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New poll: Bolger down 4; Dems to sink $500,000 into race they expect to lose

by: Eric B.

Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 19:15:34 PM EDT


MIRS.

A new poll by the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner shows House Speaker Jase BOLGER (R-Marshall) trailing his little-known Democratic opponent in the 63rd Districts by 4 points, which is within the margin of error. Polling results obtained by MIRS have Bolger at 45 percent and Bill FARMER at 49 percent. This is in keeping with a MIRS/Practical Political Consulting poll this month that showed Bolger up by 3 points, 51.5 to 48.5 percent, which is within the margin of error (See "Bolger's Lead In 63rd Within Margin Of Error," 9/11/12).

...snip...

"This is the same old story," Bolger spokesman Ari ADLER said. "Democrats are going to do polls that come out the way they want them to ...

We break into this story for this...

Chambers’ project started in July after he noticed an ABC News/Washington Post poll that “just didn’t look right.”

We now go from the Koo-koo for cocoa puffs conservative who didn't like the way polls looked to him, and created his own reality that conservatives everywhere have grabbed onto and owned back to Ari Adler, talking about how polls that show his guy down are fabrications of Democrats who just want to create their own reality.

and they're going to talk about them. ...

...snip, moving on, we see that MIRS phones in the illusion that it is anything more than a glorified stenographer service for those inside the Lansing bubble.

Asked if he wanted to add anything, Adler said, ...

Oh, who the hell cares. When you've gotten to that point, you already know that the guy has nothing of real value to add, and that he's just giving "his side of the story" whether that side is based on fact or the elves who sat down to have a bowl of shredded wheat with him for breakfast.

The story goes on to mention that Democrats plan to sink a bunch of money into the race, even though they expect to ultimately lose. This keen approach to strategy, by the way, is probably what gave us Ruth Johnson as secretary of state. But, that's another story. 

Eric B. :: New poll: Bolger down 4; Dems to sink $500,000 into race they expect to lose
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Why
Why would you not sink  money into an obviously competitive race when your opponents are clearly on the ropes?  Dems don't have anything to lose, this time.  The Republicans are on the defense.  This isn't an off-year/non-presidential election.  I say it's time to sink this clown if only to show that you can't get away with breaking the law even if his party ends up staying in power.  This has got to be one of the most wounded Michigan Speakers in recent history.

They have $500,000 to lose
Remember 2010, when the Democrats put a bunch of money into the flailing candidacy of Virg Bernero, and then lost a Secretary of State's race they might have won with that money? Yeah, that. If you think you're going to lose, why not put that money into winning races that could get Jase Bolger fired as House Speaker by putting his party in the minority?

If they win, it's a huge payoff. If they lose and don't win control of the House, it's further evidence that the Michigan Democratic Party is the modern, political equivalent of the Washington Generals.

Among the Trees


[ Parent ]
According to whom?
...even though they expect to ultimately lose.

Since I can't see the original article, I can't tell if it cites a source for MDP believing we are going to lose in the 63rd. We have a great candidate, a wounded incumbent, polling that shows what it shows, all Adler squid impersonations notwithstanding, and money.

Then again, your conclusions about 2010 are easy to make in retrospect. It is not nearly as clear in prospect where to put money. This has become a high profile race, and as far as I can see, we have as good a shot as in other competitive races.  


[ Parent ]
MIRS
I can't simply copy and paste entire MIRS articles for a variety of reasons, but this was down in the article:
However, Democratic sources in the district warn MIRS that the seat, which has a 57-percent GOP base, will be very tough for Dems to win. They believe this is a backlash to the scandal, but Bolger will pull through because of the conservative lean of voters in the 63rd.

The bit about 2010 wasn't exactly hindsight, either. We knew what the polling told us. We knew Virg was toast from the get-go. Hell, most of us expected to lose the governor's mansion simply on the grounds that people tend to shift party control of an executive after two terms anyway. But, we knew he was going to get killed, knew he was going to get killed in epic fashion, and knew we had a Secretary of State and Supreme Court candidates who were very close ... and rather than devoting resources to them, the Democratic Party put them behind the flailing top of the ticket.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
What about the guy who COMMITTED the Treachery?
All Bolger did was aid and abet what Turncoat Roy Schmidt had already decided to do -- stab his constituents, his House colleagues and his own staff in their collective backs with his stunt back on 15 May.

Where's the MDP cash for Winnie Brinks, who succeeded in a write-in effort to be able to challenge Turncoat Roy on the November ballot?

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison


Win
I'm not sure where all of the money is going at the minute, but generally, you don't sink money into a race you've already won, and far as I can tell from what I heard, Brinks has that race looked down.

[ Parent ]
Agreed about Brinks/Schmidt
Even the R's are saying he is DONE politically.  They just aren't publicly throwing him under the bus.  

And it's not the MDP directing this and leaking the polls, the leaks are coming from the House Caucus clearly.

Some of the leaking may be strategic.  If Bolger is worried about covering his own ass his Leadership Fund money (largest one in Lansing, by the way) stops going to fund other races and stays in his district. Which means less negative commercials against our candidates in places where we could take seats back.  



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