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One term nerd

by: Eric B.

Tue Dec 18, 2012 at 11:48:57 AM EST

New polling out has benevolent overlord Rick Michigan down, and one of the nation's least popular governors, down 28 points since signing off on Amway Guy's glorious plan to boost the state's economy by shafting its workers.

We now find Snyder as one of the most unpopular Governors in the country. Only 38% of voters approve of him to 56% who disapprove. There are only 2 other sitting Governors we've polled on who have a worse net approval rating than Snyder's -18. He's dropped a net 28 points from our last poll on him, the weekend before the election, when he was at a +10 spread (47/37).

There's not much doubt that it's the right to work law and his embrace of other actions by the Republican legislature that are driving this precipitous drop in Snyder's popularity. Only 41% of voters in the state support the right to work legislation, while 51% are opposed to it. If voters got to decide the issue directly only 40% of them say they would vote to keep the law enacted, while 49% would vote to overturn it. This comes on the heels of voters overturning Snyder's signature emergency managers law last month. The simple reality is that Michigan voters like unions- 52% have a favorable opinion of them to only 33% with a negative one.

The remedy for this, as we can expect, will be to make sure that the state's electorate has less say in who manages its elected government.

Eric B. :: One term nerd
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One term nerd | 20 comments
The Dems
Have been given the opportunity of a lifetime.

To me the most interesting item from the PPP poll is that Dems lead the generic ballot for the legislature 56-32. Even if all of the undecideds and no answers went for the Reps, that would give, by my count, 27 potentially winnable seats in the Senate and 71 in the House.

Not that the Dems should target all of these seats, mind you. Part of wisdom, after all, is knowing when and where to pick your fights. If I were them, however, I'd target enough seats (and enough in the Detroit burbs) to be able to ignore the inevitable ConservaDems when the vote comes to (finally) put sexual orientation in the civil rights laws or loosen the restrictions on abortion.

In just the last few days my partner and I have seen an ad on TV touting "Freedom to Work", and tonight at dinnertime we got a robocall from the Benevolent Overlord. Somehow I'm guessing he wasn't just wanting to wish us a Merry Christmas.

The Dems have to get to work making the Rep label toxic in every corner of this state that isn't Livingston or Ottawa counties or the Grand Rapids burbs. There's plenty to choose from in the record to turn voters all over the state against the Reps. The Dems have to keep this front and center over the next two years.

They also need to develop voter targeting and GOTV organizations so they can actually win the winnable districts.

Oh and
Regarding the One-term Nerd, at this point I'd put some money behind my comment last week. Sometime next year he'll basically say, "My job is done here, I'm gonna retire to LaJolla, see you suckers later."

[ Parent ]
If he'd wanted to leave in '14, Snyder would have VETOED RTW, not signed it
Playing to the base and working to prevent a primary challenge are two strong indicators that Rick Michigan is far from done with us.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
Why Snyder finally signed RTW
I have a slightly different take on Nerd's final decision:  I think he was tired of screwing around on twenty different lame duck session issues, and asked the GOP whether if he signed RTW, they'd promise to back him on each and every one of the remaining issues he was trying to push through.

Note the remarkable GOP support for Metro area public transit.  The sudden disappearance of nitpicking over the Detroit Lighting thingy.  I think Snyder realized he could either fight twenty battles simultaneously, and lose about 18 of them, or he could give the wingers RTW and spend the rest of the holiday season signing bills.  And those bills wouldn't have unacceptable gotchas, because he would be able to specify what amendments were adopted.

I wouldn't be surprised if Nerd announces fifteen months from now that his agenda has been adopted, and it's time to be travelling on.  He'll reserve that decision until a month before the filing deadline, to avoid stretching his own lame duck-ness.  But there's a good chance he'll be looking at a bitter primary, followed by a bitter general election.  And why put up with it?

The main thing he wanted to do was shift taxes away from business and the wealthy, and he's done that in spades.  The second thing was to break the backs of public employee unions, and that's taken care of too.  The bridge.  Reforming Detroit's budget mess.  He doesn't really care about guns, abortion, education, gays, or voting rights, so what is there left that really interests him?

Sticking around for another four years may not be a very attractive prospect, compared to re-joining his old pirate crew in search of business booty.

[ Parent ]
What we knew
I'm glad the data backs out what we instictively said when he passed RTW(for less).

Albeit, his numbers will recover because Michigan will recover like it's been since the last year of the Granholm administration.  He's got more than a year to turn around his personal numbers.  But - and it's a big but - what's also clear is that he will only recover so much ground.  He has irrevocably broken his winning coalition with Right to Work.  I don't know how he didn't see that RTW is a flashing red line on this side of the aisle.

This is an opening.  We better take it and run with it.  Again, the economy will continue to get better because there is no option since we hit rock bottom long ago.  We need to show that this is not the result of right-to-work or robbing old people's pensions or a business tax cut.

And not let fucking Virg Bernero run
The worst conclusion anyone could draw from this is that because Virg Bernero did best among the Democratic contenders that he ought to be the candidate.

Among the Trees

[ Parent ]
I agree
wholeheartedly! In fact, Virg's numbers are considerably low considering he's the only one of those polled who has run statewide. Considering who has run for what, and when, and where, it appears that Gretchen Whitmer is best poised to lead the Dems ticket. Of course, this is one poll, 2 years out. And a lot of the results are reactionary to the lame duck session which, unfortunately, will be forgotten by many by the time '14 rolls around. But it provides food for thought!

[ Parent ]
Is it just me...
has Gretchen never won a tough race? I say that with the most respect for her but let's face it, she is a bomb thrower from Lansing. Being a lefty I like her and I think most other dem activst do but I do not see how she wins statewide. She's about one step better then Virg but it only takes about 30 seconds for the Elephants to make her into the second coming of Jenny.

[ Parent ]
By 2014 "the second coming of Jenny" might not be such a bad thing
We've already seen where Rick Snyder's vaunted "Dashboards" proved that all the state's gains in 2011 and early 2012 had occurred in 2009 and 2010 -- the most recent years available for much of the data, but also Jennifer Granholm's last two years in office. Such evidence shows that her policies (along with federal help and the natural rise out of the 2008 trough) HAD succeeded after all; evidence that simply hadn't been collected and reported on two years ago.

In 2010 Michiganders were exasperated with "gridlock" in Lansing, where chronic disputes between the Governor's office, Andy Dillon's House and Mike Bishop's Senate led to two government shutdowns, posturing and a lot of good ideas that went nowhere*, even as the state's economy struggled, the housing crisis hit and the feds had to save GM and Chrysler.

The exasperation -- called "Granholm fatigue" by too many people at the time -- was a major factor in the GOP sweep of 2010.

Now, with the "inflamed duck" session done, everyone in Michigan has seen what a LACK of gridlock can cause. If you're a Democrat or Progressive (or an independent who really expected a "businessman" Governor to concentrate on, you know, BUSINESS, the economy and jobs), the Granholm era ain't looking half-bad.

It would have been interesting to see a few billboards with Granholm's portrait and the simple question: "Miss me yet?" Too bad George W. Bush's apologists got there first, because I'm pretty sure there are a million-plus Michiganders who'd answer "YES!"

[* The exception being the film industry tax incentives -- the one idea that DID show results and created thousands of jobs, after passing the Legislature by a vote of 147-to-Nancy Cassis. The fact that Snyder and the new GOP majorities sided with the Cassis mentality and gutted the incentives resulted in Michigan once again being a bit player in the volatile world of location shooting and studio development deals.]

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
No voter will be missing Granholm in 2014.

The point is that millions of dollars worth of GOP ads will be showing her face right next to Gretchen's with doom and gloom background music and a narrator reminding voters that Gretchen was a conspirator of Granholm's big spending and job killing agenda.

I've said it before I like Gretchen but:

A) She has always been in a safe seat thus has never had to run a real campaign or faced the microscope of being the "candidate" by the press.

B) The GOP will easily make it a vote in turning back to the Granholm days or staying the course, mind you the economy will be improving thanks to Snyder's "reforms".

C) She is a bomb thrower like Virg. It didn't work before against Snyder and it won't work again. You ain't going to beat him by going to the far left.

[ Parent ]
That would be the GOP strategy REGARDLESS of the Democrat
Millions in out-of-state "dark money" funding negative ads? Count on it, just as you can be sure that the ads will invoke Granholm and Obama in the most negative way possible, chaining them to our nominee in hopes they'll be anchors pulling the poll numbers underwater.

Oh, and when exactly did you ever "say it before" about Gretchen?

Your screen name was CREATED at 10:16 this morning!

Buh-Bye, Troll.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
Hmmm. I do not live on here so no I have not said it here it doesn't discredit anything.

Your stating the obvious like I have, a Whitmere for Gov campaign would be a vote on going back to the Granholm agenda because she is a bomb throwing liberal women that was in the legislature voting with Grnaholm. It is like giving them fish in a bucket.

That would certainly not be the frame if it was other democratic candidates. I would just encourage folks not to blindly head down that road the same way marched off the cliff with Virg.

[ Parent ]
Your constant re-use of "bomb-throwing" is a tell...you realize that, right?
Also, it seems your ability to use proper grammar and punctuation is deteriorating with every post.

As it turns out, both are valid answers to the question

"You might be a Conservative Troll IF...?"

Bottom line: Gretchen Whitmer is neither Virg Bernero nor Jennifer Granholm. If she runs, she is smart enough and competent enough to see such obvious traps and the likely lines of attack, and will have taken them into consideration (which is not the same thing as knowing how to counter them or win in spite of such attacks).

It won't be easy, but Rick Snyder has MADE IT EASIER by energizing Democrats and Progressives while alienating everyone who voted for him sight-unseen in 2010, thinking he'd be something other than a partisan hack and rubber-stamp for the Legislature and the special interests controlling them (from ALEC to AFP).

And THAT is the point of the original post -- NOT "Hey, it's time to start slandering Gretchen Whitmer."

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
So crazy, right this is about me and not a perfect reasonable point that she might not be the best candidate period.

Candidates don't get to be smart and avoid pitfalls, ads are made and played regardless. It goes back to the point she has always been in a safe seat, never the "candidate" but always the news fodder for quotes.

I reuses the term bomb throwing because that is what she does, on top to the soapbox and bombs away. Much the same way that Virg does, it might drive left wild but not so good for ticket spliters.

I am not going to respond more, it is clear we are talking about different things if you misunderstand critical synopsis as "slandering".

[ Parent ]
By the way
Gretchen has not passed a bill into law in 7 years. That is what I mean by bomb thrower she is not there to do work she is there to be on a soap box.

[ Parent ]
Selective Citation FAIL
Under Gov. Granholm the Michigan Senate -- under control of Republicans like Mike Bishop -- had no interest in passing laws written by minority Democrats.

Under Gov. Snyder, Senate Republicans have enjoyed a 26-12 supermajority under which they neither want nor need ANY Democratic input on ANYTHING.

You deride Sen. Whitmer for speaking out, and yet you clearly don't get that the "soap box" IS EXACTLY WHAT SHE IS THERE TO DO AS THE CHOSEN LEADER OF THE SENATE DEMOCRATS.

There is no other elected Democrat in Lansing in better position to advocate on behalf of Michiganders who rightly feel assaulted and abused by the Republicans' grip on power.

But do go on displaying your ignorance and hatred...Troll.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

[ Parent ]
I believe Senator Bieda had 7 bills signed into law this session and Rep. Durhal had 3.

Many members of the minority have found ways to pass public acts this session not to mention the two years the dems had control of the house. Unfortunately Gretchen has not found a way to pass a public act in 7 years. That is pretty amazing and ineffective.

[ Parent ]
How ignorant and hate spewing of me to point out how wrong you are. I mean facts aren't fun right, that's ok just mark me for trolling or discredited me with far out accusations of ignorance and hatred when you apparently didn't know that other members in the minority have passed many bills. How ignorant of me :)

[ Parent ]
I'd Even Dump Him as Mayor Right Now
Bernero spouted racial epithets on multiple occasions in, what, just the last year? He has no business at the top of the ticket.

[ Parent ]
One term nerd | 20 comments

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