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Rick Snyder poll numbers down, but who really cares

by: Eric B.

Tue Feb 12, 2013 at 18:50:18 PM EST

Since Right to Work, as most of us might have expected.

LANSING — A poll released to the Free Press today suggests that support for Gov. Rick Snyder dropped sharply after he did an about-face in December and backed the speedy passage of controversial right-to-work legislation.

The poll by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, released exclusively to the Free Press and WXYZ-TV (Channel 7), found that 61% of Michigan voters surveyed between Feb. 5 and Feb. 10 gave Snyder a negative job rating, while 36% gave him a positive rating.

Tomorrow, we can expect a Mitchell poll, from the same folks who helped the inmates at Henry Payne's Museum for Half-Formed Thoughts to conclude that Willard might win Michigan, to say the direct opposite.

Still, does this really make a difference. The person who would make the most formidable opponent next year, Mark Schauer, didn't sound exactly excited at the chance to be governor on Off the Record; and beyond that decades of ineffective bench building have left the Democrats otherwise without a credible challenger. Snyder might as well be polling at 10 percent right now with the stable of candidates other than Schauer that the Dems are talking about hurling at him.

Eric B. :: Rick Snyder poll numbers down, but who really cares
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Ballenger had similar numbers in his recent newsletter
Inside Michigan Politics included a robo-poll we conducted that showed Snyder trailing both Mark Schauer and Debbie Stabenow by a few percentage points.

It's a long time to the election, but I'm beginning to think the best metaphor for Snyder will be Charybdis and Scylla - he needs to sail as close as possible to one threat, in order to give himself a chance of surviving the other.

In this case, he has both a potential Republican primary, and a serious Democratic competitor to worry about.  He can't steer completely clear of either of them, because that course would run him straight into the other.

By that I mean:  he can steer either left (to appease the Democrats in November) or right (to buy off the Tea Party yahoos) but instead has to try to thread his way between them.  His recent maneuvers, endorsing Obamacare's Medicaid expansion and calling for a substantial tax increase to fix the roads, look like an effort to atone for his previous pandering to the far right.

How will this all work out?  My guess is Snyder will announce 14 months from now that his agenda has been dealt with, and he wants to go back to the world of private business.  We'll see if I'm right, but I wanted to stake my prediction.

I actually thought the lameduck session was what Snyder did in order to keep from getting primaried by the Republicans.  He got DeVos behind him by what he did.

[ Parent ]
Even more
Even more than that, it was rumored that Devos - or at least people in his camp - was threatening to primary Snyder and get Senate Republicans to oust Richardville in the next session (this new session) if they didn't put RTW on their agenda.  

[ Parent ]
This is either the third or fourth poll since the RTW debacle that shows Snyder in a precarious position.  Still loads of time to make up some ground, but it looks like this being a blue state, there is no way he's going to make up as much ground to not have 2014 be a competitive race regardless of the Democratic candidate.  This isn't going to be a 20-point blow-out, again, not even close.

I don't see our bench as
ineffective. We have credible candidates, they just don't want to run. Whitmer would've been a better candidate than Schauer, but it's not the right time for her.  The Dems in Congress don't want to give up their Washington gigs to run for Governor when history tells us that flipping the Governor's chair is less likely after one term, but chances of flipping it are greatly increased once an incumbent Gov is termed out.

Stabenow would be a good alternative, but my guess is she doesn't want to run for Governor.  

Bench isn't ineffective it's non-existent
Mark Schauer isn't going to run for governor and there's no bench to speak of. A huge gap.  Truth is MDP doesn't think it has a role in developing statewide candidates. No down and out vision for 2014. MDP is a mechanic not an engineer.  

[ Parent ]
Just curious
Why are you certain Schauer won't run? I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just interested to know what makes you say that.

I know Tim Skubick thinks he doesn't have "fire in his belly," but I didn't really see anything in Schauer's OTR appearance that indicated one way or another.

[ Parent ]
Actually, his OTR appearance suggested Schauer will run.
People don't accept talk-show dates if they're genuinely unsure what they want to do.  They may be unsure whether they can put together the money and institutional support, or whether their poll numbers will prove out.  Or - more rarely - they accept a slot in order to keep their name before the public and press in order to be positioned for something else.

But nobody who appears on TV is actually thinking, inside their own heads, "Does this make sense?  Wouldn't it be better to take the job X has offered me, and drop out of the rat-race?"  They resolve those questions long before.

Schauer, at this moment, is running.  He may change his mind, if things don't work out, but he's devoting a substantial share of his time and energy to trying to make the run against Snyder workable.

[ Parent ]
Here's a ticket
Sen. Stabenow does not have to give up her seat to run. If she loses, she just goes back to D.C She has name recognition and has won statewide. She's perfect. Mark Schauer would be a great LT. because he is a great campaigner and can win with moderate Republicans, if they still exist. Even if Mark is our nominee, I think we can win. Sen. Whitmer would be a great AG.

Communications Guru The Conservative Media http://liberalmedianot.blogspot.com

[ Parent ]
I don't think Debbie gives it a second thought.
She's settled down, and happy to be an important figure in Washington.  She only has to run every six years, and the next  race is far in the future.  Eighteen years in the U.S. Senate, and an option to try to make it 24, if she wants.

Coming back to Michigan to campaign, while continuing to participate in the Senate, would be a huge pain, and require immense exertion.  She's beaten five incumbents (Gordon Swix, Tom Holcomb, Bill Sederburg*, Dick Chrysler, and Spence Abraham) - but I can't imagine she want to try to make Snyder her sixth.  She's thinking about national politics, not state.

(*Technically, Sederburg decided not to run for re-election, but he was looking at the same polls Debbie was, and everybody knew it was hopeless.)

[ Parent ]
Plus, there's seniority
...and the fact that she chairs the Agriculture Committee. Why would she want to spend time campaigning for an office which, if elected, would force her to leave behind her seniority and influence? She wouldn't, unless Democrats are really that desperate for a candidate. (Notice that she didn't even run in 2010.)

That's also why I don't expect Peters to run for Governor. Maybe Senate, if Levin retires, but not Governor in 2014. (For those who don't know, Peters is in charge of candidate recruitment for the DCCC and is also a deputy whip - not bad for a guy in only his third term in the House.)

Now on Great Lakes, Great Times, Great Scott: Cotter vs. Jesus and Reagan

[ Parent ]

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