Clean Freep sweep in contested Congressional races

I look forward...

...to calling Gary McDowell congressman, and hope the same for the other two.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 00:25:08 AM UTC

Good opportunities this year

Turnout is going to be critical in the 1st. And strong turnout will also help us take back some of those State House seats, as well as helping Obama, Stabenow, and the rest of the ticket. Coordination is the key!

In the 3rd, look for a crossover vote. Republicans are disgusted with Amash, so they will turn to someone who actually knows a thing or two about public service and seeking the common good - Pestka. That the DCCC hasn't made this a higher-priority race is kind of surprising.

We're lucky that we got Dr. Taj in the 11th. He knows how to win tough elections, being elected to the Canton Township Board in 2008.

In the 6th, Mike O'Brien is on the air, and now the DCCC has added the 6th to its Emerging Races list. Like Bolger, Upton is in the unfamiliar territory of having to defend what should be a safe seat.

In the 8th, Lance Enderle is scaring Mike Rogers. Enderle is a champion for the progressive cause, and by staying true to his values, he is making Mike Rogers work for a seat that would otherwise be his.

Some of these races are better opportunities for us than others, but the fact is, we're making Republicans work harder than they should - diverting their resources and attention away from other contests.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Tue Oct 16, 2012 at 05:24:57 AM UTC

Rose-colored glasses

I think you're dead-on about the 3rd/Pestka. But much too generous to Taj in 11 and Enderle in 8. A victory to get on the Canton Twp Board (in 2008, no less) means nothing in terms of knowing how to win tough elections on the scale of a Congressional race. And Lance Enderle is certainly not scaring Mike Rogers. There is no indication of that anywhere.  

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by: MIChange @ Wed Oct 24, 2012 at 17:06:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Couple of thoughts

The 11th is competitive enough that the American Medical Association PAC is putting $250,000 toward the race. That's huge. Is it a toss-up? Not at the moment, but it should be one to watch in terms of an upset.

Now the 8th isn't on many people's list of competitive seats, and if Lance were to win, that would be one of the most astonishing upsets since Engler. But that shouldn't take away from the kind of campaign Lance is running.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Sat Oct 27, 2012 at 06:52:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Enderle = Bob Alexander

While the 8th isn't completely safe for Mike with Lansing, East Lansing, and Okemos, Enderle isn't scaring Mike any more or less than Bob Alexander did. Similar type of campaign, although styles are different. He'll get the base dems and anti-Mike vote. Mike will probably narrowly lose Ingham County by 3-5%, and win big in Livingston and North Oakland.

Pestka worries me. That's a tough matchup for Amash. NRA also gave Pestka (A-) a higher rating than Amash (B-).

I actually wouldn't be shocked if Bentivolio beat Taj in the new 11th, but lost to Curson on the same day in the old MI-11. Why? Westland, Wayne, Belleville, and most importantly demographic changes in Van Buren Township and Redford.  

"He who would trade liberty for some temporary security, deserves neither liberty nor security" - Benjamin Franklin

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by: Republican Michigander @ Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 13:36:13 PM UTC