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Prediction: Lon Johnson Wins in Landslide, Lawrence Named First Vice Chair.

by: Michael McGuinness

Fri Feb 22, 2013 at 17:43:38 PM EST

Come tomorrow, if the vote truly takes place and there are no last minute "arrangements" to avoid the direct choice between the two announced candidates for Michigan Democratic Party Chair, I predict that Lon Johnson will be elected by a wide margin.

The reason I am confident in this prediction is Michigan Democratic Party apportioned delegate math. This prediction is not contingent upon any upholding of the Appeals Committee decision on the 1,300-ish memberships question. His victory is well in-hand regardless of their being credentialed (more on that below).

By far, the largest pots of apportioned delegate strength per the Michigan Democratic Party rules and formula are:

Congressional District 5.
Congressional District 9.
Congressional District 12.
Congressional District 13.
Congressional District 14.

From those five congressional districts, I anticipate that Mr. Johnson wins these district votes by substantial margins. The margin in the Detroit-anchored districts 13 and 14 alone will probably be brutally pro-Johnson. Dare I postulate over 80 percent?

And with that, coupled with solid numbers throughout the rest of the districts (even if it means absorbing losses in District 1, 2, 4 or elsewhere) I anticipate he'll win the overall race by a large margin.

Again, my expectation of that outcome is not contingent on the 1,300-plus UAW member deluge. Bearing in mind that I have no knowledge of who those members are or where they are 'from' I don't anticipate that many were likely to attend or were being counted upon for victory. I believe that it was in part a psychological effort to convey organizational might beyond what will fully materialize in Cobo Hall.

Finally, I predict that Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence will be selected as the Michigan Democratic Party First Vice Chair. State party rules require the first vice chair be of the opposite sex. As the caucasian Mr. Johnson presently calls northern Michigan home, a southeastern Michigan woman of color is most likely. Mayor Lawrence, the 2010 Democratic Party nominee for Lieutenant Governor, is a longtime and familiar presence for many party activists in metro Detroit and statewide. While losing in the 2012 Democratic primary to Congressman Gary Peters has undoubtedly hurt her standing in his eyes and with some of his supporters, for a metro Detroit Democratic politician she has relatively very few strong detractors within the party base or the general media.

By the way, did people notice that the Michigan Democratic Party First Vice Chair Tina Abbott has endorsed Mr. Brewer's opponent? Wow.
Mayor Lawrence has also endorsed Mr. Johnson.

Whether my prediction is folly or not, I hope it remains a respectable, organized and democratic affair.

My long-term hope is that the state and party are the stronger for the change. Best wishes to all.

Agree or disagree with the prediction? Particular insight into the various districts? Share away!

Michael McGuinness :: Prediction: Lon Johnson Wins in Landslide, Lawrence Named First Vice Chair.
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Post-Script Upon Further Reflection:
If the additional memberships are in fact tossed, I could envision a scenario where the Ninth District is a toss-up as to outcome... but not to the point where my statewide forecast would change.

Great Lakes, Great Times.

I always thought Tina Abbott was Mark's right-hand gal.
Shows you what I know about the dynamics of some of these things.

Anyhow, in another thread I said I have hard evidence that the 6th is going about 60-40 for Lon. And the Sixth is pretty middle-of-the-road for Michigan, not strongly minority, or strongly union, but not wall-to-wall suburban/rural either.

So if we get to District 7 or 8 in the roll call and Lon is ahead, even by a little, then it's really settled.

My prediction in Grebner's poll thread was Lon by 62%-38% in the proportional vote. We'll see how that holds up.

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