Whitmer not running for governor

Well now...that should make BlueBoxing the Troll *VERY* Happy

As for the final question...Elephino.

We Dems really have no bench to speak of here, and apparently no one with even an outside chance of winning wants to risk his or her career challenging the Nerd.

If Sen. Carl Levin retires, I can see Gretchen Whitmer as a very strong candidate. As for Jocelyn Benson, I'd rather she run against Pat Colbeck as we try to gain ground in the state Senate.

Hell, why not Alma Wheeler Smith for Governor? At least she'd offer a real difference, and wouldn't embarrass us other than by the margin of her inevitable loss.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

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by: helzapoppn @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 17:15:58 PM UTC

Down ticket statewides

It seems to me that Interim Dean Benson is gearing up for another SoS run. Moreover, I think Jocelyn lives in Novi (not Northville) and therefore wouldn't be in the 7th Senate District.

I think the smart money is on Mark Bernstein for AG (why else would one spend 600K to get elected to a non-paying office?).

Additionally, we need to get some real top quality Supreme candidates.  Maybe this is where a Stupak or even Blanchard lend some name ID and heft to the ticket.

As for the 7th Senate District, that's pretty much Dian Slavens nomination if she wants it.  If Dian passes (I'd guess she's 70-30 to run for it) then it's safe to assume that John Stewart will run again but this time on the actual Dem ticket.

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by: 48101 Guy @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 18:23:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

This is a weird place. Thrilled, if there was a pathway for her to get to the guvs office she would have taken it but rightfully so there wasn't so she got out of the way.

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by: BlueBoxing @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 19:47:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What does that mean?

Thrilled, if there was a pathway for her to get to the guvs office she would have taken it but rightfully so there wasn't so she got out of the way.

You mean money from the Old Guys.

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by: LH @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 20:01:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In fairness

I disagree with Blue that there was no pathway. But I agree that such a pathway, whether its money and regardless of who it's from, is necessary.

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by: MIChange @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 20:04:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Apparently Not

Well now...that should make BlueBoxing the Troll VERY Happy

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by: LH @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 03:14:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good Question

Hopefully Mark Schauer is willing to step into the frontrunner position.  I have always thought Mark would make a great statewide candidate.  If he runs he needs to start now as he's going to need to raise a lot of money to build his name ID and then throw body blows at the "Nerd."

Mark Hackel's name has been mentioned and John Austin has mentioned his own name and of course there's the Virg wildcard. None of those names really jump out, although Hackel has good name ID in Metro Detroit. I really hope Virg doesn't see this as his greenlight for another run.

I don't see Gary Peters running for Gov as I'd bet he will wait for Carl Levin to retire before he leaves the House.  I get the impression that Dan Kildee wants to spend some time in the House before he looks at higher office.  The rest of the delegation isn't going anywhere (Stabenow) or is too old (Dingell, Conyers, Sandy) to run for statewide office.

We could try a re-tread with John Cherry or Bart Stupak.  Or do we have our own version of the "Nerd" that can emerge from outside of the normal channels?  No one really comes to mind in this category.

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by: 48101 Guy @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 18:14:46 PM UTC

Dem candidates

I'm afraid we are in a pretty bad spot without Sen. Whitmer. Virg, no. Cherry, no. Stupak is intriguing. Schauer lost all credibility to me when he cut that recent video suggesting the Legislature should "just get it done" on the road funding issue. Not sure what a John Austin candidacy would be like, but state school board seems an odd jump-off point. Not impossible, though, I'm sure.  

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by: MIChange @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 18:38:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its the KIDS?

Looks like the money people said, "No."
Jeez, am I jaded or what...

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by: LH @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 18:33:54 PM UTC

Whitmer for Lieutenant Governor?

That's certainly a possibility - if we nominate an African-American, Latino, or Asian-American (Hopgood?) for another office. (It's an unwritten rule that when it comes to the four Democratic nominees for Gov/LG/SoS/AG, at least one be non-Caucasian.)

There are 11 Democratic state senators right now, plus a safe Democratic seat that is vacant. Whitmer is one of three Democratic state Senators who are term-limited in 2014, the others being Tupac Hunter and Glenn Anderson. Hunter and Anderson have little to lose by running for Governor. At the same time, one of the others could leave a safe Senate seat to run for higher office, and if it doesn't work out, they can come back in 2018 or 2022 to run again for another Senate term.

On the House side, a few people stand out, although more for Lieutenant Governor or Attorney General than for Governor in 2014. Democratic Floor Leader Rudy Hobbs is well-respected among his colleagues. Rashida Tlaib is seen as an up-and-coming champion of progressive values. They are term-limited, as are Reps. Vicki Barnett, Kate Segal, Terry Brown, Fred Durhal, David Nathan, Dian Slavens, Doug Geiss, and Andrew Kandrevas.

How quickly many of us forget, however, that in this age of term limits, there are plenty of former lawmakers who might fit the bill. They include Oakland County Treasurer Andy Meisner and former Congressman Hansen Clarke, both of whom have relatively decent name recognition.

In any case, I remind you that John Engler was just a state senator before 1990.

In case you're wondering why I didn't mention Secretary of State: I have learned from multiple sources that Benson will make another run for Secretary of State.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 19:24:49 PM UTC

had to lol

at the notion of Hopgood, Hunter, Anderson, Segal, Durhal, Nathan or Clarke running for anything other than their current seats. wth!?

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by: MIChange @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 19:28:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I highly doubt any of them actually *will* run for Governor

...and I think it's unlikely that more than one of them (if even that) runs for one of the other statewide offices in 2014.

(I added Hopgood, an Asian-American to illustrate my point about diversity.)

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 19:48:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

power couple

Honestly, I like Mark Schauer, even though he's more conservative than I.

But what what about John Freeman? He ran last time.

And his wife Amy to replace Brewer? That might be a potent combination.

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by: William Allen Simpson @ Wed Jan 30, 2013 at 23:21:59 PM UTC

Amy?

Is boring.

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by: LH @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:05:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

Never heard of John Freeman before or his wife. Mark Schauer wins campaigns, stands up for his principles and raises a shit load of money.

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by: BlueBoxing @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 01:11:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

wins?

Except when he doesn't? And what principles is he standing up for when he cuts a video encouraging Dems to "just get it done" without regard to saving the GOP's ass when it comes to road funding?

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by: MIChange @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 14:26:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

.

losing in a tough district in 2010 the first year of citizens united isn't bad. He has flipped seats all the way to congress, my opinion is if any Democratic candidate can take out an incumbent statewide it is Schauer hands down. Losing once isn't a disqualifier and I wouldn't look any farther then to Debby or Gary Peters to prove that. I Googled the video and I would say the principles that he believed in when he voted for the funding like he said. Agree or not he is not a politician that bullshits people and tells them whatever they want to hear, leaders don't and most the Dems that get elected in marginal seats don't either that's how they get relected. Like how you can find Dems that say they like Amash because he is right on one social type thing but wrong everywhere else yet they know where he stands. It's the old "dammit I don't agree with him but one thing I will say is I always know where he stands" crap. I am not saying that is necessarily what is going on with road funding but I have certainly met a lot of Republicans that say Schauer is the only Dem they voted for because of those reasons.

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by: BlueBoxing @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 15:39:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just One Suggestion

Use paragraphs.

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by: LH @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 16:15:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Amy isn't boring, neither is John Freeman

Actually, I was surprised to visit Freeman's home (he lives near where I grew up) in 2008 and discovered he'd married Amy. I'd only ever met her in DC (and don't know how she developed a Michigan connection). But she's been involved in boots on the ground politics and fund-raising for awhile. If that's boring, we need more of that boring kinda stuff.

I supported Alma Wheeler in 2004 (alone and joined with Bonior) and again in 2010. But John Freeman was a good candidate, and I know a number of folks who supported him and even worked on his campaign.  

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by: William Allen Simpson @ Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 05:55:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

sorry, truncated some names

Unlike Mike McGuiness, I'm terrible at names. That's Amy Chapman. (Also, Alma Wheeler Smith.)

http://www.nytimes.com/1997/11...

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by: William Allen Simpson @ Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 06:01:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Coincidentally:

You misspelled my name! Hope you're doing well Mr. Simpson.

Amy Chapman was the 1996 coordinated campaign director in Michigan and worked for the AFL-CIO in various political functions in the past. If I recall correctly, that was the initial Michigan connection.


Great Lakes, Great Times.

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by: Michael McGuinness @ Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 16:44:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry about the misspelling

Thanks. Good information. Hope you're doing well, too.

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by: William Allen Simpson @ Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 18:26:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WAS

They are exceedingly competent, but they are truly boring. Sorry. That's OK, but its not for me.

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by: LH @ Sat Feb 02, 2013 at 19:39:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Honestly, I like Mark Schauer, even though he's more conservative than I."

That's two of us.  I got that same impression when I met him in 2007, but realized that he could win and was able to get things done.  I was very pleasantly surprised with him as my Representative in D.C.  He may not have been as progressive as I liked, but he was progressive enough.

Greetings from Detroit, Ground Zero of the post-industrial future!

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by: Neon Vincent @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 19:21:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Something

There has to be something she knows that she's never filled the public in on.  She's used this excuse to forgo campaigns twice, now, after leading people on.  I question the timing.  She instantly makes herself look weak in a body and minority that needs every last bit of strength it can grasp given that it's otherwise completely shut out of decision making.  This announcement was a really bad look.  Really, her threat to run was the only kind of leverage she had in any discussion with Snyder and Republicans.  Now, they really don't have to listen to her.  This is not a decision she or the party needed to make this soon.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 02:43:29 AM UTC

Good points

That said, I'm glad she dropped out in January 2013 instead of January 2014. I'd argue that Cherry's late exit from the 2010 race hurt us. Not that we would've won had he dropped out earlier (or declined to run altogether), but it sure didn't help.

Also, I doubt that her threatening to run gave Whitmer much clout in the first place. To wit: Right-to-Freeload.

I do agree with you that it is odd that she would use family circumstances as an excuse. That could indicate that she is not willing to run for AG either. I can't imagine that an AG campaign would be any less demanding than a campaign for Governor. (As you said, though, there may be something she is not telling us...)

Now, as I postulated above, the nominee for Governor may pick Whitmer for Lieutenant Governor to be a running mate. That would be a grueling campaign, but for a shorter timespan. Nonetheless, odds are that if Benson runs for SoS, Whitmer probably won't be #2 on our ticket unless we have a non-Caucasian nominee either for Governor or AG.

I predict that Whitmer will find different ways to build the progressive movement, continue to be an 'attack dog' against Snyder, serve as a surrogate for our nominee for Governor, and support other candidates. As she's doing this, she will build up IOUs that she can call in at a later date.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 03:45:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2010

I don't think a race like 2010 is comparable to 2014.  In my opinion, you want to get out a candidate before the other party does in an open election like 2010 was when you don't have a sitting governor or lt. governor running.  You want to get them out quick, because you don't usually know who the other candidate will be.  

In a race with against a sitting incumbent, I think it's better strategy to keep the incumbent guessing as to who the opponent will be for as long as possible.  You have more time in a conventional race (sitting incumbent) to make decisions, and if you pull the trigger too quickly and miss, it's a bad look.

While I'll concede that Gretchen pulling out doesn't necessarily hurt the party, I don't think it does it any good, either.  And, it definitely hurts the image of the candidate pulling out early.  

The outlines of the race against Snyder have long been apparent, and especially so since the RTW debacle.  I think Gretchen and the Dems could have playe the "will she/won't she" game (both knowing that she wasn't) for at least another six months while they worked out a candidat behind the scenes.  

I just think this premature pull-out doesn't help the party's chance in 2014, and definitely don't think it helps her future chances.  This is not the way you want to start out a campaign against Snyder, by running a campaign against him with your apparently strongest candidate in everything but name, and then aborting it two months later.  It's just not a good look.  An effective tease needs to be longer than this, and that's she's done this before using the same excuse just compounds the bad optics.

This party (and I'm not even talking about the party as a legal entity, but even just the individual players) has got to start getting more serious and coordinated.  Snyder and his legislature are in a near perpetual state of near-collapse, and it's a shame we haven't been able to capitalize off this.

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 04:51:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Inside Baseball

Well, it certainly looks like the Inside Baseball guys and gals are making up our minds for us. Again.

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by: LH @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 14:14:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm thinking of fundraising

I do agree that 2014 is no 2010 - for many reasons, not the least of which is that we have a challenger-versus-incumbent matchup rather than an open seat.

The reason I mentioned 2010 is that fundraising - especially for a tough, statewide campaign - is such a huge, time-consuming project that it seems better to get it started sooner rather than later. Cherry's exit in 2010 was a green light for other candidates (except Alma, who got in months before Cherry did). It's possible that Whitmer's exit now gives others a green light of sorts - Whitmer would have been formidable against any opponent in the primary.

I also disagree that it hurts her image to say 'no' right now. I do think it would have really hurt had she announced (or formed an exploratory committee) and then pulled out shortly thereafter. But as it is, I'm not quite seeing how this hurts her, if at all.

Maybe it does hurt her, but I don't see how.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 01:32:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The problem with 2010 was that John Cherry DID get started sooner

Pretty much all of 2009, John Cherry was making the rounds of County and District Democratic organizations, lining up endorsements, locking up fundraising and doing most everything expected of a presumptive frontrunner.

This "inevitable" run froze out other likely candidates, other than Alma Wheeler Smith. Virg Bernero and Andy Dillon were only "exploring" challenges at the end of 2009 -- but no one expected them to make it official once the Cherry campaign truly got started.

Cherry's abrupt exit in January 2010 wasn't so much a green light as a panic button, leaving Democrats with (as it turned out) few viable options. This became more and more obvious every time we'd talk up someone -- Dennis Archer, Denise Ilitch, Dan Kildee, even Geoff Feiger -- only to have that person bask for a few days, then demur.

We mocked Rick Snyder for his Super Bowl ad, assuming he'd flame out and our nominee would be able to run to the center against a proven hard-liner like MiCox or Pete Hoekstra, but the joke was on us.

Jump to 2013. I'm glad Sen. Whitmer dropped out now rather than spend the year enjoying the status of presumptive frontrunner...and THEN dropping out. It's unfortunate that we couldn't have had someone else give the Democratic response to Snyder's State of the State address -- Mark Schauer could have used the visibility -- but that's a minor quibble.

By not running now, Whitmer remains viable for 2016 and 2018 -- which is not a bad thing.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

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by: helzapoppn @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 14:33:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gretchen

Right to Work is actually a large part of what propelled her to the forefront of the statewide conversation, as opposed to an indictment of her effectiveness.  

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by: MIChange @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 14:36:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I was responding to this:

Really, her threat to run was the only kind of leverage she had in any discussion with Snyder and Republicans.  Now, they really don't have to listen to her.

It seems that if her possible candidacy gave her that leverage, Right-to-Freeload (and some of the other bad stuff passed during "Inflamed Duck") would not have gone through. Instead, it appears that she had no leverage to lose by declining a run.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 01:37:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Missed the point

You missed my point.  It was the passing of Right-to-Work, and then her subsequent threat of running that would have kept her relevant.  You know, one of those situations where you personally win by losing.  She fully embodied the anger everyone was feeling; now, she's just one of 11 inconsequential state senators, again.  

They don't have to fear that attacking her - or worse, ignoring her - will make her stronger for a possible run.  They can just go back to plain ignoring her and telling her that she's getting "emotional" with far less electoral and political consequence.  So long as she was assumed a possible candidate, they had to worry and be careful about how they attacked her.  

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 02:53:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

THANK YOU!

I was going to make a comment to this effect but I have nothing to add nor to subtract from what you wrote.

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by: MIChange @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 14:28:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmmm

I've said all along that I wouldn't be making this decision alone, but rather would be doing it along with my family, and in particular, what's best for my 2 girls.

Funny, I don't remember reading or hear her ever say anything to that effect.

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by: LH @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 19:55:56 PM UTC

Well, she's always made clear that she considers herself a mother first

There've been a few stories in the media that have said this. And, I believe it was her rationale for foregoing the AG's race in 2010.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Thu Jan 31, 2013 at 20:08:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

But if this is the case, than don't tease a run.  She had young children in 2010, and they were still going to be young in 2014, too.  It's why I don't buy the excuse, and I think it also does quite a bit of damage to female politicians, confirming for the chauvinists the false belief that female professionals with children can't have it all.  This was kind of a disaster all the way around.

---

by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 01:28:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think so

I don't think it's done any long-term damage. Yesterday, this was the story of the day. Today, no one can remember yesterday's story of the day.

Among the Trees

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by: Eric B. @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 03:28:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We're not talking about your average newsie

We're talking about people like myself who follow political news.  It's not the average voter she has to  be concerned about, but people like me who were in her corner, but now starting to seriously question her competence and political acument.  I was a big Gretchen fan, and that she's done this twice has me raising serious questions as to whether she's the real deal or destined for no spot higher than her current office.  

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by: MiddleGrandGuy @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 04:04:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Double Standard

Women professionals with children can only have it all if their husbands are willing to step up and take responsibility for the child raising.  Granholm and her husband seemed to be able to balance things while she was governor however since Whitmer was/is divorced from her first husband, I am suspecting that there are some issues that cropped up there that she didn't anticipate during the buildup to the AG race.

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by: jaramil4 @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 14:51:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Umm...

Well although its sad that Gretchen has pulled out of the race, all is not lost yet. Regardless to how some will feel uneasy, Virg Bernero will give it another go in 2014, guaranteed. A dark horse (not announced in anyway) could be Jeff Irwin out of Ann Arbor.

He's young, got connections and being from Snyder's hometown will definitely split the Washtenaw County area (part of Livingston Cty. too) pretty well. Ms. Wheeler Smith could easily give it another go, Gary Peters -- maybe, and Mark Schauer -- probably.

Either way the bench needs to be warming up now because Snyder will be WELL financed.  

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by: IUNewsTalk @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 07:11:25 AM UTC

Our Options in 2014

Democrats really have two routes in challenging Rick Snyder:

One is to go all-in, throwing money and manpower behind a candidate and engaging in a partisan, bare-knuckle street fight against an entrenched incumbent ("WELL financed" as noted above) in a state with an economy that will be better than it was four years ago* -- and probably lose.

Two is to line up behind a candidate who won't embarrass us, is free of scandal and can build up positive support for our downballot races -- that person will also lose, but overall Democrats might be a lot more successful.

Alma Wheeler Smith is the epitome of Option Two. Alma has a good story to tell, and would present a challenge to the typical Republican strategy of character assassination and fearmongering. Hers would be a more positive, uplifting campaign, a marked contrast from the combative style of Virg Bernero or the back-slapping "GOP-lite" approach of an Andy Dillon. She'd also break new ground by being the first person of color at the top of the ticket.

I have little doubt she'd lose to Snyder -- but I suspect that, RTW notwithstanding, NO ONE can beat him barring scandal or some other Act of God, so the likelihood of losing doesn't scare me.

In this scenario, Democrats can work extra hard to put up stronger downballot candidates, with an eye towards 2016 and winning the Senate and Governor's office in 2018 (which, if successful, would put Democrats in charge of the next redistricting after the 2020 Census).

Of course, the only downside is history -- in 2010 Ms. Wheeler Smith couldn't even collect enough petition signatures to get on the ballot. And now she's four years further removed from the spotlight.

* Yes, yes, I know Snyder doesn't deserve credit for turning the state around. Jennifer Granholm laid the foundation, and the nationwide recovery under Barack Obama is responsible for the rest. But Snyder will take the credit anyway -- ain't nothing we can do about that without sounding like Romney last year (and we know how THAT turned out).

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

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by: helzapoppn @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 15:10:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Can we please stop trying to concede 2014?

This is February 1, 2013. We still have 641 days until November 4, 2014.

Just a few weeks ago, an accurate polling firm showed Snyder losing badly to several Democrats - three of whom (Bernero, Peters, and Schauer) will either likely run or might run. Plus, let's remember that this is a Democratic leaning state. Yet people are already ready to concede.

"But Snyder has money!" So did DeVos in 2006 and the Kochs in 2012.

Even if Snyder looks difficult to beat at this time, remember Blanchard in 1990 and Bush in 1992.

And people wonder why we lose elections - it's hard to win them if we concede them so early!

(This was not meant toward you specifically; it's more of a general rant.)

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 16:30:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Spot on

I for one do not think 2014 is already written and I wouldn't recommend putting Alma up to make a losing point.

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by: BlueBoxing @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 16:46:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK

Let's not concede 2014, but let's also not fall into the trap that snared Willard "Mitt" Romney -- believing your own press releases and internal polling, and then cherry-picking data points to match overconfident predictions.

Gov. Rick Snyder is a flawed incumbent, a lying hypocrite who alienated many in the coalition that elected him and has approval ratings consistently under 50%.

But he is still the incumbent, the state economy will likely be better than it was when he took office -- and our "veal pen" media can't seem to put a scratch on the guy's relentlessly positive BS Teflon overcoat.

"The two most common elements in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity." ~ Harlan Ellison

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by: helzapoppn @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 19:03:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree that it won't be easy

As you said, the economy is not tanking anymore, and even so, it is never easy to knock off an incumbent for any office, much less Governor.

However, I have noticed a number of people say that we're toast with regards to 2014. Last night, I saw a former state lawmaker post on Facebook that he thought Snyder would win, and that Right-to-Freeload would actually help him. My post was more of a general reply to that and other related comments.

It is ridiculous to predict the outcome of an election 21 weeks before, much less 21 months before. It is even more ridiculous to think that a governor who is so unpopular as to be losing by several points in head-to-head matchups against people with low name recognition, cannot be beaten.

Perhaps people are frustrated about Gretchen not running, and indeed I am disappointed that 2014 will not be her year - but we cannot take her decision as a sign that we've already lost the governorship.

Now is not the time to give up. We need to do all we can right now to lay the groundwork for 2014.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 20:40:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Truth

This is about all the way accurate. Snyder is damn near unbeatable and the last paragraph above is the main reason why. Unlike his counterparts elsewhere, like Walker and Kasich, Snyder has implemented the GOP agenda with MUCH less backlash.

The lame duck / RTW fiasco was genius! Huge protest, a bunch of bad press that was blunted by Christmas / New Year. Now? You've got House Dems nearly unanimously voting for Bolger, several Dems openly contemplating supporting his road funding scheme.. and the whole time, he and his folks probably knew that with a new Legislature coming in, the pressure would be on the new Dems to "move forward," "seek bipartisanship," and "extend the olive branch." (All weak-kneed BS by the way).

For the reasons listed above I've never paid Alma Wheeler Smith much attention, but it certainly would be hard for them to attack her character and she really is an exceptionally nice individual. Could that improve things in the House and Senate races? I don't know.

Control of the Senate is actually in reach in '14 for Dems. It's not likely, but it's there.

---

by: MIChange @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 16:48:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Turnout, turnout, turnout.

It all depends on turnout. 2.5 million voters voted for Obama, with Romney only getting 2.1 million. In a good year for Republicans, Snyder still only got fewer than 1.9 million voters - including some from Democrats. Those Democrats who voted for him - as well as many of the 'swing' voters who voted for him (and most swing voters did vote for him) - have learned that Snyder is no different from your typical politician.

Unable to count on some of those Democratic and swing votes, Snyder needs to count on Democrats not showing up (a la 2010).

I've said elsewhere that a governor who is losing hypothetical head-to-head matchups against little-known Democrats cannot be considered unbeatable, especially in a state with more Democrats than Republicans, especially 21 months out.

That said, given the way things have been gerrymandered, I do not see a scenario in which Democrats take back either house of the Legislature unless our candidate for Governor does well.

2014 will be a game of turnout - either we have good turnout and our entire ticket does well, or we don't. We need out voters to turn out in places with competitive Senate and/or House districts (Muskegon, Kalamazoo, Grand Rapids, Saginaw), as well as in places like Detroit and Flint.

If we act like Snyder is unbeatable, then we might as well act like we can't take back the Legislature, either. Neither is excusable - especially so long before an election.

Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott

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by: ScottyUrb @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 21:41:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Feminism and politics

I almost stayed off the soapbox and let this series of commets die out but yet... I like windmills and tilting.

Gretchen Whitmer's choice to not run for Governor isn't a blow for women. It doesn't mean that feminism is dead and it certainly doesn't mean that her political career is over. What it means is that she is making a choice, based on factors both public and private, to seek employment and opportunity in a field that best meets her needs. SHE is making the decision, not you - not me.

Gretchen has ascended, through hard work and damn good media savvy, to the top of the pack in her current chosen profession. I have no doubt that she would be at the top of whatever pack she chooses - maybe in a few years, she'll go to  medical school and cure lupus (which would be awesome - do that).  

We're surfing the third wave of feminism these days and women define what feminism is to them. I'm pretty sure the next wave is going to be a tsunami, too. /rant

Do stupid people know they are stupid?

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by: JPowers155 @ Fri Feb 01, 2013 at 17:07:52 PM UTC