 (4.00 / 1)
I suspect that Democrats will have a much harder time hanging on to the governor's office in 2010 than they will carrying the state for Obama this year.

The lack of experience that is Obama's onus is less a burden than the lack of achievemnt on the part of Gov. Granholm will be for the Democratic candidate for her office--especially if that candidate is Mr. Cherry.


She does great stuff..... (0.00 / 0)
Governor Jennifer M. Granholm today announced that the Michigan Economic Development Corporation (MEDC) is helping 13 companies grow in Detroit, Kalamazoo, Troy, Novi, Clawson, Allegan, Lowell, Midland, Auburn Hills, Huron Township, and Gibraltar.  In addition, the MEDC is backing five redevelopment projects in Lansing, East Lansing, Flint, and Redford Township.  Combined, the projects are expected to create 6,917 new jobs and generate $231.2 million in new investment in the state.  http://www.michigan.gov/gov/0,...  

The G Lakes bill, downtowns, defending cuts to schools, nobody can say she isn't trying.  Blame?  I say it belongs to do nothing but obstruct and steal Republicans and Bill Clinton for passing NAFTA, which was a really a crappy model on which to establish globalization.  Granholm just isn't scrappy enough, and the press in MI doesn't give her her due.

If I'm going to hold anyone accountable for the mess this state is in it will be Clinton, Engler, Blue Dogs, Bishop, Stabenow/Levin and then Granholm.   All in that order.  


[ Parent ]
Weak governor? (4.00 / 2)
Granholm certainly isn't benefiting from Michigan's hard times; any state with problems like ours has plenty of folks calling for their governor's head. Yet when the voters last had the opportunity to replace her, she won with a comfortable margin. It seams despite all the criticism that Michiganders aren't willing to replace her with just anybody, which says to me that she isn't as weak as outsider pundits seem to think.  


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